ASCOT – JANUARY 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: Meeting abandoned
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (Nayati) & 2 (Oistrakh Le Noir)
Leg 2 (1.15): 5 (Red Devil Star), 6 (Uhlan Bute) & 1 (Chef D’Equipe)
Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Le Bag Au Roi), 5 (Midnight Tune) & 2 (Dusky Legend)
Leg 4 (2.25): 11 (Oxwich Bay), 6 (Night Of Sin) & 8 (Jabulani)
Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Acting Lass), 6 (Guitar Pete) & 1 (Tenor Nivernais)
Leg 6 (3.35): 5 (Un De Sceaux) & 1 (Brain Power)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Alan King has won the last two renewals when represented whereby the chance of NAYATI is thoroughly respected. That said, Ben Pauling has a typical (import) type here in OISTRAKH LE NOIR for a set of owners who have enjoyed more than their fair share of success in recent years. Conditions will not pose a problem for either horse from what we have witnessed to date and though I wouldn’t particularly care to choose between the two at the time of writing, both names go into the Placepot mix without hesitation. There is a level of support on the exchanges for Gary Moore’s newcomer Et Moir Alors, though Gary’s Kap Rock gelding would do amazingly well to give the first mentioned pair experience and a beating, even in receipt of six pounds from the relevant rivals.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine renewals have been won by market leaders whilst two horses returned at 100/30 prevailed in the first two contests.
1.15: Philip Hobbs has been enduring a poor run of form by his high standards since Christmas, despite landing a treble at Sandown/Wincanton a fortnight ago. Just one of his subsequent 13 horses have won and the fact that an average of less than one runner a day during the period tells you all you need to know. That said, CHEF D’EQUIPE has Placepot credentials for all to see, albeit the likes of (good to soft) course winner RED DEVIL STAR and (to a fashion) UHLAN BUTE are preferred from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite was one of two runners that failed to complete the course. Horses filled the Placepot frame at odds of 14/1, 5/1 and 16/1 two years ago in the relevant contest.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/4—Red Devil Star (good to soft)
1.50: Two in form trainers clash here and no mistake, naming Anthony Honeyball (MIDNIGHT TUNE) and Warren Greatrex (LE BAG AU ROI) as the handlers who have rarely had their horses in better form down the years, a statement which certainly applies to Anthony (four of his last six runners have won) for sure. DUSKY LEGEND completes my trio against the remaining three contenders in this Grade 2 contest which is confined to mares.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective to date, statistics which include three winners.
Record of the course winner in the third event:
1/1—Graceful Legend (good to soft)
2.25: Five-year-olds came to the gig on a four-timer in the most recent renewal, with representatives claiming silver and bronze medals when both returned at 10/1. Vintage representatives are 6/1 to get back to winning ways here before the form book is consulted, with both JABULANI and NIGHT OF SIN boasting each way claims from my viewpoint. Whether either horse can keep tabs on six-year-old OXWICH BAY at the business end of proceedings remains to be seen. Out of interest, six-year-olds have won the other three contests during the last seven years, stats which also bring Crossed My Mind and Jenkins into the equation.
Favourite factor: Just two of the twelve favourites have obliged to date, whilst only three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:
1/3—Air Horse One (soft)
3.00: There is evidence of overnight support at a double figure price for TENOR NIVERNAIS which comes as no surprise given the (soft) conditions and any further rain can only enhance his chance. The weight stats are against the Venetia Williams raider however, the last horse having carried 11-12 to victory back in 2008. I still fancy his chance from a Placepot perspective however, whilst those on Aidan Coleman’s mount at fancy prices will certainly get a decent run for their win and place investments from my viewpoint. Six of the last seven winners have carried 11-3 or less, a factor which points yours truly in the direction of ACTING LASS and GUITAR PETE as potential winners of the contest. The latter named Nicky Richards northern raider represents the yard which won both of the 2011/12 renewals with Tatenen.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites during the last decade have claimed Placepot positions, though winning favourites during the period were only conspicuous by their absence. Indeed, three of the last five winners were returned at 25/1, 22/1 and 12/1.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:
2/4—Tenor Nivernais (2 x soft)
1/2—Minella Daddy (good to soft)
1/4—Fortunate George (good to soft)
3.35: Paul Nicholls (SAN BENEDETO) has saddled four of the last nine winners of this Grade 1 event (three of which were returned as favourites), though Willie Mullins has ‘interrupted the trainer trend’ these last two years having won with UN DE SCEAUX on both occasions. Paul suggested a while ago that he was scaling back on his number of runners this season and so it has proved in recent weeks, continuing today with just the one declaration on the Ascot card who is something of a no-hoper according to media types. At 25/1 (thereabouts), SAN BENEDETO could provide forecast fodder from my viewpoint, especially if BRAIN POWER fails to complete the course again. Otherwise, UN DE SCEAUX should have too many guns close home for Nicky Henderson’s talented seven-year-old, especially at level weights.
Favourite factor: 15 of the 17 winners since the turn of the Millennium have been returned at 5/1 or less, stats which include nine successful favourites.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Brain Power (good to soft)
1/3—San Benedeto (good)
1/1—Un De Sceaux (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
6 runners—Nicky Henderson (5/22 – loss of 11 points) – 38/182 – loss of 45
5—Harry Fry (1/11 – loss of 7) – 13/53 – marginal profit
3—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 7/69 +7
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/7 – loss of 2) – 4/55 – loss of 24
3—Venetia Williams (0/6) – 14/93 +31
2—Kim Bailey (0/3) – 4/35 – loss of 3
2—Alan King (1/11 – loss of 4) – 12/90 +12
2—Ben Pauling (2/7 +3) -0 3/21 – loss of 2
2—Lucinda Russell (First runenrs at Ascot this season) – 1/4 +2
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £243.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Taunton: £116.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £70.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Chelmsford: This is a new meeting