NEWBURY – MARCH 5
Friday's results not included into the mix where relevant.
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £83.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner--4 placed--1 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £623.71
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £903.94
Average Newbury Placepot dividend in 2016: £601.30 (1 meeting)
Favourite records at Newbury in 2016:
7 races - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced (exact science)
Odds on ratio: 0/2
Quick stat: Despite Newbury being Nicky Henderson's local track, his runners have a far better record at Doncaster relating to the corresponding meetings on Saturday during a five year study period. Away from Newbury, Alan King has a fine record at Town Moor this season whereby his five entries on Town Moor should be taken seriously.
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.45): 4 (Flementime), 2 (Rock Gone) & 7 (Howaboutnever)
Leg 2 (2.15): 4 (Masters Hill), 6 (Shuil Royale) & 11 (So Fine)
Leg 3 (2.50): 3 (Boite), 8 (Gabrial The Great) & 5 (Saint Charles)
Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Art Mauresque) & 12 (Ultragold)
Leg 5 (4.00): 7 (Ikrapol) & 2 (Muthbir)
Leg 6 (4.35): 3 (Hughesie) & 2 (Royal Guardsman)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
1.45: Roger Teal has his team in good form and it looks as though the trainer is taking this chance seriously as Roger has employed his seven pound claimer to take the ride aboard HOWABOUTNEVER. This is a tough opening heat however, taking the declarations of FLEMENTINE, SPICE FAIR and ROCK GONE into account.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 5/1 favourite secured a Placepot position by claiming the bronze medal behind horses returned at 8/1 and 7/1.
2.15: There is definitely a place for these ‘speciality’ races in the calendar in my opinion, especially at a course like Newbury when so many memories of great races fill the memory bank. A few years ago the race for grey horses was instigated on the level, and here we a have a ‘veterans only’ event. Why shouldn’t we offer these fine old warriors another chance of visiting the winners enclosure before they are sent out to the paddocks? It's worth noting that ten-year-olds have won six of the seven contests to date (barely into middle age) and vintage representatives MASTERS HILL, SO FINE and (possibly) SAME DIFFERENCE look to have a decent chances in this grade/company. Ten-year-olds filled the frame twelve months ago, albeit via two thirds of the total number of runners. Strangely enough, vintage representatives accounted for less than 39% of the four day declarations. SHUIL ROYALE is an interesting each way alternative option if the ten-year-olds are to denied.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites (a medal of each colour) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
Newbury record of course winners in the second event:
1/2--Pete The Feat (C&D winner)
2.50: Six-year-olds have secured six of the last 11 contests, with a 16/1 vintage representative beaten by only a neck two years when trying to improve the ratio further still. Vintage representatives are 7/4 to extend the recent trend before the form book in taken into consideration and with Warren Greatrex boasting such great stats at the venue this year (5/11 - see full stats below), BOITE could outrun his odds here, despite the Authorized representative having been off the racecourse for over seven months. Gavin Sheehan has a chance of beating last year's (best) total of 73 winners and the pilot will be pushing and shoving for all he is worth. GALA BALL and SAINT CHARLES are the other vintage raiders to consider, arguably alongside GABRIAL THE GREAT.
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and two joint favourites have prevailed via the last 14 renewals. Eight of the 16 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
3.25: Paul Nicholls has snared seven gold medals and three of the silver variety via the last 10 renewals of this event via just 20 runners. Paul held two options at the penultimate stage and the trainer has offered the green light to both ART MAURESQUE and SAMTEGAL on this occasion. The two horses are listed in order of preference at the overnight stage. Eight-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals whereby the chances of LITTLE JON and ULTRAGOLD are also respected.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders that failed to win (alongside five successful favourites) finished out of the frame.
Newbury record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2--Little Jon (C&D winner)
4.00: Nine of the last 11 winners have carried 11-2 or more, statistics which eliminate the bottom pair in the handicap if you take the stats seriously. IKRAPOL has less than nine miles on his racing clock and though he will prove to be a better horse when learning to settle, David Pipe's four-year-old has time on his time. MUTHABIR and BINGO D'OLIVATE are others with Placepot claims in a race I would avoid from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 16 years, though winning favourites had been conspicuous by their absence before the 13/8 market leader obliged in 2012. Winners at 25/1--20/1--14/1 have been recorded in the last 11 years, whilst horses filled the frame at 25/1—33/1—50/1—20/1 back in 2004. The relevant Tricast dividend was declared in excess of thirty-three thousand pounds!
4.35: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1 which eliminates the bottom three horses in this 10 runner toteplacepot finale. The pick of the remaining seven runners will hopefully prove to be HUGHESIE and ALLOW DALLOW. ROYAL GUARDSMAN won the third race on last year's card and Ali Stronge's nine-year-old is also a potential player from my perspective.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 11 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
Newbury record of course winners in the sixth event:
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday:
6--Evan Williams (Newbury stats this season (not updated after Friday's results: 1/6)
5--Charlie Longsdon (0/5)
5--David Pipe (1/20)
3--Brian Ellison (0/1)
3--Tom George (0/6)
3--Warren Greatrex (5/11)
3--Philip Hobbs (2/19)
3--Alan King (1/18)
3--Fergal O'Brien (0/2)
3--Henry Oliver (0/2)
3--Jonjo O'Neill (1/12)
3--Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/15)
3--Venetia Williams (1/10)
2--Kim Bailey (0/3)
2--Emmanuel Clayeux (--)
2--Harry Fry (2/9)
2--Nicky Henderson (3/19)
2--Martin Keighley (0/1)
2--Dr Richard Newland (--)
2--Paul Nicholls (2/19)
2--Richard Phillips (0/1)
2--Diane Sayer (--)
2--Colin Tizzard (2/12)
+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
82 declared runners