NEWMARKET - SEPTEMBER 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £440.20 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Nelson) & 6 (Roaring Lion)
Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Clemmie) & 12 (Threading)
Leg 3 (2.55): 11 (Unfortunately), 7 (Hey Jonesy) & 12 (U S Navy Flag)
Leg 4 (3.35): 16 (Greenside), 6 (Linguistic), 13 (Chelsea Lad), 29 (Brorocco) & 8 (Big Country)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Bye Bye Baby) & 1 (Altyn Orda)
Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Clubbable), 2 (Exhort) & 3 (Time Change)
Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: The fact that Aidan O’Brien’s Group winner NELSON meets his rivals here on level terms is an obvious pointer towards his chance, albeit ROARING LION could yet be anything. Add MILDENBERGER into the mix and we have a race to savour for starters. Although five years have passed without Aidan O’Brien having lifted the prize, five previous renewals have been secured by the Ballydoyle maestro down the years.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders reached the frame (exact science) during the study period.
2.20: Aidan O’Brien grabs centre stage again here, though it is a shame that Heartache does not line up against CLEMMIE in what had potentially looked a fascinating clash in the ‘Cheveley Park’. Aidan secured a one-two in the race last year with a 25/1 chance beating an 11/2 stable companion, with the 4/6 favourite (Lady Aurelia) missing out on a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest. CLEMMIE could be as short as 11/8 with Clive Cox having ‘pulled the plug’, though Mark Johnston’s unbeaten Exceed And Excel filly THREADING looks sure to down down with all guns blazing, should that scenario unfold. Connections of THREADING would be quite happy if a rogue shower evolves though that potential ‘edge’ looks unlikely. That said either way, CLEMMIE (brother of Churchill) looks to be a similarly progressive type and should take the beating. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the study period, whilst 12 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process. Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.
2.55: Three of the last six winners have scored at 25/1—25/1—22/1, notwithstanding the defeat of the 1/2 favourite (Ivawood) three years ago. Bookmakers will be rubbing their grubby hands together in anticipation of what looks to be a competitive (if not sparkling) renewal of the ‘Middle Park’. Karl Burke has placed UNFORTUNATELY to brilliant effect in France on his last two assignments, Karl’s Society Rock representative having picked up Group 1 and Group 2 prizes across the channel of late. With Karl having saddled plenty of winner in the south of the country this time as well, the trainer has been enjoying his travels this year and today could be another red letter day for the yard. That said, I offer each way chances to HEY JONESY and U S NAVY FLAG, with both horses added into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the 'Middle Park' during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites during the period secured toteplacepot positions.
3.35: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Cambridgeshire’ have carried a maximum burden of 9-4. Five of the first seven horses home in 2012 were drawn twenty or higher (the same ratio from stalls 17+ in 2013) and the draw stats below suggest unless the going is soft, horses from higher numbers tend to hold an edge. That said, if a horse is to win from a low number this time around, LINGUISTIC (drawn 5/35) would be the call, given that John Gosden looks to have targeted this race for some time relating to his (good to soft) course winner. Two horses possessing 2/2 ratios here on the Rowley Mile catch the eye, namely GREENSIDE (28) and CHELSEA LAD (10), with preference going to the first named Henry Candy raider on account of the draw. Both horses have won with moisture in the ground at the track however, whereby Chelsea Lad is not just included to make up the numbers. BIG COUNTRY (17) and BROROCCO (33) should have the ground drying out in their favour (no rain for Newmarket today according to the radar at one o’clock this morning) from the side of the course that should have the edge. Very Talented (3rd in the race last year - has not raced since) is offered up the the reserve nomination. Best of luck!
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won the ‘Cambridgeshire’ in the last 19 years which is a respectable record given the competitive nature of this event. Eight of the 24 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.
Draw factor--nine furlongs:
2016: 28-35-8-13 (31 ran-good to firm)
2015: 7-1-17-4 (34 ran-good)
2014: 11-28-14-10 (31 ran-good to firm)
2013: 4-28-3-20 (31 ran-good to firm)
2012: 21-7-2-12 (33 ran-good)
2011: 31-5-24-27 (32 ran-good to firm)
2010: 3-20-15-22 (35 ran-soft)
2009: 12-6-34-24 (32 ran-good to firm)
2008: 15-35-34-27 (28 ran-good to firm)
2007: 25-16-31-19 (34 ran-good to firm)
2006: 20-27-21-28 (33 ran-good to soft)
2005: 3-5-6-11 (30 ran-soft)
2004: 33-29-31-18 (32 ran-good)
2003: 19-8-5-12 (24 ran-good to firm)
Record of course winners in the Cambridgeshire – none of the other five (juvenile) events have course winners involved on the Placepot card:
1/12—Master The World (good)
1/4—GM Hopkins (good)
1/3—Linguistic (good to soft)
2/2—Chelsea Lad (good to firm & good to soft)
2/2—Greenside (good to firm & soft)
1/2—Captain Cat (good to firm)
1/3—Secret Art (good to soft)
1/1—Red Tea (good)
4.10: Yet another (7/4) favourite got chinned on last year’s card but this renewal should be safely filed under the (secure Placepot call) file, with BYE BYE BABY and ALTYN ORDA having been declared. Personally, I am not too worried about the order in which the two market leaders finish, just as long as they secure a Placepot position or two between them. Safe for you to presume that I will not be getting involved from a win perspective. Lightening Quick let the Bye Bye Baby form down yesterday, though Aidan’s raider has already contested a Group race which augurs well for her chance in this grade/company I guess.
Favourite factor: All five favourites have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events thus far.
4.45: Seven winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 9-1 though that said, the other trio of gold medallists heaved 9-7 to winning effect. Richard Fahey is the only trainer to have a saddled two winners of this race during the last decade (within seven years in fact), whereby the chance for his consistent juvenile CLUBBABLE is there for all to see, from a Placepot perspective at least off 8-9. Richard complicates matters having also declared EXHORT, whilst TIME CHANGE is offered as a win and place option for you to consider.
Favourite factor: The previous four market leaders had finished out of the frame since the last favourite scored, though last year’s 5/2 market leader at least secured a Placepot position.
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Saturday – Their relevant number of winners (where applicable) on the corresponding day at Newmarket during the last five years are offered in brackets:
6 runners—Aidan O’Brien (1)
5—Andrew Balding (1)
5—Richard Fahey (2)
5—William Haggas (1)
4—John Gosden (3)
3—Mark Johnston (4)
3—Roger Varian (2)
2—Charlie Hills (1)
2—David O’Meara (1)
2—Sir Michael Stoute
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3)
+ 42 trainers with one entry on the card
108 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chester: £95.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 4 unplaced
Haydock: £41.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Market Rasen: £50.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Ripon: £987.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced
Chelmsford: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar