ASCOT - JULY 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £341.30 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Spring Cosmos) & 5 (Nyaleti)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Masham Star), 4 (Naval Warfare), 6 (Pealer) & 5 (Mustarrid)
Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Fastnet Tempest), 4 (Remarkable) & 5 (Above The Rest)
Leg 4 (3.35): 10 (Enable) & 2 (Highland Reel)
Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Tigre Du Terre) & 3 (Being There)
Leg 6 (4.45): 8 (Imperial State), 13 (Tommy G), 2 (Supersta) & 5 (Georgian Bay)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: NYALETI looks a tad short around the 7/4 mark at the time of writing, albeit Mark Johnston’s filly will be included in my Placepot mix alongside SPRING COSMOS and (possibly) DANCE DIVA. If I had to have a bet from a win perspective, SPRING COSMOS would have to be the value for money call at 5/1 even though Indicia let the form down to a fashion at this venue yesterday. SPRING COSMOS still holds an entry for Wednesday’s Goodwood Group 3 ‘Molecomb’ event, whereby you should keep an eye on the non-runners board in case Charlie Appleby believes the ground is too soft when he arrives at the track today.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders have won during the last fourteen years alongside two joint favourites. Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.
2.25: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-8 which eliminates half the field (6/12) if you believe in trends. MASHAM STAR appeals as one of the better each way bets on the day, especially as Mark Johnston has won with two 33/1 chance on this card in recent years, albeit not in this particular race. MASHAM STAR handles the ground and runs off the same mark as when runner up two starts ago in the same grade. Others to consider include NAVAL WARFARE, PEALER and MUSTARRID who is weighted to beat the favourite for this event (Century Dream) according to my abacus.
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have finished in the frame by securing gold and silver medals.
3.00: I made a strong case for 33/1 winner Galician four years ago, whilst Heavy Metal was the first horse mentioned in dispatches at the same price twelve months on! Four-year-olds have won 12 of the last 17 renewals, whilst 15 of the last 19 winners have scored at 9/1 or more. 11 of the last 13 gold medallists have carried weights of 8-9 or more and adding all the stats and facts together produces a short list of FASTNET TEMPEST, REMARKABLE and ABOVE THE REST.
Favourite factor: Just one clear market leader and one joint favourites have won via eighteen renewals to date, whilst just five of the twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the third contest:
1/11—Squats (good to firm)
1/3—Fastnet Tempest (good to firm)
2/15—Heaven’s Guest (soft & good to soft)
2/14—Jack Dexter (good to soft & soft)
3.35: Four-year-olds have won eleven renewals during the last fourteen years in the ‘King George‘, the other three contests having been secured by three-year-olds. Six consecutive favourites scored between 2004 and 2009, though there was a gap of six years until the next market leader obliged twelve months ago. There is no doubting that dual Oaks winner ENABLE (by an aggregate of ten and a half lengths) deserves her place at the head of the betting though once again. HIGHLAND REEL is being offered at a price which defies belief for a horse which has answered so many questions against him positively. Granted, conditions today might stop Ryan Moore’s mount from actually winning but there will be tens of 5/1 chances today that have less chance of scoring that Aidan O’Brien’s fine servant. A similar (slightly shorter) price is available about John Gosden’s ‘second string’ JACK HOBBS but by comparison to the Aidan’s raider, the 2015 Irish Derby winner still has much to prove, albeit this surface will suit compared to when ‘Jack’ contested a Royal Ascot assignment five weeks ago. Any further rain before flag fall (which is entirely possible) might shorten up the current 28/1 price about MY DREAM BOAT. If the wet stuff does not evolve, BENBATI could outrun his 16/1 price tag.
Favourite factor: Ten of the last sixteen favourites have prevailed, whilst the last eighteen gold medallists have emerged via the front five in the betting.
Record of course winners in the 'King George':
1/1—Desert Encounter (good to firm)
2/3—Highland Reel (2 x good to form)
1/1—Idaho (good to firm)
1/2—My Dream Boat (soft)
1/1—Benbati (good to firm)
4.10: ‘Team Hannon‘ have won two of the last five renewals and there is every chance that course and distance winner TIGRE DU TERRE can improve the ratio further still. A facile winner at the first time of asking on good ground, it could be argued that only soft conditions might stop Richard’s Le Havre colt from following up successfully. By comparison, the victory of BEING THERE at the second time of asking was hardly convincing though time and again, proven seven furlong winners make a mockery of the form book.
Favourite factor: Six of the twelve favourites have finished nearer last than first to date. That said, four of the last eight market leaders have obliged.
Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:
1/1—Tigre Du Terre (good)
4.45: Four-year-olds have won 10 of the last 18 contests, whilst you should always look out for pilots which ride winners of these races (for lady riders) on a regular basis. Putting those stats and facts together produces a short list of IMPERIAL STATE, TOMMY G, SUPERSTA and GEORGIAN BAY. The reserve nomination is awarded to Majestic Moon. If you are still in trouble after the Placepot races, I can pass on an each way word for Zambeasy in the last race at Ascot today (5.20) at around the 16/1 mark, especially as trainer Philip Hide has won with three of his last five runners. Zambeasy acts under these conditions for good measure.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (one winner), whilst the returned prices of winners include those at 33/1-33/1-20/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-11/1 during the study period.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/9—Majestic Moon (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by relevant winning prices for trainers who have saddled winners on this corresponding (‘King George’) card during the last five years:
7 runners—Richard Fahey (1 winner at 7/1)
6—John Gosden (1 winner at 7/2)
4—William Haggas (2 winners at 10/1 & 15/8*)
4—Mark Johnston (4 winners at 33/1, 33/1, 2/1* & 7/4*)
3—Ian Williams (1 winner at 14/1)
2—Roger Charlton (1 winner at 4/6*)
2—Richard Hannon (1 winner at 7/4)
2—Aidan O’Brien (1 winner at 13/8*)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor
Trainers who have 1 runner at the meeting who have saddled winners during the last five years:
1—Sir Michael Stoute (2 winners at 8/1 & 3/1)
1—Clive Cox (2/1*)
1—Simon Crisford (13/8*)
1—Michael Mullineaux (16/1)
+ 29 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
94 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chester: £297.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Newcastle: £256.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced
Newmarket: £33.70 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
York: £265.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Salisbury: £24.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £174.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced