KEMPTON – MARCH 31
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £190.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 88.8% units went through – 6/4* & 2/1
Race 2: 76.3% of the remaining units when through – 7/4* & 2/1
Race 3: 39.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 13/2 (7/2)
Race 4: 15.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 8/1 & 14/1 (7/4)
Race 5: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 3/1 (5/2)
Race 6: 31.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 (Win only – 2/1* unplaced)
*It’s worth noting that after two legs, the ‘pot was only worth £1.47 (after deductions) albeit successful investors were certainly happy enough by the end of play! If you include the odd speculative selection, you are rarely far away from a decent return.
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 2 (Tigre Du Terre)
Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Autocratic) & 2 (Dommersen)
Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Qaysar), 6 (Pivotal Man) & 1 (Plunger)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Time To Blossom), 4 (Warm Oasis) & 5 (Stanley)
Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Arab Moon), 14 (Kelly’s Dino) & 6 (Contrast)
Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Solar Flare) & 6 (Sparkalot)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: There is precious little between CROSSED BATON and TUGRE DU TERRE on the exchanges at the time of writing, the two horses vying for favouritism at around the 13/8 mark. The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that the lads and lasses in the trade press office had the latter named raider as a 4/5 chance overnight. In the absence of any interest in the other eight contenders (the pick of which should prove to be Caspar The Cub), this pair will see us safely through to the second leg, likely as not.
Favourite factor: Easter generally causes mass confusion because of the different weeks that that dates fall on year on year. The Easter meeting was held on April 15 last year which is a good example of what I am trying to say. Different races have been split between the first two meetings around this time of year down the years whereby I am not offering favourite today because of the ‘confusion’. The Placepot dividend and breakdown of the figures is that of Easter Saturday last year (April 15), some of the races which were included on today’s card – and some not! This is one of the problems that so many meetings staged at an A/W venue can cause.
2.35: Although Sir Michael Stoute has a far better (percentage) record at other all weather tracks (particular those at Chelmsford, Newcastle and Lingfield), his entry AUTOCRATIC might prove too strong for FABRICATE at this stage of the season, whilst course winner DOMMERSEN cannot be entirely overlooked, especially at around the 7/1 mark this morning.
Record of the two course winners in the second race:
3.10: Although a strong overnight favourite, QAYSAR is relatively easy to back on the exchanges in the dead of night, edging towards 6/5 at the time of writing, having been quoted as a likely 8/11 chance by the trade press. Fellow course winner PLUNGER and PIVOTAL MAN are standing strong against the market leader, with Emblazoned lacking support as dawn begins to break over Bristol, lighting up yet another wet start to the day.
Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:
3.45: After a blank score-sheet in February via seven runners, Simon Crisford boasts a 25% strike rate this month via two winners and TIME TO BLOSSOM could improve the ratio in this grade/company this afternoon. A winner on his only start at the Sunbury venue, Simon’s dual beaten favourite in his last two races should repay the patience of connections and punters alike. WARM OASIS and STANLEY are nominated as the main threats at the business end of proceedings.
Record of the five course winners in the field:
1/1—Time To Blossom
4.20: The positive course stats relating to ARAB MOON confirms my interest in William Knight’s four-year-old which was initially ignited by plenty of realistic money piling up on the Elnadim gelding in the positive exchange earlier this morning. The dangers include KELLY’S DINO and CONTRAST. With seven course winners in the contest, this race is likely to end many a Placepot interest, even if the first four contests on the card have gone to plan.
Record of the eight course winners in the fifth event:
4.55: Simon Dow has been going great guns of late and with SPARKALOT offering outstanding course statistics here, Simon’s celebrations could be extended over the course of the weekend. That said, the 8/1 quotes in a place or two about SOLAR FLAIR make for interesting reading. Beaten less than two lengths in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood the last day, William Knight’s six-year-old would surely go close if anywhere near cherry ripe after a long winter break.
Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:
Record of the course winner in the seventh Kempton (non Placepot) at 5.30:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.