NEWBURY – SEPTEMBER 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £110.70 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.15): 14 (Reshaan), 7 (Cuban Heel) & 5 (Carp Kid)
Leg 2 (1.45): 6 (Emaraaty), 1 (Ateem) & 10 (Magnificent)
Leg 3 (2.15): 8 (Second Step) & 4 (Desert Encounter)
Leg 4 (2.50): 5 (James Garfield), 1 (Enjazaat) & 2 (Grand Koota)
Leg 5 (3.25): 2 (Banksea), 12 (Silver Ghost) & 14 (Al Neksh)
Leg 6 (4.00): 5 (Cotai Glory), 2 (Muthmir) & 14 (Hot The Bid)
Potential perm: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: We start the day in much the same way as Friday, by informing that Richard Hannon has won two of the last three renewals of this event and I’m hoping for a similar result to Friday when Richard opened proceedings with a 20/1 winner (Orange Suit) for us! Richard introduces his March foal CARP KID alongside RESHAAN who finished fourth on debut at Kempton earlier this month. CUBAN HEEL represents Clive Cox who has been enjoying a fantastic run of form of late and his Havana Gold colt can reach the frame again in this class/company, given his fine form at Ascot on his penultimate start.
Favourite factor: Although three favourites have won via the last ten renewals of this event, two 50/1 chances were cheered home by the vast majority of bookmakers during the study period.
1.45: ATEEM and MAGNIFICENT both represent Richard Hannon in this second division of the opening race and after three assignments apiece, they should be cherry ripe now to produce their best form to date. I do not back juveniles to win races who have failed to snare gold after three efforts though that said, both horses will feature in the my Placepot permutation alongside EMARAATY. Ignore the 6/4 quote in the trade press relating to John Gosden’s raider who is touted around the 4/7 mark at the time of writing. That is far too short on the face of one half decent Sandown effort thus far, though there is no denying that his Placepot chance is there for all to see.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the Newbury card, whereby the same stats apply. Although three favourites have won via the last ten renewals of this event, two 50/1 chances were cheered home by the vast majority of bookmakers during the study period.
2.15: This Group 3 contest was formerly known as the ‘Arc Trial’ on the corresponding day down the years but even though we have a competitive event to witness today, this year’s representatives would (respectfully) have to start now if they were going to reach the frame (let alone win) the ‘Arc’ this time around! I have no interest from a win perspective, though DESERT ENCOUNTER and SECOND STEP look good enough to guarantee (dangerous phrasing) a decent run from a Placepot perspective in a below par renewal. The relevant trainers (David Simcock and Roger Charlton respectively) have won three of the last nine renewals between which bodes well for their runners finishing in the frame at the very least. Out of interest, I am duty bound to report bits and pieced of support at 50/1 about Andrew Balding’s local runner Wingingit at the time of writing, perhaps confirming that others also believe this race in there to be won by any of the eleven declarations.
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won this event during the last decade, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 15/2.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
2/3—Scarlet Dragon (good to firm & good to soft)
2/3—Second Step (good & good to soft)
3/8—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft & good to firm)
2.50: GRAND KOONTA will outrun his 16/1 price I’ll wager, though whether that will be good enough to beat the likes of JAMES GARFIELD and ENJAZAAT is open to doubt I guess. All three horses still have scope for improvement I’ll wager, possibly more so than the well fancied Invincible Army who is well exposed now following six races already this term. With only one less assignment under his belt, JAMES GARFIELD has also been kept up to his work by trainer George Scott but the booking of Frankie Dettori catches the eye in no uncertain terms. Frankie was aboard the Exceed And Excel colt for the first time in the ‘Acomb’ the last day and the drop back in trip in this class/company could bring about a return to winning form.
Favourite factor: Market leaders come to the gig on a hat trick, favourites of one description or another having secured five of the last six renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 4/1.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
3.25: BANKSEA represents Luca Cumani who has saddled three winners of this event in the last ten years. Six of Luca’s last eight runners have finished in the frame (stats include two winners) and there is every chance that the good (each way) run will continue this afternoon. Aside from winning with a 25/1 chance at the track yesterday, it should be noted that Eve Johnson Houghton also saddled two silver medallists (at 16/1 & 14/1) via just four runners whereby the chance of SILVER GHOST is respected. For good measure, it’s worth noting that Eve won this event two years ago with What About Carlo who was also representing the yard as a four-year-old. AL NEKSH completes my trio against the remaining 17 contenders, the pick of which is arguably Anythingtoday. Out of interest, five of the last six winners have emerged via a single figure draw, stats which support the chances of Banksea (5) and Al Neksh (6), whilst Silver Ghost is not exactly drawn out of contention in stall twelve.
Favourite factor: Three joint favourites have won this event during the last decade which given the competitive nature of the contest, is not a bad record at all. Indeed, the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 14/1. Media types quote strange words about “outsiders” these days, with one famous broadcaster announcing that an 8/1 chance was an outsider the other day! The top priced winner quoted above was one of 20 contenders on the day (the same as this year) and unless a horse wins at 22/1 or more this afternoon, I would not call the relevant winner an outsider, even if the gold medallist scored at 16/1. Only when a horse is returned at a price bigger than the ‘number of runners’ can it be classed as a true outsider in my book, irrespective of what form lines the thoroughbred might/might not boast before a race.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/1—Snoano (good to soft)
1/1—Banksea (good to firm)
1/1—Baydar (good to soft)
1/2—First Flight (good)
4.00: Defending champion COTAI GLORY returns to the scene of his victory and his win and place chance is there for all to see, albeit in a more competitive event this time around. Connections might have most to fear from MUTHMIR and the Irish raider HIT THE BID on this occasion. COTAI GLORY has not won (via eight assignments) since lifting the prize twelve months back but that said, the Charlie Hills raider comes into the race off exactly the same weight and official mark whereby his 11/2 quote at the time of writing looks about right from my viewpoint. It’s also worth digesting the fact that two of his five victories to date have been posted during the month of September.
Favourite factor: Five of the last seven renewals have been secured by favourites, the biggest priced winner during the period having been returned at 9/2.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Cotai Glory (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by the number of winners they have saddled on the corresponding day during the last five years (where applicable):
8 runners—Richard Hannon (3 winners)
8---Clive Cox (4)
6—Andrew Balding (1)
6—Eve Johnson Houghton (2)
4—John Gosden (1)
4—Charlie Hills (1)
4—Sir Michael Stoute (2)
3—Roger Charlton (1)
2—Mick Channon (1)
2—Hugo Palmer (2)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor
+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
115 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £1,148.00 (abandoned this year unfortunately)