NEWBURY - AUGUST 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £12.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.20): 4 (Fast And Hot), 8 (Doctor Bartolo) & 6 (Nathan)
Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Another Batt), 5 (Red Mist) & 6 (Ventura Knight)
Leg 3 (2.25): 8 (Defoe) & 5 (Wall Of Fire)
Leg 4 (3.00): 14 (Graphite Storm), 10 (Noble Peace) & 9 (Hyde Park)
Leg 5 (3.35): 7 (Nathra), 9 (Sir Dancealot) & 1 (Breton Rock)
Leg 6 (4.05): 4 (Gold Star) & 2 (Erdogan)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.20: Just a warning that we were hit with very heavy showers overnight here in Bristol and if any of them ventured up the M4 corridor to Newbury, the going will be extremely testing today. FAST AND HOT needs to revert back to some form of his old though that said, this five time Richard Hannon trainer has served up most of his best work with moisture in the ground and as just one of two course winners in the field, Richard’s Fastnet Rock gelding is offered as the value for money call. Connections might have most to fear from fellow course winner DOCTOR BARTOLO and NATHAN as the leading runners home in on the jamstick.
Favourite Factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite finished out of the money in fourth placed behind horses which filled the frame at 14/1-14/1-8/1. The balance was son put right however when last year’s 9/4 mark leader duly obliged.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/2—Fast And Hot (soft)
1/1—Doctor Bartolo (good to firm)
1.50: 12 of the last 14 winners were sent off at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include eight successful favourites of one description or another. Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last eleven winners whereby Mark’s Casamento colt VENTURA KNIGHT will be included in my Placepot equation. ANOTHER BATT appears to handle the ground whereby another Placepot position should be snared, though we have no prove that RED MIST will be seen to best effect under the conditions, though there was plenty to like about his victory at the first time of asking.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged during the last 17 years. 10 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
2.25: Nine of the last seventeen favourites have won whilst four-year-olds have snared six of the last twelve renewals of this ‘Geoffrey Freer’ event. Vintage representatives are 1/2 to continue their good results, though with three-year-old soft ground winner DEFOE having been declared, I might have to swerve my usual ‘trend based’ selection on this occasion. The pick of the older runners could prove to be WALL OF FIRE at an each way price of around 12/1 at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include nine winners. Eight of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.
Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:
1/1—Agent Murphy (good to soft)
1/2—Frontiersman (good to firm)
3.00: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals which makes for impressive reading as only 25% (31/123) of the relevant fields were made up of junior representatives. Only two relevant horses (in a sixteen strong field) are set to go to post, with both HYDE PARK and GRAPHITE STORM needing to return to ‘yesteryear’ from to become involved at the business end of proceedings today. That said, this self-confessed ‘anorak’ will adhere to the trends, especially as the latter named Clive Cox raider has (at least) won under good to soft conditions in the past. NOBLE PEACE is the other short listed runner in the field.
Favourite factor: Three of the last fourteen favourites have won, results which came as a welcome relief to punters as three of the previous four winners had scored at 25/1-20/1-16/1.
Draw factor (seven furlongs – most recent result listed first):
5-14-9-12 (16 ran-good to firm)
2-8-13 (9 ran-good to soft)
4-2-1 (9 ran-good to soft)
1-13-2 (14 ran-good)
12-1-2 (14 ran-good to firm)
14-1-10 (15 ran-good)
2-7-4 (9 ran-good to soft)
4-5-2 (9 ran-good to firm)
7-9-4 (11 ran-good to soft)
13-14-12 (14 ran-good to soft)
13-8-12 (12 ran-good to soft)
13-9-12 (15 ran-good to firm)
14-7-15-2 (16 ran-good)
4-6-3 (10-good to firm)
15-6-2 (15 ran-good to firm)
12-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)
9-1-4 (9 ran-good to firm)
14-5-7-13 (18 ran-good)
6-2-7 (9 ran-good)
8-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:
1/2—Graphite Storm (good to soft)
1/3—Mullionheir (good to soft)
3.35: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals, though three-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests of this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, despite the fact that no junior runners were involved twelve months ago. We can surely dismiss the fanciful trade press quote of NATHRA who makes most appeal with ground conditions unlikely to worry the connections of John Gosden and his team. We can put a line through the Stewards’ Cup form of SIR DANCEALOT because of problems the second the stalls opened at Goodwood, whilst a case can also be made for BRETON ROCK to confirm the form of his Goodwood victory on this ground.
Favourite factor: Four clear marker leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last seventeen years. Nine of the nineteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Draw factor (seven furlongs):
6-3 (6 ran-good to firm)
2-13-7 (11 ran-good to soft)
6-2 (6 ran-good to soft)
5-4 (5 ran-good)
4-10-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
3-7-11 (9 ran-good)
6-9 (7 ran-good to soft)
6-4-10 (9 ran-good to firm)
4-2-6 (9 ran-good to soft)
3-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)
8-2 (7 ran-good to soft)
8-3-5 (9 ran-good)
7-11-6 (13 ran-good)
4-5-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
6-3-8 (10 ran-good to firm)
6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)
5-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-2 (7 ran-good)
4-2-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
Record of the course winners in the Hungerford Stakes:
1/4—Breton Rock (good to soft)
4.05: Roger Varian has saddled three winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years and there will be worse outsiders on the card than ZEELANDER I’ll wager. That said, more logical winners appear to include GOLD STAR and ERDOGAN who was touted up a long time ago as being something special.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newbury card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: This is essentially a new meeting
Doncaster: £24.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Newmarket: £28.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced
Ripon: £163.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Market Rasen: £18.50: £18.50 – 7 favourites – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Perth: £560.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced