ASCOT - DECEMBER 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £144.50 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (12.40): 7 (Christmas In April), 9 (Comely) & 13 (One Of Us)
Leg 2 (1.15): 3 (Adrien Du Pont) & 1 (Coney Island)
Leg 3 (1.50): 11 (Red Devil Star), 4 (Poker School), 3 (Pougne Bobbi) & 7 (Theo’s Charm)
Leg 4 (2.25): 9 (Unowwhatimeanharry) & 6 (The Worlds End)
Leg 5 (3.00): 13 (Fortunate George), 11 (Walk In The Mill), 14 (Icing On The Cake) & 9 (On Tour)
Leg 6 (3.35): 7 (Verdana Blue), 5 (Charli Parcs) & 10 (Caid Du Lin)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Just the seven renewals to date though that said, five-year-olds have won six of the seven events (12/1-7/1-6/1-6/1-9/2-3/1*) whilst securing the forecast positions on two occasions (9/2 & 8/1--6/1 & 14/1) and the first and third horses home (3/1 & 16/1) five years ago. The pick of this year's three vintage representatives could prove to be COMELY, CHRISTMAS IN APRIL (who must be one one very confused horse) and ONE OF US. The latter named raider is saddled by Nick Williams who has enjoyed this day at Ascot many times via Reve De Sivola (see trainers stats below), whilst the first named Nicky Henderson pair have chances on the form book for all to see. Ned Curtis rides CHRISTMAS IN APRIL and the jockey will be champing at the bit to ride a winner having been aboard a favourite (Casablanca Mix) who was in cruise control at the last obstacle at Exeter the other day (seven lengths clear) when tumbling over. Forgetthesmalltalk is nominated as the alternative option but not all of Alan King’s runners are going well at present, a stat which is highlighted by the fact only one of Alan’s last five favourites has prevailed.
Favourite factor: Three of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via one gold and two silver medals.
1.15: Five-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals and always one for keeping tabs on this type of information, Paul Nicholls saddles his good to soft course winner ADRIEN DU PONT with a live chance this afternoon. Yes, Paul’s Fontwell winner is upped in class again on only his third start over the bigger obstacles, but the trainer knows more about the game than I ever will and if it’s good enough for Paul who would have held any number of options for the contest, then it is good enough for me. I’ve grown tired (at last) of giving MORE THAN THAT another chance though to put the record straight (when other media commentators just spout out words with using facts to back them up), outsiders of three since the end of October have won three of the eighteen races they have contested, stats which show only a fractional loss to level stakes, the winners having scored at 8/1, 4/1 & 9/4. A certain ‘betting ring’ conveyor of opinions needs to add facts to statements, rather than just spouting out words that can offer punters a ‘bum steer’. That leaves us with the projected favourite (market leaders have a good record as you can see below) who rightly heads the betting, as CONEY ISLAND has less questions to answer than his two rivals in terms of experience/current form/conditions of the contest.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five (10/11—4/5--5/4**--6/5--Evens) winners.
Record of the course winners in the second event:
1/1—Adrien Du Pont (good to soft)
1.50: There will be worse outsiders on the Ascot card today than course winner RED DEVIL STAR from my viewpoint, especially with Suzy Smith having lowered the colours of leading trainers on many occasions down the years. Last year’s winner POKER SCHOOL will encounter similar conditions today and with a decent five pound claimer in the plate, Ian’s Gold Well representative is effectively four pounds better in twelve months on. Others to consider in a competitive event include POUGNE BOBBI and THEO’S CHARM.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourite has secured a Placepot position thus far without winning the relevant contest.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/1—Poker School (good to soft)
1/3—Red Devil Star (good to soft)
2.25: For all that plenty of horses deserve their respective places in the line up, last year’s winner UNOWHATIMEANHARRY will take plenty of kicking out of the frame here having scored under the same (good to soft conditions) as when successful twelve months ago. Having won four of his seven races over timber to date, THE WORLDS END is offered as the alternative each way option for those of you that want to take on the favourite who is 15/8 in most books at the time of writing. On the other hand, 10/1 is a fair price about Tom George’s Stowaway gelding given his Grade 1 victory at Aintree nine months ago. When the trainer ‘tilts at the windmill’ on the odd occasion, Tom’s runners are not usually too far away when the taps are turned on close home.
Favourite factor: Favourites have secured nine of the last 14 contests, whilst 13 of the 15 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
2/5—Lil Rockerfella (2 x good to soft)
1/2—Thomas Campbell (good to soft)
1/1—Unowhatimeanharry (good to soft)
3.00: Nine of the last 11 winners have carried 11-1 or less with FORTUNATE GEORGE (Emma Lavelle knows how to win these big handicaps), WALK IN THE MILL (trainer Robert Walford has won with three of his last seven runners) and ON TOUR (running off the same attractive mark as when falling at Newbury last time out) all holding realistic claims at each way prices today. The ground might have dried out to much for Yala Enki, whereby the phones could be busy this morning in the Betfair and Paddy Power office with punters attempting to take each way advantage of the relevant 40/1 quotes about ICING ON THE CAKE.
Favourite factor: All manner of results have ensued in recent years but from a toteplacepot perspective, five of the last seven favourites have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/5—Ptit Zig (soft)
1/4—Go Conquer (good)
1/3—Regal Encore (good to soft)
1/1—Yala Enki (soft)
1/1—Walk In The Mill (good to soft)
1/3—Fortunate Gorge (good to soft)
3.35: Five-year-olds have secured seven of the 13 renewals of ‘The Ladbroke‘ (albeit the race now carried another title) and last year’s relevant 12/1 winner Brain Power was the first horse mentioned in despatches twelve months ago. That ‘honour’ is awarded to VERDANA BLUE from the same Nicky Henderson stable. Form lines relating to ELGIN have worked out well, whilst the speculative call in the contest is classed as CAID LU LIN whose seven pound claimer allows Dr Richard Newland’s 20/1 chance into the Placepot equation. It’s a tough call to potentially leave Elgin out of the mix but with Alan King’s runners still running a little hot and cold, CHARLI PARCS is preferred having run an absolute stormer in Newbury’s ‘Gerry Feilden’ event last month. All that remains for me is to wish you a wonderful Christmas though for a heads up relating to Kempton's Boxing Day card, I will be back with you tomorrow (Sunday)!
Favourite factor: Six of the last 18 favourites have finished in the frame, though only one (7/1) joint favourite has prevailed in the last eight years from a win perspective.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Air Horse One (soft)
1/2—Verdana Blue (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers who have saddled two or more winners at this corresponding (Saturday) during the last five years - who have runners at Ascot today:
5 winners—Paul Nicholls – 4 runners today
3 winners—Nick Williams – 2 runners today
2 winners—Nicky Henderson – 9 runners today
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £87.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Newcastle (NH): £9,267.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £10.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced