CHESTER – MAY 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £15.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 93.3% units went through – 9/4 – 7/1 – 11/10*
Race 2: 54.5% of the remaining units when through – 4/1* - 15/2 – 9/2
Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 50/1 – 12/1
Race 4: 50.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 5/1 – 5/1 (2/1)
Race 5: 82.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* - 10/1 – 10/1
Race 6: 31.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 – 20/1 – 16/1 (2 x 5/2**)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Chester:
Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Dragon Moon) & 7 (Wind Storm)
Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Awesome), 5 (Lamya) & 10 (Stewardess)
Leg 3 (2.55): 2 (South Seas), 6 (Sabador) & 4 (Muntadab)
Leg 4 (3.30): 8 (Precision), 3 (Humble Hero) & 1 (Night Of Glory)
Leg 5 (4.05): 6 (Key To Note) & 3 (Port Of Laith)
Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Jabbarr), 1 (Desert Ruler) & 6 (Be Perfect)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
1.45: DRAGON MOON is asked to give eleven pounds to WIND STORM and the concession might be too much for Richard Hannon’s recent Lingfield winner, despite the fact that the form was franked by Crossing The Line on Thursday. Ralph Beckett’s Holy Roman Emperor filly holds two other entries next week but with only five other rivals to beat, I doubt that Ralph will change his mind, even with WIND STORM having ‘trap six’ to overcome in this ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chester.
2.20: If there is one word in the dictionary which dives me crackers it’s AWESOME. Not the actual word you understand, it’s the way that Americans pronounce the term, especially as the word is (seemingly) included in every other sentence they speak! Upwards and onward by suggesting that Clive Cox’s Bahamian Bounty filly should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, though her number nine stall tempers enthusiasm to a fashion. Better housed horses such as LAMYA (1/10) and STEWARDESS (4) can make things interesting in the short straight.
Favourite factor: Another new race on the Chester card.
2.55: All three winners have carried weights between 8-10 & 9-1 and two horses ‘qualify’ via the weight stats on this occasion, namely, SABADOR and SOUND ADVICE. Roger Fell is a shrewd trainer and no mistake and his recent 4/10 strike rate catches the eye, especially having secured 13 points of level stake profit during the period. Roger’s raider MUNTADAB would have been the third qualifier (via the weights) but for a five pound claimer having been booked to ride. I’m going to add MUNTADAB into the equation given Roger’s great form of late. The other horse to catch the eye is SOUTH SEAS who has dropped into the positive ‘sector’ of the handicap via another apprentice booking, this time being made by trainer Andrew Balding.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (5/6) winner.
Chester record of course winners in the third event on the card:
1/5—Above The Rest (good to soft)
4/10—Sound Advice (3 x good & good to firm)
1/1—The Feathered Nest (good)
2/7—Penwortham (2 x good)
3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight contests, with seven winners carrying a minimum weight of 8-11. Putting the stats and facts together, PRECISION and HUMBLE HERO stand out from the crowd from my viewpoint. The pair is listed in order of preference on account of the draw, five over nine in a twelve runner field. How many horses will be withdrawn because of ‘car park’ positions in the stalls remains to be seen. NIGHT OF GLORY (1) is offered the reserve nomination, though having only had one ride around the track, five pound claimer Jason Watson will have to be on top form, albeit the young pilot has ridden 28 winners to date.
Favourite factor: All eight race during the last decade have failed to produce a winning favourite, with gold medallists ranging between 5/2 and 25/1 during the period, creating a successful average price of 11/2. The last five market leaders have all finished out with the washing.
Chester record of the five course winners in the field:
1/1—Star Of The East (good)
1/1—Tor (good to soft)
1/17—Gabrial’s King (good)
2/8—Zenafire (good & good to soft)
4.05: With Tom Dascombe’s local newcomer Smoki Smoka still “looking a bit weak’ back in the spring via a stable tour, I’m inclined to opt for Mark Johnston’s experienced pair PORT OF LEITH and KEY TO POWER against their four rivals in a juvenile event which should not prove difficult to win. Mark’s Slade Power filly KEY TO NOTE beat seven others home on debut when finding one too good on her first day at school at Thirsk. Any amount of normal improvement (whatever that is) from race one to two should see her home with something to spare from trap four.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.
4.40: With over 53% of Iain Jardine’s winners on the flat being secured at the three tracks which house racing on the level in Scotland, we have to tread carefully when the trainer ventures ‘south’ but Ian might snare his third success on the Roodee with JABBAARR in our final heat. Iain has become a class act and Phillip Makin’s mount looks set to take maximum advantage of his trap one position. DESERT RULER (3/10) and BE PERFECT (4) can chase home the selection.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Chester programme.
Chester record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/4—Be Perfect (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.