WETHERBY – NOVEMBER 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £1,022.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby:
Leg 1 (12.20): 3 (Dalgany Demon), 4 (Krackatoa King) & 9 (Purcell’s Bridge)
Leg 2 (12.55): 2 (Al Shahir) & 1 (Kalashnikov)
Leg 3 (1.30): 4 (The Nipper) & 1 (Born Survivor)
Leg 4 (2.05): 1 (La Bague Au Roi) & 6 (Lady Buttons)
Leg 5 (2.40): 2 (Wholestone), 6 (Ptit Zig) & 7 (Colin’s Sister)
Leg 6 (3.15): 7 (Coneygree), 3 (Definitly Red) & 6 (Blacklion)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: Seven of the ten renewals in recent times have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden of 11 stones, statistics which point me in the general direction of the likes of DALGANY DEMON, KRACKATOA KING and PURCELL’S BRIDGE. The latter named Rose Dobbin representative will have benefitted from any overnight rain (looks to have been the case via a radar reading during the dead of night), whilst noting that Rose’s ten-year-old raider has attracted some support on the exchanges. The claiming pilot could take the weight into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap but then again, what is 16 ounces between friends? Daklondike receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Only four of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame during the last twelve years (via ten renewals). The statistics include three (11/4, 7/4 & 11/8) winners, whilst the last nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.
Record of the course winners in the opening race:
1/6—Purcell’s Bridge (good soft)
1/6—Basford Ben (good to soft)
12.55: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen renewals (including seven of the last thirteen) whilst five-year-olds have notched eight victories in 'recent' times, with vintage representatives coming here on a five timer on this occasion. Five-year-old AL SHAHIR is marginally preferred to four-year-old KALASHNIKOV this time around. Overnight support is beginning to take shape for this pair over Ballymoy at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 11/1 (seven years ago). 14 of the 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the extended study period.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1--Kalashnikov (god to soft)
1.35: It would be oh so easy for yours truly to insult your permutation limits by simply including all four runners here, enabling us to get through to the second half of the wager, had we been successful in the earlier races. That would be wrong, whereby I am opting for the two principles in the betting market, without wishing to disregard the other pair if your bank balance is in a healthy state this morning. For the record, THE NIPPER is marginally preferred to BORN SURVIVOR. My main concern is how do I just justify (to myself) to include the other two talented horse in the perm? If I did so, I would cheering them on because they will attract less units that the ‘principles’ which would be wrong because I’m firmly our camp (not just my own) in trying to win dividends for all concerned. The justification implores yours truly to offer just two selections accordingly.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wetherby card
Record of the course winner in the third event:
1/1—Born Survivor (soft)
2.05: It looks as though that LADY BUTTONS might have conditions to suit her over Miss Night Owl, though whether either of them will cope with soft ground course winner LA BAGUE AU ROI is another matter entirely. Miss Night Owl has (winning) seasonal advantage over the other pair and if Wetherby has swerved the worst of the rain I would definitely include the Tom George raider in the Placepot equation, which you should take into account when looking at ground conditions later this morning. If the wet stuff has got into the ground however, I would prefer the ‘selected’ pair accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions (four winners) via ten renewals to date. The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, eight of which were sent off at odds of 7/2 or less.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1—La Bague Au Roi (soft)
2/4—Lady Buttons (good to soft & heavy)
2.40: Although I obviously offer respect to Lil Rockerfeller here, Neil King’s raider looks vulnerable at the quoted odds of 5/4 from my viewpoint. I would imagine we might have to dip into the Doomsday Book to find the last time that Paul Nicholls only saddled one runner on this (Charlie Hall) card but that is the scenario this time around, with PTIT ZIG carrying the hopes of the Ditcheat team at Wetherby today. It’s worth noting that Paul has won this event on the last three occasions when the yard has been represented. WHOLESTONE is looking to make amends for the Twiston-Davies team which saddled the fallen favourite Ballyoptic in the race last year and they have found an ideal contender for such a task. Then there is the mare COLIN’S SISTER to take into account at around the 16/1 mark, with Fergal O’Brien’s six-year-old very much in the mix from my viewpoint despite what the trade media commentator suggests this morning. 16/1 on easy ground would attract my win and place cash, should that going scenario be confirmed later this morning.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven renewals have been secured by favourites, whilst fifteen of the last sixteen gold medallists were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.
3.15: CUE CARD and CONEYGREE offer fascinating rivalry here, a ‘match’ which people expected to witness last year, though the clash loses nothing for the twelve months that have passed. That said, both horses ultimately will not have to serve their very best form up until March (possibly next month as well I guess if they take in Kempton on Boxing Day), whereas this will be the main event all season in all probability for the likes of DEFINITLY RED and the Twiston-Davies pair BLACKLION (fourth here last year) and BRISTOL DE MAI. This trio would have to offer personal best efforts just to become involved in the finish however, whilst I can’t fancy any of the other contenders (Vieux De Lion the pick perhaps) in the field at this level. CUE CARD won this event two years ago before finding Irish Cavalier and Menorah too fit for him to handle when snaring the bronze prize twelve months ago. If more rain than is forecast falls, the ‘courage’ of BLACKLION would have to be taken into account. If not, CONEYGREE is arguably the call in a truly fascinating renewal of the first major prize of the season. From a value for money perspective, I am leaving Cue Card out of the mix! Sheer madness or a perceptive call?
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last seventeen years. Twelve of the eighteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.
Record of course winners in the ‘Charlie Hall’ (surely one of the best Placepot finales of all time!):
1/2—Cue Card (soft)
1/2—Definitly Red (good to soft)
1/1—Village Vic (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card (two or more) on Saturday with their number of winners (where relevant) at this corresponding (Charlie Hall) fixture during the last five years:
5 runners—Brian Ellison
4—Dan Skelton (1 winner)
3—Tom George (1)
3—Warren Greatrex (2)
3—Neil King (1)
3—Colin Tizzard (2)
2—Philip Hobbs (2)
1—Paul Nicholls (6)
+ 20 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
70 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newmarket: £143.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Ascot: £1,230.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Ayr: £145.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Newcastle: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar