Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 24th March

DONCASTER – MARCH 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,231.20 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 16.6% units went through – 7/1, 11/1 & 33/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 19.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/1, 12/1, 25/1 & 20/1 (9/2)

Race 3: 41.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1, 10/3 & 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 20/1, 7/2*, 7/1 & 16/1

Race 5: 26.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 13/2 & 50/1 (2/1)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1, 9/2 & 14/1 (11/4)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Mjjack), 6 (Mr Lupton) & 4 (Lancelot Du Lac)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Kynren), 8 (What’s The Story) & 14 (Titus)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Another Touch) & 6 (Zabeel Prince)

Leg 4 (3.35): 17 (Fire Brigade), 14 (Addeybb), 13 (Grey Britain) & 10 (Not So Sleepy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 9 (Langholm), 10 (Lihou) & 4 (Carey Street)

Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Proschema) & 2 (Argentello)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Scroll down for Doncaster stats and Newbury Placepot information

 

1.50: The last twelve winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst only two favourites have prevailed via the last 14 contests.  Unfortunately, only the bottom weight is eliminated from my enquiries via the relevant weight stats this time around though in MJJACK, we have a half decent chance of securing a Placepot position at the very least in the opening race of the season.  There is money this morning for Karl Burke’s raider who looks an interesting each way bet for starters on a busy day.  Others of interest include course winner MR LUPTON and LANCELOT DU LAC who doesn’t mind some juice in the ground, though the general 3/1 quote would frighten yours truly away from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst nine of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

4-12-1 (13 ran-good to soft)

14-12-2 (13 ran-soft)

10-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-soft)

9-1-4 (8 ran-soft)

11-10-12 (14 ran-good)

5-7-14 (14 ran-good)

14-10-13 (13 ran-soft)

6-2-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

16-9-17 (15 ran-good to soft)

2-7-10 (11 ran-good)

16-17-12 (17 ran--good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Mjjack (heavy)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good)

1/4—Perfect Pasture (good to soft)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won 16 renewals during the last 20 years (including 13 of the last 16), whilst the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Eleven vintage representatives have been declared compared to just six twelve months ago which makes this renewal a little tougher to assess.  I have opted for KYNREN, WHAT’S THE STORY and TITUS.  The reserve nomination is awarded to ORIGINAL CHOICE.

Favourite factor: The last 16 favourites that failed to win their respective events also missed out on Placepot positions.  Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored during the last 14 years.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

6-3-1-9 (21 ran-good to soft)

4-19-20-18 (21 ran-soft)

8-1-18-21 (21 ran-good)

15-16-14-18 (22 ran-soft)

16-8-20-13 (18 ran-soft)

2-7-8-12 (22 ran-good)

16-19-22-10 (22-good)

19-10-12-18 (19 ran-soft)

9-11-2-20 (21 ran-good to soft)

17-1-2-21 (21 ran-good to soft)

12-8-7-20 (22 ran-good)

19-20-21-15 (24-good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the second race:

1/4—Lord Of The Rock (soft)

1/1—What’s The Stoory (soft)

 

3.00: ANOTHER TOUCH is the each way call in the contest, albeit ZABEEL PRINCE should take the beating on this ground which has produced some of his best form.  Richard Hannon secured a treble on the corresponding card last year and TABARRAK appears to be his best chance of a winner today.  That said, ground conditions are a worry and in ANOTHER TOUCH, we have a young horse which offers decent value for money at 11/1 (in places) this morning.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this Doncaster Mile event have changed around in recent years whereby the official stance now is that there are just five renewals to take into consideration with three of the six market leaders having secured Placepot positions (two winners).

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have claimed 23 of the last 60 available Placepot positions, statistics which include eight of the last fifteen winners, whilst the last 13 winners have carried 9-4 or less.  Putting all those stats and facts in the deep fat fryer produces a short list of FIERE BRIGADE, ADDEYBB, GREY BRITAIN and NOT SO SLEEPY.  I had to include the latter named raider who is a 66/1 chance in some books this morning which appears to be a more than generous quote given his 2/4 record on the prevailing ground. That said as a winner (similarly) of two of his four races on soft going, FIRE BRIGADE is a worthy favourite from my viewpoint, though value for money is only conspicuous by its absence.

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Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Lincoln Handicap in the last 19 years which is a thoroughly decent return in such a competitive event, though just three of the other 15 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

Effect of the draw during the last fourteen years:

20-2-21-4 (22 ran-good to soft)

22-2-18-21 (22 ran-soft)

15-6-19-12 (22 ran-good)

3-22-20-18 (17 ran-soft)

3-1-19-10 (22 ran-soft)

12-21-9-2 (22 ran-good)

16-19-6-15 (21 ran-good)

1-5-10-14 (21 ran-soft)

9-3-2-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-3-16-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-21-2-1 (22 ran-good)

23-16-12-24 (24 ran-good)

6-7-1-12 (24 ran-good)

7-6-13-12 (23 ran-good to soft)

Doncaster record of course winners in the Lincoln Handicap:

2/3—Gabrial (2 x good)

1/1—Stamp Hill (good to soft)

2/6—Withernsea (soft & heavy)

1/2—Bravery (good to soft)

 

4.10: LIHOU and CAREY STREET are alternative each way types to consider though at the time of writing, LANGHOLM is a warm favourite to put in mildly given that this is the infamous ‘Brocklesby’ contest which has sent many an investor to an early grave!  Wasntexpectingthat is the other juvenile to consider according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Just nine of the 27 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years (three winners).

Draw details for the last fourteen renewals:

2-8-5 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

3-8-4 (10 ran-soft)

2-6-4 (9 ran-good)

2-6-8 (17 ran-soft)

13-4-15 (12 ran-soft)

10-1-9 (12 ran-good)

5-2-9 (12 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-soft)

14-11-21 (19 ran-good to firm)

19-14-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-18 (18 ran-good)

5-12-4 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12 (18 ran-good)

15-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

 

4.40: Tom Dacombe’s Declaration Of War colt PROSCHEMA ran well under these conditions on his second start as a juvenile and in terms of ‘laying off’ from a Placepot perspective, Richard Kingscote’s mount is the horse to play in the finale of our favourite wager.  That said, ARGENTELLO could be anything out of the Gosden yard if you are ‘chasing money’ (never recommended) towards the end of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Horses returned between 2/1* and 5/1 have won six of the last ten renewals, whilst runners sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed the other four contests.  It seems that each way bets between 11/2 and 12/1 in recent years have gone up in any amount of smoke, certainly from a win perspective at least.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stat for Doncaster on Saturday:

Richard Hannon secured a 703/1 treble at the corresponding (Lincoln Handicap) meeting last year – 3 runners today: Tabarrak (3.00), Moneyoryourlife (5.20) & Boycie (5.50)

 

NEWBURY ON SATURDAY – IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING:

Last year’s dividend £200.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.9% units went through – 7/1, 9/1 & 10/1 (4/1)

Race 2: 40.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2*, 7/1 & 8/1

Race 3: 43.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1**, 7/1**, 25/1 & 9/1

Race 4: 50.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/1, 14/1 & 2/1*

Race 5: 93.3% of the remaining units went through – 8/11* & 9/4

Race 6: 22.2% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2, 12/1 & 8/1 (9/2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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