SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £146.80 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Countister) & 2 (Ainchea)
Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Gino Trail) & 4 (Cepage)
Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Buveur D’Air)
Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Cyrname), 5 (Terrefort), 2 (Kalondra) & 4 (West Approach)
Leg 5 (3.00): 9 (Melrose Boy), 15 (Dashing Perk), 4 (Topofthegame) & 14 (King Of Fashion)
Leg 6 (3.35): 11 (Shanroe Santos). 8 (Holly Bush Henry), 1 (Yala Enki) & 9 (Wicked Willy)
Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Nicky Henderson will want to seek compensation for the defeat of Rather Be in this event twelve months ago. Nicky has declared his Doncaster winner COUNTISTER who won on soft ground in France on two occasions before crossing the English Channel. Colin Tizzard’s Flemensfirth gelding AINCHEA looks the obvious danger in a race which could provide a few clues for better races in the spring.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Nicky Henderson trained) 4/5 market leader was beaten by the 7/4 second favourite (Alan King) when claiming a Placepot position.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Ainchea (good to soft)
1.15: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, whilst eight of the eleven winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 11-5. As was the case twelve months ago, seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence again this time around. Kerry Lee is well represented in a race which she won last year, with GINO TRAIL preferred to TOM GAMBLE on this occasion. GINO TRAIL failed to find another gear to cope with Speredek over course and distance the last day, though there was no disgrace in finishing second to that useful performer under heavy conditions. CEPAGE could split Kerry’s pair here, with the Venetia William’s raider lurking in the ‘superior’ sector of the weight according to the trends.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via eleven renewals during which time, six market leaders having finished in the frame.
1.50: Nicky Henderson (saddles last year’s winner BUVEUR D’AIR) has won four of the last six renewals of this event when represented and the champion hurdler should have no problem winning his thirteenth race on his sixteenth assignment. Bookmakers will be betting on the distance – my guess for the record: 12 lengths. John Constable will fill the runner up berth at a respectable distance accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six of the last nine favourites have won, whilst eight market leaders during the last 13 years have secured totplacepot positions.
Record of course winner in the field in the third contest on the card:
2.25: Seven-year-old’s (not represented last year) have won five of the last ten renewals of the ‘Scilly Isles’ novice event, as have seven of the last 14 gold medallists. KALONDRA is much preferred to No Comment of the pair of seven-year-olds though Noel Fehily’s mount might have to give way close home to the likes of CYRNAME and TERREFORT whose respective trainers Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson go head to head again in a feature contest. WEST APPROACH is not entirely dismissed at the time of writing, fearful that a non runner might raise its ugly head before flag fall, creating a ‘win only’ contest which would put the cat among the pigeons and no mistake.
Favourite factor: The last 19 winners all scored at odds of 10/1 or less, with ten winning favourites having been recorded in the process. 17 of the 19 winners scored at a maximum price of 9/2, whilst 12 market leaders have secured Placepot positions. Eight of the last eleven market leaders have obliged.
3.00: Nine of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12, whilst Paul Nicholls (TOPOFTHEGAME) has saddled three of the last eight winners. Paul’s six-year-old has to be included in the Placepot equation from my viewpoint, albeit he might represent poor value for money from a win perspective given that he is taking on the weight trends. That said, MELROSE BOY is also carrying plenty of pounds and ounces, though Harry Fry has a habit of annoying the handicapper with his improving young horses. Each way alternative options from lower down the handicap include DASHING PERK and KING OF FASHION.
Favourite factor: Four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4) winners.
Record of course winners in the field in the fifth event:
1/1—Golan Fortune (good to soft)
3.30: 13 of the last 16 winners have carried a maximum weight of 11-4, whilst Lucy Wadham (has won with the last two runners she has saddled in the contest) has declared SHANROE SHANROE. Lucy’s course and distance winner is included in my Placepot mix alongside YALA ENKI, HOLLY BUSH HENRY and WICKED WILLY. The latter named raider is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies whose last twenty horses have been beaten which is something of a worry, whilst YALA ENKI is a horse I have (seemingly) failed to call right every time the Venetia Williams trained raider has run. That said, Venetia has won two of the last four renewals of this event whereby we live in hope.
Favourite factor: Four of the last ten market leaders have won (first favourites to oblige since 1998), whilst eight of the market leaders during the study period have finished in the frame.
Record of course winners in the field in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Bishops Road (heavy)
2/10—Loose Chips (good)
1/1—Holly Bush Henry (good to soft)
1/2—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)
2/6—Vino Griego (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and for the last five years + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
5 winners—Nicky Henderson(3/10 – loss of 2 points) – 34/129 +13
5—Kerry Lee (0/2) – 3/14 +1
5—Paul Nicholls (2/18 – loss of 10) – 26/174 loss of 22
4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 5) – 3.46 – loss of 36
4—Evan Williams (1/5 +8) – 1/34 – loss of 21)
3—Phil Middleton (0/3) – 4/9 +17
3—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 2/22 – slight loss
3—Gary Moore (1/13 – loss of 7) – 22/104 +79
2—David Dennis (First runners at Sandown this season) – 0/9
2—Charlie Longsdon (1/9 +17) – 5/54 +8
2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/6) – 2/51 – loss of 43
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/8 +10) – 7/50 - +21
2—Venetia Williams (1/3 – slight profit) – 9/93 – loss of 51
+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
57 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: £459.00 (6 favourites- 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Wetherby: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield: £296.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton: Essentially this is a new meeting