DONCASTER - OCTOBER 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £884.40 (7 favourites - No winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (1.45): 4 (Speak In Colous), 9 (Sankari Royale) & 5 (Staxton)
Leg 2 (2.20): 2 (Al Hajar) & 1 (Zap)
Leg 3 (2.55): 9 (Lawless Society), 8 (Reshoun) & 2 (Burguillos)
Leg 4 (3.25): 8 (Saxon Warrior) & 11 (The Pentagon)
Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (East Street Revue), 17 (Rasheeq), 14 (Paddy Power) & 15 (Exceed The Limit)
Leg 6 (4.35): 6 (Sir Dancelot), 1 (Jalotta) & 2 (Intisaab)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.45: Night Of Thunder won this race four years ago en route to his Newmarket Guineas success, though unless one of the horses improves tremendously here, I doubt that we will be seeing next year's first classic winner of the 2018 season. I short listed last year’s 20/1 winner Rose Briar in the contest, with SANKARI ROYALE being my idea of the best outsider in the field this time around. Johnny Murtagh does well with the small number of raiders he saddles this side of the Irish Sea, not forgetting what a fine horseman he was in the saddle in his day. It’s worth noting that Marco Botti saddled the 4/7 winner two years ago and I note overnight interest in his Excelebration colt SPEAK IN COLOURS on the exchanges overnight. STAXTON is well and truly exposed now, though Tim Easterby’s Equiano colt barely knows how to run a bad race, whilst David Allan’s mount is two pounds better off with Rebel Assault for a two length beating the last day at York. At the odds on offer this morning, I’ll opt for STAXTON to take revenge here.
Favourite factor: Five clear favourites, two joint market leaders and one co-favourite (of four) have scored in recent years. 14 of the 27 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period, whilst I am duty bound to remind you that the 4/6 favourite Sayif finished last of eleven nine years ago.
Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent renewal offered first):
2-1-7 (11 ran-good)
9-3-4 (9 ran-good to soft)
5-1-2 (8 ran-soft)
6-5 (5 ran-soft)
2-1 (6 ran-soft)
1-4-11 (10 ran-good)
3-7-2 (8 ran-good)
4-2-1 (10 ran-good to soft)
12-5-2 (11 ran-good)
8-4-1 (12 ran-good)
3-6-9 (9 ran-heavy)
2-7-4 (8 ran-soft)
4-6-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
4-7-6 (9 ran-good)
6-10-1 (8 ran-heavy)
6-2-5 (10 ran-soft)
8-5-2 (8 ran-soft)
8-2 (7 ran-heavy)
8-3-2 (10 ran-good)
2.20: You cannot often say that a horse appears to be ‘thrown in’ for a Nursery contest, though AL HAJAR (solid as a rock on the exchanges at the time of writing at around the 11/8 mark) bears all the hallmarks of a good thing in the second race on the card, especially given his first time cheek-pieces to enable the Dark Angel to concentrate on the job in hand. Favourites have a fair record in this event (see below) given that two-year-old handicaps can prove to be benefit races for the layers, though hopefully that will not be the case today. Richard Fahey has saddled two of the last three winners in renewals in which his yard was represented, whereby ZAP is offered up as the alternative each way play if you want to take on the market leader.
Favourite factor: Four market leaders have won during the last decade, whilst 11/12 favourites have finished in the frame in those ten years. This type of stat is almost unheard of in the Nursery sector. Having written the book ‘Nursery Class’ many years ago, I can assure you that I did not find a two-year-old handicap event that offered such statistics throughout my studies!
2.55: The first horse I listed last year (To Be Wild) won the contest at 6/1 and having been followed home by two 20/1 shots on the day, this was the race that set up the £884.40 Placepot dividend twelve months ago. Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last nineteen renewals (the last three winners at 14/1, 6/1 and 9/4 were included in my mix) and I simply could not believe that Argus was the only junior raider two years ago before justifying favouritism at 9/4. 12 of the last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3 which definitely brings LAWLESS SOCIETY and RESHOUN into the overnight equation. That said, four-year-old BURGUILLOS is the money horse overnight and with Alan King saddling over 80% of his winners at a minimum trip of ten furlongs (albeit via 74% of his total number of runners on the level), Ryan Moore’s mount has to be included in the mix.
Favourite factor: Three clear favourites have scored alongside a joint market leader via the last 19 renewals of this event. Eight of the 20 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. Only two favourites have prevailed during the last 12 years however, whilst five winners were returned in double figures ranging in odds between 10/1 & 28/1.
3.25: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven winners of this Racing Post Trophy event during the last 20 years. Although four years have slipped by since Aidan last saddled the winner, it should be noted that his raiders have occupied the runner up on each and every occasion! Nobody would surely deny Aidan breaking the world record for the number of Group 1 races in a year here, with his Group 2 Beresford Stakes winner SAXON WARRIOR looking to hold every chance in the race. With THE PENTAGON looking a worthy ‘second string’ to say the least (notwithstanding two outsiders to make up the O’Brien contingent), Aidan looks set fair to smash up the record book which this humble man truly deserves. Verbal Dexterity and Roaring Lion (popular on the exchanges at the time of writing) more than deserve their respective places in the line up but hopefully this will be Aidan’s day, just for a change! Talking of records, I cannot let the race slip by without reminding you that Sir Henry Cecil saddled no less than ten winners of this event down the years. Henry was another of the trainers who would always offer equal credit to his entire staff when interviewed (almost embarrassed to be congratulated), just like Aidan does.
Favourite factor: 10 of the last 19 favourites have won this last Group 1 event of the season on these shores, though just three of the other nine market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions.
Draw factor (eight furlongs):
5-2-8 (10 ran-good)
4-1 (7 ran-soft)
3-6-7 (8 ran-soft)
8-6-9 (11 ran-soft)
7-1 (7 ran-soft)
6-5 (5 ran-good)
3-8-6 (10 ran-good)
9-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)
10-3-6 (15 ran-good)
6-9-11 (12 ran-good)
1-7 (7 ran-heavy)
5-7-2 (8 ran-soft)
4 (4 ran-good to firm)
2-8-1 (9 ran-soft)
3-5 (6 ran-heavy)
9-10-5 (10 ran-soft)
8-2-6 (9 ran-soft)
4-1 (6 ran-heavy)
4-7-1 (8 ran-good)
Record of the course winner in the Racing Post Trophy:
1/1—Seahenge (good to soft)
4.00: Three and four-year-olds have won nine of the last 13 renewals, with four-year-olds leading 6-3 in the process, the type of stats which led me to naming last year’s 14/1 winner (Soie D’Leau) as the first name on my team sheet. The last eight winners have carried a maximum of 9-3, with EAST STREET REVUE, PADDY POWER, RASHEEQ and EXCEED THE LIMIT all possessing ticks in both of the trend boxes. High numbers have held the edge as you can see below, with three of my four ‘selections’ hailing from decent stall positions. Only Paddy Power (1/17) seemingly has something to prove but then again, trainer Richard Fahey has overcome plenty of ‘inferior scenarios’ down the years which failed to stop him snaring the swag.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 22 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three winners.
Draw factor (five furlongs):
17-18-9-3 (21 ran-good)
6-2-10-12 (18 ran-good to soft)
4-7-22-1 (19 ran-soft)
16-3-12-17 (19 ran-soft)
22-9-8-21 (21 ran-soft)
10-17-9-6 (20 ran-good)
1-15-18-20 (21 ran-good)
16-9-7-21 (20 ran-good to soft)
16-22-8-3 (20 ran-good)
15-7-8-4 (17 ran-good)
3-16-11-6 (21 ran-heavy)
13-6-4 (13 ran-soft)
1-9-7 (14 ran-good to firm)
6-14-8 (13 ran-soft)
1-14-10 (13 ran-heavy)
1-4-13-21 (18 ran-soft)
7-9-13 (14 ran-soft)
8-3-1 (9 ran-heavy)
15-14-6-4 (22 ran-good)
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/3—Spring Loaded (good to soft)
1/5—Soie D’Leau (good)
4.35: Punters of a nervous disposition should refrain from looking at the favourite stats below if they are contemplating backing SIR DANCEALOT who has proved expensive to follow of late. Yes, Ryan Moore’s mount has all the credentials to win the Placepot finale though equally, this seven runner event has all the hallmarks of a dangerous race in which to bank on one or two horses. Accordingly, I will also be offering JALOTTA and David O’Meara’s course winner INTISAAB in a race in which I am not taking anything for granted.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last decade during which time, three winners have emerged in double figures and those gold medallists all scored within the last six years. Only two of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame, stats which include one casualty which was sent off at odds of 4/6.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/4—Intsaab (good to firm)
1/1—Lavetta (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with two or more runners at Doncaster today, followed by the number of winners they have saddled (where relevant) at this corresponding meeting during the last five years:
7 runners—Tim Easterby
5—Richard Fahey (5)
4—Aidan O’Brien (1)
3—Mark Johnston (2)
2—Mick Channon (2)
2—Charlie Hills (1)
+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
74 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newbury: £1,034.30 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 unplaced – 4 unplaced
Cheltenham: £476.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Kelso: £310.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar