ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23
Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:
2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)
2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44
45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1
Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)
Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)
Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*
Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)
Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)
Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)
Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)
Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)
Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)
Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday. Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today. The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event. The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.
3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth. Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate. Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.
'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:
5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced
Starting price stats in the last 14 years:
3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced
Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced
8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced
4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today. We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see. I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa. Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.
5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘. Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame. Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE. Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.
5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract! The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner. Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager. It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.