KEMPTON – Saturday 27th February
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £64.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners--1 placed--2 unplaced)
2.00: Although this is a 'new race' in some lists, it's purely a technical point and I trust you will side with me in wanting to know what has happened in the 'Adonis' down the years. Some of the previous winners of this event have gone all the way to the top of their respective sectors down the years, including Well Chief, Snow Drop and Punjabi, notwithstanding the likes of Binocular, Bilboa and Penzance. Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last nine winners (not represented two years ago), whilst Paul Nicholls has trained the same number of gold medallists via his last nine representatives. Nicky saddles Khezerabad this time around, whilst Pilansbwerg and Zubayr represent Paul Nicholls. It's worth noting the horses that successful trainers enter in these races, irrespective of how they run on the day. Last year's representatives (as an example) both went on to win races within their next two assignments at 16/1 and 4/1. This is the type of thinking we need to put into our analysis of certain races, especially when dealing with inmates of the top stables. As for more logical winners of this Class 1 (Grade 2) contest, I'm hoping that GIBRALFARO will outpoint ST SAVIOUR on the run to the line.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won this event during the last 17 years whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 8/1. Thirteen of the seventeen market leaders finished in the money in this Triumph Hurdle trial.
Kempton record of course winners in the opening event:
1/1--Gibralfaro (C&D winner)
2.35: Paul Nicholls has saddled eight of the last 10 winners whereby MON SUCCESSEUR comes straight into contention, especially as nine of the last 19 runners from the Ditcheat base had won at the time of writing. Official figures also suggest that Paul's five-year-old will take the beating, with THE SAINT JAMES potentially offering most resistance ahead of KILLALA QUAY from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include 10 winners.
Kempton record of course winners in the second contest on the card:
3.05: Sire De Grugy was one of the quintet of five-year-old winners of this race during the last decade and though it does not look as though this renewal will produce a champion like Gary Moore's grand servant, vintage representatives WINTER ESCAPE and MARRACUDJA could well extend the good record between this on this occasion. The pair are listed in order of preference at the time of writing. WINTER ESCAPE has won his two hurdle assignments in the style of a really progressive type and it would be disappointing if Alan King's raider lets the side down.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last 15 renewals of this Grade 2 contest, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame. 12 winners have scored at odds of 6/1 or less during the study period.
Kempton record of course winners in the third event:
3.35: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, having snared seven of the last 17 renewals of this Grade 3 event. 11 of the last 13 winners have carried 10-12 or more and putting the two factors together, two horses qualify for my overnight mix this time around, namely LE REVE and CHAMPAGNE WEST. The two entries are listed in order of preference though if the eight-year-olds are to be denied on this occasion, ROC D'APSIS and last year's winner ROCKY CREEK could prove to be the jokers in the pack.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 17 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
Kempton record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/1--Rocky Creek (C&D winner)
1/3--Le Reve<br />
1/3--Opening Batsman (C&D winner)
4.10: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-2 or more which eliminates the bottom six horses in the handicap if you take the stats seriously and possibly as many as nine if the jockeys claim their respective allowances. Seven-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals and narrowing the field, my toteplacepot finale permutation consists of CLEAN SHEET and last year's gold medallist SHAMMICK BOY. The only horse that 'qualifes' on both counts is CLEAN SHEET. The pair are listed in order of preference accordingly, possibly joined by KING KAYF and BLUE ATLANTIC come sun up.
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has obliged during the last 16 years with 10 of the 21 market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. 12 contests have slipped by since the only successful favourite scored. Six of the relevant 10 winners scored at 33/1-22/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-10/1.
Kempton record of course winners in the fifth:
1/3--Shammick Boy (C&D winner)
4.45: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals yet that 'edge' (if you believe in trends) has bypassed the trainers on this occasion. Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-8 which brings CERNUNNOS, ERICHT and SHAMMICK BOY into the overnight equation. The latter named Chris Gordon raider is another winner from last year's corresponding meeting with definite claims, particularly from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last 15 renewals of this event were secured by market leaders. The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 7/1. The last nine favourites have finished in the frame (exact science).
Kempton record of course winners in the toteplacepot:
2/4--Comeonginger (Dual C&D winner)
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Saturday:
69 declared runners