GOODWOOD – AUGUST 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £93.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood:
Leg 1 (1.50): 8 (Rasheeq), 3 (The Wagon Wheel), 17 (Scorching Heat) & 13 (Pettochside)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Platitude), 4 (Mainstream) & 6 (Sir Chauvelin)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Mount Moriah) & 2 (Crystal Ocean)
Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Donhaun Triumphant), 7 (Projection), 10 (Raucous), 26 (Sir Dancealot) & 14 (Polybius)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Bathsheba Bay) & 10 (Rogue)
Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Taamol) & 2 (Medahim)
Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: A few things to muse over for starters today. I believe it was a mistake to move the ‘Nassau Stakes’ to a midweek slot, with several leading trainers seemingly agreeing as they ‘boycott’ the meeting today. Yes, the ground played its part in that, but John Gosden, Aiden O’Brien and many others are missing which takes the gloss of the final day of the fixture from my perspective. I must also mention the name David Nicholls (sorely missed as a character), especially with Dandy having snared eight of the eighteen winners of this event down the years. Upwards and onward by informing that nine of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5 and I offer a ‘short list’ of RASHEEQ, THE WAGON WHEEL, PETTOCHSIDE and SCORCHING HEAT accordingly. The each way chance for Gin In The Inn is also there for all to see but sitting one pound above the ‘superior’ weight barrier and with Ryan Moore booked to ride, Richard Fahey’s will probably fail to represent value for money.
Favourite factor: Just three of the last fifteen favourites have finished in the frame (no winners) since four consecutive market leaders obliged between 2000 and 2003.
Record of course winners in the opening contest:
1/1—Son Of Africa (good to firm)
3/11—Pettochside (2 x soft & good to soft)
2.25: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 6-5 via the last 13 renewals of this event, whilst horses carrying a minimum weight of 9-2 have held the call of late the call of late, with seven runners eliminated from the foot of the handicap this time around. I offer a little note of caution regarding the weight trends on this occasion however because of the continued soft ground conditions. That said, I am a self-confessed ‘anorak’ down to my bones whereby I will adhere to my beliefs, offering up the likes of PLATUTUDE, MAINSTREAM and SIR CHAUVELIN to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager, if we successfully won through the first heat.
Favourite factor: 10 of the 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners) during the last 16 years.
Record of course winners in the second race:
1/2—Soldier In Action (good)
1/2—Platitude (good to firm)
1/4—Arch Villain (good to soft)
1/1—Getback In Paris (good to soft)
3.00: Sir Michael Stoute boasts nine victories down the years (Electric was his first winner back in 1982 with Greville Starkey in the plate) and many punters will latch onto the chance of CRYSTAL OCEAN who is closely matched with KHALIDI on recent Royal Ascot form. There is no disputing the fact that this pair will go close, though value for money could lie with the Ralph Beckett’s raider MOUNT MORIA who comes to the gig on a four timer. Yes, we are talking about recent handicap victories compared to this Group 3 event but the conditions will be a great leveller today and very much proven on the ground, 5/1 is an extremely reasonable price about the Mount Nelson gelding.
Favourite factor: Market leaders of one description or another have won five of the last ten renewals of the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, whilst the last twelve gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 7/1.
Record of course winners in the Gordon Stakes:
2/2—Khalidi (2 x good)
3.35: 14 of the last 21 winners of the Stewards Cup have contested Royal Ascot’s Wokingham Stakes en route to lifting this prize, whist 15 gold medallists during the period hailed from the four and five-year-old ranks (four-year-olds have won six times during the last thirteen years). Seven of the last twelve winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1. Taking all the stats and facts into account, my extended ‘short list’ consists of DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT, PROJECTION, RAUCOUS and POLYBIUS. That said, I would not want to put you off the likes of BRIAN THE SNAIL and SIR DANCELOT who also assisted in the art of ‘head scratching’ during the early hours.
Favourite factor: Twelve of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured toteplacepot positions which is a phenomenal record in such a competitive event. Those stats include five successful favourites which equates to market leaders having produced a level stake profit of seventeen points during the last fourteen years.
Record of course winners in the Stewards’ Cup:
1/4—Duke Of Firenze (good)
2/4—Hoof It (2 x good to firm)
1/4—Go Far (good)
4.10: 'Team Hannon' has secured four of the last fourteen renewals, statistics which include three of the last ten contests. Richard saddles BATHSHEBA BAY and ROGUE this time around and from a Placepot perspective, I am happy to leave it to the stable companions to represent yours truly in the penultimate leg, given that I have used up plenty of options in earlier races. That said, DEE EX BEE is the subject of good reports and if you have room in your permutation to add Mark’s late May foal, I would understand the manoeuvre.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions whilst four market leaders prevailed.
4.45: Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-9 which eliminates all but two of the runners and given that I have just two options for my permutation, TAAMOL and MEDAHIM are duly elected to use a political phrase. The latter named raider represents Richard Hannon who has very selective in this runners here at Goodwood since the weather went ‘belly up’ earlier in the week. The fact that he takes on the favourite TAAMOL suggests that Richard believes that the Kodiac colt can make a race of it at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite during the (19 year) study period, whilst 10 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions since I started researching the contest.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Colonel Frank (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Represented winning trainers at Goodwood this week with their relevant number of runners on Saturday:
2 winners—Andrew Balding (20/1 & 7/4*) – 3 runners at Goodwood today
2 winners—Richard Hannon (7/1 & 10/3*) – 3 runners
2 winners—Charlie Hills (11/2 & 9/2) – 1 runner
2 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1 & 9/1) – 5 runners
2 winners—David Simcock (50/1 & 8/1) – 1 runner
2 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (7/4* twice) – 5 runners
1 winner—Karl Burke (7/2) – 1 runner
1 winner—David Elsworth (6/1) – 1 runner
1 winner—John Gosden (6/1) – 1 runner
1 winner—Gary Moore (100/1) – 2 runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £811.00 – 6 favourites- 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Hamilton: £78.90 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £35.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Newmarket: £521.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Thirsk: £19.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced