Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 26th August

YORK – EBOR HANDICAP DAY - 2017

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £423.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 5 (Mustashry) & 7 (Make Time)

Leg 2 (2.25): 12 (Bush House), 6 (Master Singer) & 8 (The Grand Visir)

Leg 3 (3.00): 11 (Stormbringer), 8 (Nobleman’s Quest) & 5 (Headway)

Leg 4 (3.35): 20 (Magic Circle), 17 (Wild Hacked) & 11 (Star Storm)

Leg 5 (4.10): 12 (Falabelle), 13 (Formidable Kitt) & 8 (To Wafij)

Leg 6 (4.40): 6 (Weekend Offender), 16 (Brorocco) & 13 (Storm King)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last 13 renewals and yet MUSTASHRY is the only vintage representative in the line up on this occasion.  If this were an NH event with similar trends in place on a big race day, Paul Nicholls would be all over it like a disease, not wanting just to trainer the winner, but also the second and the third!  That is one of the main differences between the codes, in that NH trainers follow the trends more, no matter what ‘media types’ would have you believe.  Fortunately Sir Michael Stoute is wise to the ‘edge’ this time around and I expect Michael’s recent Chelmsford winner to transfer his A/W form to turf successfully.  MAKE TIME is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest ahead of MONDIALISTE.

Favourite factor: Five of the last thirteen favourites have scored.  The biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1 since the turn of the Millennium.

Course record in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes:

1/3—Master The World (good)

1/4—Mondaliste (good)

 

2.25: 13 of the last 14 winners of the 'Melrose' carried weights of 9-4 or less whereby my speculative quartet against the field consists of MASTER SINGER, HERE AND NOW, BUSH HOUSE and THE GRAND VISIR.  All four horses are expected to outrun their current odds, with 16/1 about BUSH HOUSE arguably being the value for money call if you wanted yours truly to name one individual.  Hugo Palmer’s Canford Cliffs gelding is closely match with Bin Batutta on earlier form this season and yet Jo Gordon’s mount is twice the price of the Godlphin raider.  The other point to consider is that John Gosden’s only runner on the card is MASTER SINGER which makes for interesting reading to say the very least.

Favourite factor:  Three of the last 16 favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium during which time, whilst the last eight winners have scored at prices ranging between 8/1 & 28/1.

 

3.00: Kevin Ryan has secured the two of the last five renewals of this ‘Gimcrack‘ event (last year’s stable representative was pulled up), also having saddled Aamadeus Wold to score twelve years ago.  Kevin’s recent Redcar winner STORMBRINGER could be the ‘dark horse’ in the line up, though I trust Redcar form as much Arsenal’s defence these days.  Kevin becomes ‘attached’ to juvenile races when he gets his claws into the relevant contests and given the ammunition he has back at the ranch, his decision to offer the green light to his Dutch Art representative is good enough for me, certainly from a Placepot perspective at the very least.  Others to consider include Mark Johnston’s typically tenacious juvenile CARDSHARP alongside potential improvers in HEADWAY and NOBLEMAN’S QUEST.

Favourite factor:  Only two favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, albeit eleven of the last twelve winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Eight of the sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):

4-10-7 (10 ran-good)

9-5-4 (8 ran-good)

5-6-9 (9 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

6-7-23 (8 ran-good)

1-4-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-7-10 (11 ran-good)

4-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

5-2-4 (8 ran-good)

3-2 (6 ran-good to soft)

9-7-6 (13 ran-good)

2-4-3 (11 ran-soft)

9-5-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-4-1 (11 ran-good)

9-7-2 (9 ran-good)

2-5-3 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (10 ran-good)

7-5-8 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

 

3.35: The number of three-year-old declarations in the Ebor Handicap has dropped, with only the very best vintage representatives able to take their place in the line-up which disappoints yours truly to a fashion. The last junior winner was recorded in 2001 and once again, three-year-olds are conspicuous only by their absence on this occasion.  The 2015 seven-year-old winner was the first older horse (seven or more) to win in over 35 years.  12 of the last 15 winners have been drawn fourteen or higher, with only two winners drawn in single figures during the study period. The last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last 12 contests.  Taking the facts and stats into account, my ‘short list’ for the contest consists of MAGIC CIRCLE, WILD HACKED, NAKEETA and STAR STORM.  I immediately had the thought that MAGIC CIRCLE could be ‘thrown in’ for his next race when Ralph Beckett’s five year-old won the other day, without realising at the time that he was still entered in this event.  Getting in off the bottom mark in the race suggests to yours truly that the current 9/1 quote might just be the subject of a right old gamble leading up to flag fall.  We shall see, given that stall five does present us with a negative factor.  The reserve nomination is offered to LORD YEATS who just misses out via his mark in the handicap having done us a fine favour earlier in the season.

Favourite factor:  Two favourites have won via the last 18 renewals with 10 market leaders securing toteplacepot positions in the process.

Course winners in the Ebor Handicap:

1/1—Lord Yeats (soft)

1/2—Scarlet Dragon (good)

4/11—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

2/2—Magic Circle (good & good to soft)

 

4.10: Second and third favourites have decent records in this event of late, whilst the likes of FALABELLE, FORMIDABLE KITT and TO WAFIJ boast claims from my viewpoint in another difficult race to assess on the card.  The latter named Roger Varian raider has not done a great deal wrong thus far whereby it could be argued that Roger’s Kodiac colt could be given another chance at a half decent price.  The first named pair both hail from stables which have saddled winners this week (I’m writing this column before racing took place on Friday), whereby the trio should give us a decent run for our collective Placepot monies, if we are fortunate enough to be in the mix this late in the day.

Favourite factor:  Three favourites have won via the last 18 renewals, whilst 12 of the other 16 market leaders failed to reach the frame.  Only one favourite has obliged via 12 renewals during the last 13 years, though 10 of those gold medallists were returned at a top price of 17/2.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

5-8-1 (8 ran-good)

8-4-7 (9 ran-good)

1-6-4 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (6 ran-soft)

3-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

10-1-4 (10 ran-good)

9-13-6 (13 ran-good)

2-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2-7 (10 ran-good)

6-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

4-6-7 (10 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-soft)

2-6-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-2-9 (10 ran-good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

8-4-2 (8 ran-good)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

7-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good)

Course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Angel Force (good to soft)

 

4.40: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals, whilst securing 24 of the last 47 available toteplacepot positions.  Vintage representatives are 6/4 to improve the ratio via eight relevant declarations this time around.  11 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less whereby a value for money ‘short list’ of WEEKEND OFFFENDER, BROROCCO and STORM KING emerges.  The latter named David Griffiths raider does not fit the vintage trend but David knows how to place his horses well enough to include his hat trick seeker in the equation. It might be as well to consider David’s impressive 3/7 stats here at York at the time of writing, with the trainer boasting 19 points of level profit stakes for good measure.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to UAE PRINCE.

Favourite factor:  Ten of the last nineteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which includes five winners during the study period.

Draw factor (ten and a furlongs):

2-12-13-6 (16 ran-good)

15-7-17 (15 ran-good)

9-16-5 (15 ran-good)

10-5-6 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-11-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

4-15-7-9 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-12-10-15 (18 ran-good)

7-10-11-14 (17 ran-good to firm)

14-20-17-16 (18 ran-good)

14-3-1-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-13-12 (19 ran-good)

8-10-1 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-4-2 (9 ran-good)

16-7-2-17 (19 ran-good)

1-16-10-12 (17 ran-good)

5-4-11 (11 ran-good)

3-9-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-14-9-4 (16 ran-good)

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4--Snoano (good to soft)

1/5—Weekend Offender (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Saturday:

7 runners—Richard Fahey

7—Mark Johnston

7—David O’Meara

4—Kevin Ryan

4—Sir Michael Stoute

3—Andrew Balding

3—Declan Carroll

3—Tim Easterby

3—William Haggas

3—Iain Jardine

3—Hugo Palmer

3—Saeed Bin Suroor

3—Roger Varian

2—David Barron

2—Ralph Beckett

2—John Best

2—Clive Cox

2—Tom Dascombe

2—Michael Dods

2—Mick Easterby

2—David C Griffiths

2—Richard Hannon

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

113 declared runners 

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £48.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Goodwood: £253.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Newmarket: £59.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Redcar: £203.50 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £60.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Cartmel: £51.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

 

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *