KEMPTON – FEBRUARY 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £207.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (1.15): 6 (Master Dancer), 8 (Criq Rock) & 10 (Awesome Rosie)
Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (The Unit) & 1 (Cyrname)
Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Redicean) & 1 (Beau Gosse)
Leg 4 (3.00): 5 (Michael’s Mount), 3 (Global Citizen) & 9 (Shoal Bay)
Leg 5 (3.35): 4 (Art Mauresque), 6 (As De Mee), 10 (Loose Chips) & 1 (Theatre Guide)
Leg 6 (4.10): 2 (Kayf Blanco) & 1 (I’dliketheoption)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: Seven of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-2 or more which eliminates the bottom five horses in the handicap if you take the stats seriously. Seven-year-olds have won four of the last ten renewals and narrowing the field, my ‘short list’ consists of MASTER DANCER, CRIQ ROCK and AWESOME ROSIE, even though the latter named raider hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Just two favourites have obliged during the last 18 years with 11 of the 23 market leaders having secured Placepot positions during the study period. Seven recent winners scored at 33/1-22/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-10/1.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
2/3—Our Kaempfer (good & good to soft)
1.50: Paul Nicholls has saddled nine of the last twelve winners of the ‘Pendil’ whereby CYRMANE comes straight into contention, though the declaration of THE UNIT adds some spice in what would otherwise should have been a ‘gimme’ for the favourite. THE UNIT is also entered up at Fontwell tomorrow but the lure of this prize could gain the day as I have a feeling there will not be a great deal of daylight between the pair at the jamstick.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in recent times, statistics which include eleven winners.
Record of the course winner in the ‘Pendil’:
1.50: Some of the previous winners of this ‘Adonis’ event have gone all the way to the top of their respective sectors down the years, including Well Chief, Snow Drop and Punjabi, notwithstanding the likes of Binocular, Bilboa and Penzance. Paul Nicholls has trained four gold medallists via his last eleven representatives though his two inmates are likely to give best to REDICEAN and BEAU GOSSE on this occasion. The first named Alan King raider receives a couple of pounds from the French representative and as REDICEAN is unbeaten after two starts at this track (which appears to suit his style of running), I’m hoping the prize will stay at home.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won this event during the last 19 years whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 9/1. 13 of the 19 market leaders finished in the money in this Triumph Hurdle trial.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Adonis’:
3.00: GLOBAL CITIZEN and SHOAL BAY are two interesting each way types to take into consideration in a race which might bustle up the potential Placepot dividend from my viewpoint. I cannot visualise too many shocks in the first three races on the card but this contest could be responsible of tens of thousands of units going up in smoke, especially with Alan King (Scarlet Dragon) and Nicky Henderson (Humphrey Bogart)) having declared two newcomers into the race. I’m swerving all the leading fancies however by adding MICHAEL’S MOUNT into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won via the last seventeen renewals of this Grade 2 ‘Dovecoat’ contest, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame. 13 winners have scored at odds of 6/1 or less during the study period.
3.35: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last eleven contests, having snared seven of the last nineteen renewals of this Grade 3 event, whilst 11 of the last 15 winners have carried 10-12 or more. The Paul Nicholls pair ART MAURESQUE and AS DE MEE possess ticks in both of the trend boxes which makes for interesting reading. My trio against the remaining ten contenders is completed by LOOSE CHIPS (great record at the track – see stats below) with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to Theatre Guide.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last nineteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
2/6—Theatre Guide (good to soft & soft)
2/6—Josses Hill (good & soft)
2/3—Art Mauresque (2 x good)
1/5—Vibrato Valtat (soft)
4/8—Loose Chips (2 x soft – good – heavy)
1/1—Tintern Theatre (soft)
4.10: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals yet that edge (if you believe in trends) ‘bypassed’ trainers a couple of years ago. Eight of the last ten winners carried a minimum weight of 11-8 and putting the stats and facts together, I’m gambling on I’DLIKETHEOPTION and KAYF BLANCO to land the Placepot dividend between them if we are ‘live’ going into the contest. The latter named raider is saddled by Graeme McPherson who has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect, Graeme’s other relevant inmate having been beaten as a 50/1 chance.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last 17 renewals of this event were secured by market leaders. The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 7/1. The last twelve favourites have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Kayf Blanco (soft)
1/2—Valseur Du Granval (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by ratios at the track this season + their five year figures profits/losses accrued on both counts:
8 runners—Alan King (3/27 – loss of 20) – 25/116 – loss of 65
8—Paul Nicholls (10/26 – loss of 4) – 37/165 – loss of 15
6—Nicky Henderson (12/38 – slight loss) – 64/224 – loss of 6
5—Colin Tizzard (1/13 – loss of 2) – 11/71 +12
3—Philip Hobbs (0/6) – 9/91 – loss of 58
3—Charlie Longsdon (0/8) – 7/58 – loss of 6
3—Jonjo O’Neill (1/12 – loss of 8) – 12/116 – loss of 32
3—Dan Skelton (0/22) – 8/106 – loss of 79
3—Ian Williams (1/5 – loss of 2) – 6/26 +8
2—Graeme McPherson (First runners at Kempton this season) – 2/13 +10
2—Fergal O’Brien (0/1) – 0/14
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/11 - slight profit) – 12/65 – loss of 19
2—Tim Vaughan (First runners at Kempton this season) – 3/41 – loss of 19
+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
67 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £107.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle: £657.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Lingfield: £1,218.00 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £36.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced