NEWBURY – APRIL 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £24.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 30.7% units went through – 9/2 – 9/2 – 12/1 (3/1)
Race 2: 58.8% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 25/1 – 8/1
Race 3: 69.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 9/4* - 8/1
Race 4: 29.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 16/1 – 10/1 – 10/1 (7/2)
Race 5: 87.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* - 5/2 – 4/1
Race 6: 92.8% of the units secured the dividend – 100/1 – 5/2 – 6/5*
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.25): 10 (Humbolt Current) & 11 (Mapped)
Leg 2 (2.00): 3 (Cool To Mind) & 4 (Defoe)
Leg 3 (2.35): 11 (Tajaanus), 9 (Natural) & 1 (All Out)
Leg 4 (3.10): 4 (Expert Eye) & 6 (Hey Gaman)
Leg 5 (3.45): 22 (Gilgamesh), 19 (Graphite Storm), 20 (Keyser Soze) & 21 (Mazyoun)
Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (He’s Amazing), 11 (Jack Crow) & 15 (Ta Allak)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
*Please note that as part of this card was transferred to Chelmsford two years ago with Newbury having been abandoned, I have completely ignored those results. The draw would obviously not have been valid and the whole context of the meeting was ‘lost’ from my viewpoint (divided thoughts of trainers/changes in declarations etc), whereby I have decided that my stats are classed as ‘turf only stats’. I hope you are in agreement with this decision though that said, the judge’s decision is final!
**Further notice relates to the weather in this part of the world (Bristol), especially given the overnight “good to soft” quote for Newbury. Thunderstorms have been forecast to break out in certain areas at any time of the day, whereby you should keep an eye out on the weather front to see how much (if any) rain has fallen at Newbury. This is especially of interest, given that nearly all the course winners (listed after each race) require some cut in the ground. If the ground dries up as much as it has done these last few days, connections might withdraw their runners and we know what an effect on the Placepot that scenario can have! I will update weather in Bristol on my Twitter page leading up to flag fall in the opening event at 1.25.
1.25: Only MAPPED is standing up in any shape or form against the favourite HUMBOLT CURRENT with this pair fully expected to pull clear of the remainder with half a furlong or more to run, the pick of which (at a distance) might prove to be Coolongolook.
Favourite factor: Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.
2.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last ten years (first and third five years ago). COOL TO MIND was a winner on this corresponding card twelve months ago and the William Haggas raider might not be quite as ‘ground dependent’ as DEFOE who would appreciate showers in the lead up to the contest. If the four-year-old trend is to be stopped in its tracks, DANEHILL KODIAC could prove to be the joker in the pack, especially following overnight support.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.
Record of the course winners in the 'John Porter':
1/1—Call To Mind (good to firm)
2/2—Defoe (2 x soft)
3/10—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft & soft)
2.35: Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ five years ago in a career which spanned over forty years. Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998. Richard 'junior’ saddled the ‘Chelmsford winner’ recently and his three runners offer the chance of the Hannon tradition gaining momentum. NATURAL would not appreciate more cut (connections hoping that any rain in the area fails to materialise), though stable companion ALL OUT would probably benefit for a shower or two. Richard’s short priced raider TAJAANUS would probably like the ground just as it is at the time of writing given his 3/5 ratio under such conditions. Whatever the weather then, Richard should secure Placepot positions, with at least one of his representatives reaching the frame. Givota and course winner Hikmaa are others to consider.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include six winners.
Record of the course winners in the 'Fred Darling':
3.05: Having won five of the last nine and six of the last 15 renewals on turf, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card, though a Hannon representative is only visible by its absence on this occasion unfortunately. Whether the team spied the likes of EXPERT EYE and HEY GAMAN waiting in the wings is an unknown factor of course though either way, there is no disputing the fact that this pair possess leading claims this time around. Connect and Raid offer speculative investors a chance of going close at inflated odds from my viewpoint, though this original ‘dead eight’ event has been thwarted by an early withdrawal.
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 19 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.
Record of the course winners in the 'Greenham':
1/1—Expert Eye (good)
1/1—Hey Gaman (soft)
1/1—James Garfield (good)
3.40: Four and five-year-olds have won 18 of the last 19 renewals on turf between them, whilst the relevant vintage representatives have secured 59 of the last 71 available Placepot positions in the process. Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 13 contests during the last 19 years whilst claiming 40 Placepot positions. The pick of the five vintage representatives this time around are GILGAMESH (Drawn 17/24), GRAPHITE STORM (9), KEYSER SOZE (1) and MAZYOUN (7) according to my slide rule, given that six of the eight four-year-old winners during the last thirteen years had carried a maximum weight of 8-12. Favourite backers are still enduring nightmares about the well backed 7/2 market leader (Chelsea Lad) which was pulled up before the race had barely begun twelve months ago. The favourite carried 28.4% of the live Placepot units into the contest adding salt into a very deep wound.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via 18 renewals during the last 19 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 14 of the last 18 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.
Draw factor' (eight furlongs) - recent results listed first:
12-8-4-7 (21 ran-good to firm)
5-14-6-7 (22 ran-good to firm)
11-25-3-6 (23 ran-good)
21-9-1-7 (25 ran-good to soft)
7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)
10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)
12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)
20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)
11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)
11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)
13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)
22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)
26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)
14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)
20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)
6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)
14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)
Record of the course winner in the Spring Cup:
1/3—Graphite Storm (good to soft)
4.20: This looks to be a far more open event that was the case in the first heat which opened the Newbury programme. So much so in fact that three runners are required to try and ensure that we secure the dividend if we were live going into the Placepot finale. My trio against the remaining twelve contenders consists of HE’S AMAZING, JACK CROW and Roger Varian’s newcomer TA ALLAK.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card, whereby the same stat apply. Only three market leaders have scored during the last eleven years, though nine of the last ten jollies have claimed Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.30:
1/1—Rake’s Progress (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.