NEWBURY – DECEMBER 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £461.80 (7 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (12.10): 1 (Cap Soleil) & 4 (Banjo Girl)
Leg 2 (12.45): 3 (Fountains Windmill), 1 (Black Corton) & 5 (Wait For Me)
Leg 3 (1.20): 5 (O Maonlai), 4 (On Tour) & 6 (Gold Present)
Leg 4 (1.50): 3 (Air Force One) & 4 (Coeur De Lion)
Leg 5 (2.25): 1 (Charli Parcs), 7 (Cosmeapolitan) & 4 (Amore De Nuit)
Leg 6 (3.00): 14 (Missed Approach), 5 (Label Des Obeaux), 3 (American) & 2 (Whisper)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.10: Dual course winner CAP SOLEIL has her ground and is being backed off the boards to extend her good Newbury record in this (otherwise) slightly disappointing ‘short field’ event. Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date whereby BANJO GIRL could prove to be the value for money alternative each way (and/or forecast) option. New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
2/2—Cap Soleil (2 x good to soft)
12.45: Paul Nicholls has secured three of the last seven contests in which his stable was represented and Paul goes to war with his progressive six-year-old gelding BLACK CORTON who comes to the gig on a six-timer. I successfully opposed Thistlecrack yesterday and as much as I would like to see Bryony Frost record another victory aboard Paul’s raider, I prefer the chance of FOUNTAINS WINDMILL today. Course winner WAIT FOR ME completes my trio against the other two options. I apologise for the lack of some additional facts and stats today but I am suffering from a nasty virus/bug I picked up (I’ll wager) in one of my two visits to medical centres this week.
Favourite factor: Only three favourites have obliged during the last eleven years though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 8/1. Only four of the last eleven market leaders secured Placepot positions in another short field contest.
Record of the course winner in the second event:
1/3—Wait For Me (soft)
1.20: Ten of the last thirteen winners of this event have carried weights of 11-5 or more and we have six ‘qualifiers’ to assess this year. A claiming pilot is responsible for ON TOUR slipping below the ‘superior’ weight barrier, though that has not stopped punters investing their money on the Evan Williams raider on the exchanges overnight. Last year’s winner O MAONLAI returns to defend his crown under similar conditions carrying just two pounds more than was the case twelve months ago, despite being rated a six pound better horse this time around. GOLD PRESENT will not represent great value though equally, it’s difficult to leave Nicky Henderson’s local hope out of the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Seven of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winning favourites.
Record of the course winner in the third contest:
2/5—Warriors Tale (good to soft & soft)
1/1—Different Gravy (soft)
2/6—O Maonlai (2 x good to soft)
2/2—Potters Cross (2 x good to soft)
1/2—No Buts (soft)
1/5—Little Jon (soft)
1.50: AIR FORCE ONE (seemingly) does to know how to run a bad race pure and simple, and it will take a brave punter to ignore his Placepot claims on the card. Harry Fry’s six-year-old has won two of his four races under these projected (soft) conditions which should ensure that Noel Fehily’s mount is bang in contention at the business end of the contest, hopefully alongside COEUR DE LION who is another interesting runner for Alan King who is the joint leading trainer on this corresponding day at Newbury during the last five years on the five winner mark.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader frustratingly missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth on behalf of the Skelton team.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/1—Old Guard (soft)
1/2—Maestro Royal (good to soft)
2.40: Four-year-olds have won six renewals during the last eleven years and the two relevant entries (from top stables – they know stats matter) both hold decent chances, namely CHARLI PARCS (Nicky Henderson) and COSMEAPOLITAN (Alan King). I spoke of Alan being the joint leading trainer earlier in the analysis and it is Paul Nicholls who has also landed five victories in recent times. Paul saddles AMORE DE NUIT here, edging out High Bridge relating to my Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the study period, eight of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst each way investors might have backed the other trio who were sent off at 8/1, 11/1 & 16/1.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
2/2—High Bridge (good to soft & soft)
1/1—Poppy Kay (good to soft)
1/2—Cosmeapolitan (good to soft)
3.00: Six and seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 14 renewals of the ‘Hennessy’, with the seven-year-olds leading 6-5 in recent times. Indeed, seven-year-olds have secured six of the last 12 contests. The average official mark of the winners during the study period was 153. Taking the stats and facts into consideration, I have limited the field down to five runners, plenty of which offer value for money. Alan King saddled the winner two years ago and his six-year-old raider LABEL DES OBEAUX is a six-year-old running off an official mark of 153. Warren Greatrex has saddled a couple of winners on the corresponding card in recent years and the booking of Richard Johnson for his seven-year-old representative MISSED APPROACH catches the eye in no uncertain terms. These horses are available at 33/1 and 25/1 respectively at the time of writing and can give investors a decent run for their collective monies according to the gospel of yours truly. The other short listed runners consist of AMERICAN, WHISPER and COGRY. Best of luck!
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won this event during the last 20 years, though just two of the other 14 market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions. 12 of the last 14 winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/3—Coneygree (2 x soft)
1/1—Missed Approach (soft)
2/4—Bigbadjohn (good % good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card – followed by their five year total of winners at the corresponding Saturday meeting during the last five years:
8 runners—Paul Nicholls (5)
6—Nicky Henderson (2)
3—Tom George (1)
3—Colin Tizzard (4)
2—Rebecca Curtis (1)
2—Philip Hobbs (4)
2—Evan Williams (1)
+ I runner for Warren Greatrex who has saddled two winners down the years
+ 17 other different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
73 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bangor: £79.60 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Doncaster: £37.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Newcastle (NH): £101.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £125.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced