NEWBURY – MAY 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £131.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 46.4% units went through – 3/1* & 4/1
Race 2: 25.7% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 – 7/1 – 11/1 (5/2)
Race 3: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 7/2* - 9/1
Race 4: 67.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/2 – 25/1
Race 5: 48.8% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* & 20/1
Race 6: 27.5% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4 & 15/2 (2/1)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Shababby), 4 (Juliet Capulet) & 3 (Eqtidaar)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Crystal Ocean) & 2 (Raheen House)
Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Chief Ironside), 7 (He’s Amazing) & 3 (Dukhan)
Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Addeybb), 4 (Beat The Bank) & 12 (Suedois)
Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Itstheonlyway) & 6 (The Irish Rover)
Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (Stream Song), 4 (Crystal Hope) & 2 (Arcadian Cat)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
1.50 (Carnarvon Stakes): 'Team Hannon' has secured three of the last eight contests, though it’s a big ask for 33/1 chance All Out to improve the ratio this time around in what I consider to be the best race on the card. That would not be difficult given the line up in the Lockinge this season which media commentators will no doubt describe as a wonderful renewal! Upwards and onward by suggesting that SHABAABY, JULIET CAPULET and EQTIDAAR should all be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, the trio having been listed in order of preference. Owen Burrows (Shabaaby) secured a 13/2 double on the Newmarket card yesterday, his recent ratio now standing at 4/9. Accordingly, 8/1 looks a tad too big about Owen’s Kyllachy colt, albeit the ground remains an unknown factor given his two soft going successes to date.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last thirteen years during which time, ten gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.
2.25 (Aston Park Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 11 of the last 20 renewals of this Listed staying event and vintage representatives CRYSTAL OCEAN and RAHEEN HOUSE look sure to go close this time around. The odds are extremely cramped about the first named Sir Michael Stoute raider, though the 11/2 quote (across the board early doors this morning) fopr RAHEEN HOUSE represents a potential each way play given the 11/8 place price in this ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have reached the frame (five winners), whilst the previous 18 winners had scored at odds of 8/1 or less before the 2016 gold medallist reared its ugly head at 14/1.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
2/4—Scarlet Dragon (Good to firm & good to soft)
3.00: The last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 whereby CHIEF IRONSIDE (drawn 1/11), HE’S AMAZING (9) and DUKHAN (2) will represent yours truly in my Placepot permutation on Saturday. Horses drawn in the lowest three stall positions have produced five of the last seven winners, gaining at Placepot position between them on all seven occasions. Last year’s 8/1 winner was described by yours truly as “the clear pick on this occasion”. Connect (the complete outsider in the field) would have been considered had there been moisture in the turf.
Favourite factor: Six favourites (of one description or another) have prevailed during the study period, whilst 16 of the last 26 market leaders have finished in the frame.
Draw factor (ten furlongs – the most recent result listed first):
1-7-12 (13 ran-soft)
3-4-5 (15 ran-good)
3-5-8 (13 ran-good)
7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
2-5 (7 ran-good to firm)
14-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)
11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)
12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)
5-9-12 (12 ran-good)
6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)
1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)
6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)
8-1-3 (10 ran-good)
5-9-13 (13 ran-good)
6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
3 (3 ran-soft)
8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)
3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
3.40 (Group 1 Lockinge Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whilst the last eight winners carried official marks of 124-136-127-126-125-121-117-122 into the contest (average ratio of 125). I suggested two years ago that the contest represented a drop in class which proved to be the case via the ‘117 winner’ and with this year’s runners offering an average figure of 113, much can be said for this latest renewal. This factor suggests that outsiders should be considered alongside those towards the head of the market, perhaps none more so than a 25/1 chance, namely SUEDOIS, albeit the lack of a recent run tempers enthusiasm to a fashion. As short as 14/1 in two places this morning, 25/1 is available with Betfair and Paddy Power at the time of writing. Horses towards the top of the market that grab my attention include the improving four-year-old raiders ADDEYBB and BEAT THE BANK. This is a Group 1 race in name only. Only if Limato were to win well could we carried away with the performance of the winner, though investors in Henry Candy’s representative know that seeing out the mile trip is taken on trust. That said, connections couldn’t have wished for an easier opportunity, especially on ground that will offer the Tagula gelding every chance of lasting home. From a Placepot perspective however, Harry Bentley’s mount will not offer value for money, that’s for sure.
Favourite factor: The last 20 winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (eleven winning favourites), whilst twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period. Seven of the last eleven market leaders have won (joint favourites were recorded three years ago), as have ten favourites during the last fifteen years.
Draw factor (eight furlongs):
5-4-9 (8 ran-soft)
6-7-2 (12 ran-good)
3-15-6 (16 ran-good)
3-2-5 (8 ran--good to firm)
5-7-6 (12 ran-good to firm)
6-7 (6 ran-good)
4-7 (7 ran-good to firm)
3-1-7 (9 ran-good to firm)
10-6-2 (11 ran-soft)
7-3-10 (11 ran-good)
7-8-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
10-2-3 (9 ran-soft)
5-1-11 (8 ran-firm)
3-8-14 (15 ran-good)
4-6 (6 ran-good)
7-8-4 (10 ran-good to firm)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
1-2 (7 ran-good to firm)
6-4 (6 ran-soft)
8-4-7 (10 ran-good to firm)
Record of the course winner in the 'Lockinge':
1/2—Limato (good to firm)
4.15: Newbury continues to be the flat (turf) track to target in Placepot wagers. When I wrote my first Placepot book back in 1994, Newbury was the top venue in terms of average Placepot dividends on the level and not much has changed. Before I go any further I should report one startling fact from my perspective in that Richard Hannon (the younger) has already saddled well over 400 horses at Newbury, 53% of which were juveniles, stats which have produced 25 relevant gold medallists. Richard has won this event in each of the last two years and has offered the green light to his dual winner ITSTHEONLYWAY on this occasion. Bookmakers are likely to take THE IRISH ROVER on I’ll wager, given that Aiden O’Brien’s January foal ‘slept in the stalls’ at Ascot recently before making up the ground when the race had already been as good as lost. A break on even terms can surely result in a Placepot position today, at the very least.
Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (2/1) favourite from a win perspective.
Draw factor (six furlongs):
4-8 (6 ran-soft)
5-1-6 (8 ran-good)
3-7-4 (8 ran-good)
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Dave Dexter (good to soft)
4.50: John Gosden has claimed two of the last seven renewals of this fascinating Placepot finale and the popular trainer saddles STREAM SONG this time around. It’s worth noting that John was responsible for the beaten (2/1) favourite in the race twelve months ago however, whereby I feel duty bound to include CRYSTAL HOPE and ARCADIAN CAT in the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last thirteen years, whilst eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.