Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £367.20 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
1.15: PREMIER BOND is the first name on my team sheet after cementing a good impression created when runner up to stable companion O O Seven at Sandow before scoring at Newbury. Yes, this does look a tough event but with Nicky Henderson's horses looking as though they are coming back to form after a quiet spell by his high standards, Nico De Boinville's mount the value for money call. Nico has enjoyed a cracking start to 2016 with 14 winners ridden thus far at a 30% strike rate. There are plenty of potential predators despite the company of just five rivals, the pick of which will probably prove to be DUKE DES CHAMPS and MR MIX.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners, albeit the 2012 (4/7) favourite could only secure the silver medal, whilst last year's 4/9 jolly was another Placepot casualty despite finishing second in a 'win only' contest.
Ascot record of course winners in the opening event:
1/2--Duke Des Champs</p>
1.50: Seven-year-olds have won 10 of the last 17 renewals of this ‘Reynoldstown’ event and with three decent representatives in the field, DRUMACOO, ONENIGHTINVIENNA and VYTA DU ROC are listed in order of preference at the overnight stage. I quite understand why ONENIGHTINVIENNA is top rated by the official assessor but in DRUMACOO, the Philip Hobbs raider meets a really progressive type who should not be far away in receipt of four pounds from Tom O'Brien's mount.
Favourite factor: The last 17 winners have produced a top priced winner of 17/2. 10 favourites secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.
Ascot record of course winners in the second race:
2.25: 11 of the 13 toteplacepot positions to date have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum weight of 11-3, statistics which include all five (9/1-7/1-4/1-11/4*-5/4*) winners. The weight trends suggest that SAUSOLITO SUNRISE and VIEUX LION ROUGE should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest. Further rain would bring WALDORF SALAD into the equation.
Favourite factor:Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame to date (exact science).
3.00: Nine of the last 10 winners (including the last eight gold medallists) have carried weights of 11-2 or less and the trio which appeal via 10 qualifiers this time around are named as DEBDEBDEB, FINGERTIPS and PULL THE CHORD. The only horse eliminated by the weight trend is DIFFERENT GRAVEY who sits no less than nine pounds the wrong side of the 'superior barrier'. On the one hand I am intrigued by his entry in the 'JLT' novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival, whilst suggesting that Nicky's six-year-old could be a lively contender for something like the Coral Cup (hurdle) if able to successfully give the weight away here following a 10 month break form the track.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 15 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (11/2**, 11/4 and 9/4) winners.
3.35: MA FILLEULE is a rattling good mare who only found Balder Succes too good for her in this event 12 months ago. This looks to be a tougher race however with more potential winners in the field than was the case 12 months ago. DYNASTE has not delivered the goods since landing the 'Ryanair' at the Cheltenham Festival back in 2014, leaving people with the impression that the sky was the limit for David Pipe's Martaline gelding. Eight subsequent assignments have passed with another success gainer during the period, whereby it's hardly surprising that blinkers are fitted for the first time. Given that this could be considered as his ideal trip, DYNASTE enters my last chance saloon from a win perspective, albeit Placepot chances will be plentiful for some time to come at a very good level of sport. Weather/going conditions will determine the fate of FLEMENSTAR I'll wager with connections of the Irish raider welcoming every drop of rain that falls prior to flag fall. SILVINIACO CONTI would prefer better conditions however. An interesting renewal.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 17 market leaders during the study period claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include 11 successful market leaders. Eight of the last 10 favourites have won with the other gold medallists during the period scoring at 11/2 & 4/1.
Ascot record of course winners in the fifth event:
1/4--Ma Filleule (C&D winner)
4.10: A really tough event to close out our favourite wager with WHAT A MOMENT and NORSE LEGEND making some appeal towards the top of the handicap, whilst respect lower the weights is offered to CAPTAINOFINDUSTRY and HERE'S HERBIE. The jury is out regarding Aigle De La See as I'm not at all sure that Nicky Henderson's talented six-year-old has got over being brought down in a competitive Newbury event at the back end of December.</p>
Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale is a new race on the Ascot card.
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday:
1--Dr Richard Newland
58 declared runners