HAYDOCK - NOVEMBER 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £459.30 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock:
Leg 1 (12.10): 2 (Dynamite Dollars) & 4 (Midnight Shadow)
Leg 2 (12.40): 4 (Belmount), 5 (Courtown Oscar) & 7 (Russe Blanc)
Leg 3 (1.15): 1 (Clan Des Obeaux), 5 (Vintage Clouds) & 4 (Born Survivor)
Leg 4 (1.50): 4 (Verni), 1 (Clyne) & 3 (El Terremoto)
Leg 5 (2.25): 2 (Zarkandar), 14 (Templeross) & 3 (The Worlds End)
Leg 6 (3.00): 1 (Bristol De Mai) & 3 (Outlander)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.10: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests, with Paul Nicholls having trained one of them back in 2014. Paul has declared vintage raider DYNAMITE DOLLARS with an undeniable chance to get punters off to a flying start at the meeting, especially as Paul’s hat trick seeker seemed to make light of soft conditions the last day when sauntering to an eleven length victory. Just how bad the ground will be is unknown in the dead of night but either way, it’s difficult to envisage the late May foal finishing out of the ‘short field’ frame. MIDNIGHT SHADOW represents Sue Smith who has saddled two of her last eight runners to winning effect and taking into account that three of the beaten horses were returned at prices ranging between 40/1 & 150/1, the ratio is impressive enough to consider Sue’s four-year-old representative. DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last decade, whilst nine of the gold medallists during the period scored at a top price of 7/2.
12.40: I’ve talked before about media coverage and its glib comments before in general terms. Today we’re told by the trade press that BELMOUNT has “a bit to prove regarding the trip and the ground”. The trip remark is fair comment, but having finished ‘in the three’ four times via five assignments on heavy ground to date (winner of one of those contests), I suggest you take that comment with more than the proverbial pinch of salt! Nigel Twiston-Davies has won with three of his last eight runners for good measure, whereby BELMOUNT (eight-year-olds have won four of the six contests) is included in the Placepot mix alongside mud loving types such as fellow vintage representative COURTOWN OSCAR and RUSSE BLANC. who will return as a slight darker shade of grey than he appears in the parade ring I’ll wager! In contrast to the comments about Belmount, Hainan is 0/9 on soft/heavy ground but there’s not a word questioning his ability to act under today’s conditions! Win, lose or draw the advice is simple. Don’t take comments literally unless they are backed up by written/spoken facts, pure and simple.
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 4/1 market leader was the first to score at the sixth attempt. Only two of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the second race on the card:
1/4—Emperor’s Choice (soft)
1.15: Paul Nicholls has secured the last five renewals and there is every chance that Paul’s great record will be extended here, the trainer having offered the green light to CLAN DES OBEAUX who has recorded his biggest margin of victory on soft ground thus far via a 4/11 ratio. The ground should not prove to be a problem for VINTAGE CLOUDS (runner up in this race twelve months ago), especially as his latest victory was gained over an extended three miles, whereby he should be staying on when others have cried enough. BORN SURVIVOR is another contender who acts on the ground (as well as any thoroughbred can) which sets us up nicely for an interesting ‘Graduation Chase’ to witness.
Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top price of 7/2 to date, statistics which include two winning favourites at 11/10 and 11/4. The other four market leaders all missed out on Placepot positions as the relevant events were of the ‘win only’ variety.
Record of the course winner in the line-up:
1/7—Vintage Clouds (soft)
1.50: I note that Skybet are already taking evasive action about the chance of VERNI, albeit Richard Johnson’s mount is held on the book by CLYNE, though mainly because of the five pound claimer in the saddle relating to the mud loving top weight. Although twelve pounds higher in the weights thanks to an impressive Stratford win the last day, last year’s heavy ground winner EL TERREMOTO cannot be eliminated from my enquiries given his 11/1 quote (Betfair/Paddy Power) at the time of writing. Certainly not from a value for money Placepot perspective, albeit I concede that this is a deeper race twelve months on.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far, stats which include two (9/4 & 3/1) winners.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
2/3—Clyne (soft & heavy)
1/2—El Terremoto (heavy)
1/1—Chti Balko (heavy)
2.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, facts which led me to short listing two of the last three (12/1 & 9/1) winners. Last year’s race was secured by an older contender and I would not rule out a half decent effort from ZARKANDAR here at around the 20/1 mark. A winner of two of his three races on heavy ground, Zarkandar’s race record of 11/33 stand very close inspection, notwithstanding an additional ten silver/bronze medals. I’m having an each way bet on the old boy to minimum stakes, whilst adding TEMPLEROSS and THE WORLDS END into the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders (via eleven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth event:
1/1—Zarkandar (good to soft)
1/1—The Worlds End (good to soft)
3.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled six of the last eleven winners and I am a little surprised that Paul has not been tempted into taking on the market leaders here, given that there are question marks about both horses. CUE CARD has landed up on the floor in two of his last three races, whilst BRISTOL DE MAI looked to be on a regressive route before turning back the tide the last day. Both horses are class acts on their day, as is OUTLANDER but all three runners at this stage of their respective careers would have struggled to win this event had some of the former winners in their prime been in the field. That said, it should make into an interesting event and presuming that Cue Card will represent poor value from a Placepot perspective, I’ll opt for the other pair, though if the eleven year-old turns back the years, nobody will be roaring him on more than yours truly, providing (of course) that one of the other pair join him in the Placepot result.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven warm favourites (five of them winners of their respective races at 4/6, 4/5, 10/11, 11/10 & 15/8) have reached the frame to date. The other (2/5--4/5--15/8--3/1) market leaders missed out from a Placepot perspective.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/2—Bristol De Mai (soft & heavy)
3/4—Cue Card (2 x soft & heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Saturday – followed by 5 year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 winners—Dan Skelton (6/49 – loss of 18 points)
5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (14/78 – loss of 9 points)
4—Paul Nicholls (14/66 – loss of 18 points)
4—Sue Smith (10/94 +15)
3—Colin Tizzard (4/18 – loss of 2 points)
2—Peter Bowen (3/19 – loss of 4 points)
2—Gordon Elliott (0/20)
2—Harry Fry (3/13 +5)
2—Philip Hobbs (8/60 – loss of 12 points)
2—Sophie Leech (1/4 +3)
2—Donald McCain (10/77 – loss of 27 points)
2—Dr Richard Newland (2/14 +1)
2—Fergal O’Brien (1/19 – loss of 8 points)
2—Evan Williams (8/59 +42)
2—Nick Williams (3/17 +7)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ascot: £39.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Huntingdon: £182.70 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £288.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £9.30 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced