NEWBURY - JULY 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £268.30 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Remarkable), 9 (Executive Force) & 4 (Straight Right)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Arthenus), 7 (What About Carlo) & 8 (Best Of Days)
Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Lady Macapa), 1 (Gifted Master), 6 (Raucous) & 12 (Visionary)
Leg 4 (3.35): 11 (Corinthia Knight), 2 (Zalshah) & 18 (One For June)
Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Ghayadh) & 2 (Alkhalifa)
Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Sante) & 5 (Pavillion)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: First things first, by informing that plenty of rain is forecast for this area from 11.00 right through until the end of racing, with plenty of the wet stuff having been witnessed here in the west country during the second half of the day on Friday. EXECUTIVE FORCE makes some sort of each way appeal at around the 12/1 mark given that William Haggas is still churning out regular winners (11/1 gold medallist yesterday), whilst conditions should not detract from his chance. More logical winners via the form might (arguably) include REMARKABLE and STRAIGHT RIGHT.
Favourite factor: Both favourites to date finished nearer last than first when missing out on Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/2—Executive Force (soft)
2.25: At around 8/1 and a proven winner in this (Listed) class, ARTHENUS is the first name on the team sheet, especially from a value for money perspective. James Fanshawe rarely spends too long between saddling winners and Tom Queally’s mount is expected to reach the frame at the very least on the type of going which he has won on before. WHAT ABOUT CARLO can run another solid race; given that Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider has adapted to today’s potential conditions well during his career, whilst the chance for BEST OF DAYS is there for all to see, though how Hugo Palmer’s raider would handle really soft ground is an unknown factor.
Favourite factor: Although two of the last four favourites have won (10/11 & 9/4), they are the only market leaders to have prevailed during the last decade, with four of nine winners having been returned in double figures, ranging between 10/1 & 28/1. That said, five of the last nine favourites have finished in the frame.
Record of course winners in the second race on the card:
1/4—Spark Plug (good)
2/7—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft)
3.00: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals of this (Group 3) Hackwood Stakes, yet only three vintage representatives have been offered chances on this occasion. All three horses are offered as win and place options this time around, including the 28/1 quoted LADY MACAPA who is fully expected to outrun her price. GIFTED MASTER might be written by some following a lengthy break but Hugo Palmer’s raider has defied similar scenarios in the past, whilst RAUCOUS finished third in this event twelve months ago. Three-year-olds do not have a good recent record in the contest, though that did not stop vintage raiders securing 14/20 renewals of the race from a period starting back in 1986. VISIONARY is discounted by some firms at 20/1 this morning which as a soft ground winner looks a tad too big from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 18 years with 12 market leaders having claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the third contest:
1/4—Windfast (good to firm)
3.35: ‘Team Hannon’ have claimed five gold and four silver medals via the last 13 contests in this ‘Super Sprint‘, whilst also saddling a quartet of fourth placed horses for good measure. Richard saddles ‘only’ three massive outsiders today, the pick of which should prove to be ZALSHAH with Ryan Moore booked to ride. It’s as though Richard is offering other trainers a chance this year or is it that he has spied a probable winner of a race which is invariably tough to call? That horse would have been (still is to a fashion) CORINTHIA KNIGHT from my perspective had better ground conditions been in place, though the form of trainer Archie Watson still convinces me that his Society Rock colt is the horse to beat. Archie has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect (Corinthia Knight is his only runner today – one at Redcar on Sunday), whilst the other inmate was beaten ‘three parts’ at 20/1! ONE FOR JUNE completes my only three horses against the field which makes me the bravest boy in Bristol this morning! One For June was winning over six furlongs the last day and whilst some folk might suggest that the drop back in trip is a negative factor, the good to soft winner might be staying on when others have cried enough on this ground late doors.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourite have scored via the last 17 contests. Ten of the 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period. Four of the last seven favourites have won which is a really positive return in such a competitive event, with the 2013 market leader having been beaten by just a neck.
4.10: The top two runners in the list should take plenty of kicking out of the frame, even though I would not play the race aside from our favourite (Placepot) wager. Both horses (GHAYADH and ALKHALIFA) will encounter opposite conditions to what they faced at the first time of asking but that said, the experience of those assignments will hold them in good stead today. HELVETIAN has a Group 1 (Pheonix Stakes) entry and Mick Channon does not hand out potential assignments of that order to his unraced juveniles too often.
Favourite factor: Given its novice status, this is a new race ion the Newbury card.
4.45: SANTE was only beaten half a length on soft ground in a Doncaster event earlier this season which bodes well for her chance under today’s conditions which will only get slower as each race evolves. That said, PAVILLION is the horse for money as dawn breaks, though 7/1 is still available in a few places which could offer some value for money in the Placepot finale. LINCOLN ROCKS was only put up a couple of pounds for a recent success, though the relevant 32 ounces might feel more like a stone in the eighth furlong of this mile event.
Favourite factor: Only one (6/5) favourite has prevailed during the last nine renewals during which time, four market leaders finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday:
9 runners—Richard Hannon
2—Eve Johnson Houghton
2—Sir Michael Stoute
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
82 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £372.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Newmarket: £39.40 – 7 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Lingfield: £24.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Ripon: £11.10 – 7 favourites – four winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Cartmel: £118.10 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed- 3 unplaced
Market Rasen: £83.70 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced