KEMPTON – MARCH 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £108.60 (9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are listed in brackets:
Race 1: 39.6% units went through – 8, 11/4* & 12/1
Race 2: 19.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 – win only (9/4)
Race 3: 46.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1, 13/2, 12/1, 12/1 (11/2)
Race 4: 40.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/2****, 9/2**** & 5/1 (2 x 9/2****)
Race 5: 48.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/4*, 4/1 & 9/1
Race 6: 97.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/7*, 12/1 & 6/1
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (1.30): 5 (Grapevine), 8 (Sao) & 4 (Going Gold)
Leg 2 (2.05): 2 (Copain De Classe) & 3 (Kayf Blanco)
Leg 3 (2.40): 4 (Azzerti), 3 (Kildisart) & 1 (Zubayr)
Leg 4 (3.15): 1 (Bun Doran), 2 (Kilcrea Vale) & 5 (Cepage)
Leg 5 (3.50): 2 (Chosen Path) & 1 (Champagne Champ)
Leg 6 (4.25): 9 (Invicta Lake) & 3 (Allee Bleue)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 6-4 via eleven contests to date and with GOING GOLD on offer at 18/1 (Bet365) this morning, Richard Hobson’s Gold Well gelding offers some value in the opening event on the card, certainly from a Placepot perspective at least. Paul Nicholls (maintaining his good trend on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival) saddles the first of his seven runners on the card (SAO) after snaring a 220/1 double at Prestbury Park on Friday. That all said, Nicky Henderson has won the last three renewals of this race when represented, whereby GRAPEVINE is the first name on the team sheet.
Favourite factor: Nine of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include five winners. Seven of the eleven winners have been sent off at odds of 7/4 or less though it’s not all good news as far as short priced horses in the race are concerned. A Paul Nicholls 1/10 chance was beaten by the minimum margin by a 16/1 outsider nine years ago.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/1—Mere Ironmonger (good)
2.05: Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden on 10-13 which narrows the ‘short field’ contest from five down the three if you take the weight trend seriously. Given that the handicapper might have caught up with Deauville Dancer now, we are left with COPAIN DE CLASSE and KAYF BALNCO to assess. I’m going to leave that to you to evaluate from a win perspective, suffice to say that both horses figure in my Placepot permutation. New readers might want to know that the term 'short field' relates to a race which is contested by 5/6/7 runners, whereby just the first and second horses 'qualify' from toteplacepot/each way perspectives.
Favourite factor: Five of the twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include four winning favourites.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
2.40: Might Bite won this event two years ago, though the chances of finding a Gold Cup contender this time around (let alone the favourite for the Blue Riband event) is slim to put it mildly. Upwards and onward by suggesting that AZZERTI and KILDISART stand out from the crowd here, especially as all four winners to date carried a minimum burden of 11-6. Course winner ZUBAYR is added into the mix, despite the fact that the relevant claimer will take the weight down to 11-5 if Lorcan Williams resists an almighty fry-up this morning!
Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite via four contests to date, whilst two market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winner in the third contest:
1/1—Zubayr (good to soft)
3.15: The ten runners that Tom George subsequently saddled after the trainer landed the opening race of the Cheltenham Festival were all beaten, albeit eight of those inmates were sent off at 20/1 or more. That puts matters into perspective whereby I will be adding Tom’s raider BUN DORAN into the mix, alongside Nicky Henderson’s consistent eight-year-old KILCREA VALE, especially as two of the last three winners of this contest have carried a minimum burden of 11-7. Tom saddled last year’s winner for good measure. The alternative each way option is CEPAGE at around the 16/1 mark.
Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for five unplaced favourites via four renewals thus far, albeit two of the four co-favourites twelve months ago filled the forecast positions at when sent off at 9/2.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/5—Favorito Buck’s (good)
3.50: Six-year-olds have won six of the nine renewals to date, with five-year-olds mopping up the other four contests. A few of these could have scrambled into a race at the Festival I guess, with six-year-old CHAMPAGNE CHAMP being one them. That said, Alan King has won two renewals of late and his raider CHOSEN PATH looks to be the horse to beat this afternoon.
Favourite factor: Nine of the ten favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include four successful market leaders.
4.25: INVICTA LAKE has failed to win in over three years now though his Placepot potential in this grade/company is there for all to see. A similar comment applies to ALLEE BLEUE I guess in a disappointing Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety, securing Placepot positions along the way.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Specific trainer details for Kempton on Saturday:
7 runners—Paul Nicholls (Stats: Current season: 13/34 – Five year: 40/173)
Sao (1.30), Copain De Classe (2.05), Zubayr (2.40), Orbasa & Favorito Back’s (3.15), Cearel Killer (3.50) & Rhythm Is A Dancer (5.00)
3 runners—Nicky Henderson (Stats: 12/44 & 62/230)
Grapevine (1.30), Kilcrea Vale (3.15) & Mister Fisher (5.00)
Dan Skelton will be hoping for a change of luck as the trainer offers stats this season of 0/25 at the Sunbury circuit, with a record of 8/109 during the last five years – 6 runners today
Colin Tizzard (out of interest) does not have any runners (anywhere) until Monday after his exploits at Cheltenham yesterday. Do you suppose that the trainer knew that he was going to have to put some time aside for celebrations this weekend? Happy St Patrick’s Day!
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell: £91.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £152.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £139.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced