SANDOWN - JANUARY 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £47.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Echo Watt) & 5 (Mister Chow)
Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Angels Antics), 3 (Hitherjaques Lady) & 4 (Midnight Jazz)
Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Theo’s Charm), 6 (Bekkensfirth) & 11 (Amber Gambler)
Leg 4 (1.50): 2 (Gino Trail), 1 (Overturn Express) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)
Leg 5 (2.25): 5 (Western Ryder) & 2 (Mont Des Avaloirs)
Leg 6 (3.00): 13 (Cloudy Too), 1 (Perfect Candidate), 4 (Double Ross) & 9 (Benbens)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.15: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 8/1 or less, the previous gold medallist having scored on the behalf of the majority of bookmakers at 50/1. The race is ‘marred’ by the inclusion of WE HAVE A DREAM who is seemingly bound elsewhere (Chepstow). This causes chaos in attempting to get the Placepot scenario right in the first leg, especially writing this column in the dead of night when nothing is 100% certain. If I leave Nicky’s horse out and he runs and wins as it should do, I’m in deep trouble. If I opt for the likely second favourite ECHO WATT and Richard Hobson’s raider misses out having has thousands of units transferred onto him via Nicky’s potential ‘defector’, things will be just as bleak. I have therefore added MISTER CHOW into the mix, leaving We Have A Dream out of the equation. Here’s hoping…
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners. That said, odds on chances were turned over from a win perspective at 1/3 (twice) and 10/11 during the period.
12.45: A desperately difficult event to assess, given that the eventual decision will be made via a process of elimination, rather than horses standing out from the crowd. Philip Hobbs (Poppy Kay) has only saddled two winners via 48 runners since the end of November, whilst Dusky Legend reverts back to timber after a nasty fall the last day. I’m opting for the other three entries from a value for money perspective, listing ANGELS ANTICS, HITHERJACQUES LADY and MIDNIGHT JAZZ in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners. Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, the other gold medallist having been returned at 9/2.
1.20: THEOS CHARM was ‘knocked over’ rather than having fallen the last day and Nick Gifford has found a half decent race to find compensation, should Leighton Aspell’s mount enjoy better luck in running on ground that will not cause connections too much distress. BEKKENSFIRTH looks a typically well placed Skelton representative, whilst my alternative each way call AMBLER GAMBLER completes my trio against the remaining eight declarations.
Favourite factor: The inaugural (David Pipe trained) 10/3 favourite finished last of the six finishers three years ago, whilst the 11/4 market leader occupied the same position via nine runners twelve months later. Last year’s 7/2 market leader thankfully prevailed for the majority of punters.
1.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals yet trainers have ignored the ‘edge’ on this occasion. Another corker of a Sandown event which leads to so many fine Placepot dividends, purely because of the ‘make up’ of races at this venue. That said, the wheels would come of if a non runner was to rear its ugly head prior to flag fall but remaining positive, I’m expecting GINO TRAIL, OVERTOWN EXPRESS and ROCK ON ROCKY to get us through towards the promised land of another good dividend.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race on the card:
1/2—Rock On Rocky (good to soft)
2/4—Pearls Legend (good to soft & soft)
2.25: Paul Nicholls runs just the one horse on the card whereby the chance of MONT DES AVALOIS demands respect, especially as the second of his two victories to date was gained on this type of ground at Aintree the last day. That said, WESTERN RYDER looks the type that needs to be followed until beaten again, with Richard Johnson thirsting for winners given the Philip Hobbs stat offered earlier on the card. By comparison, Warren Greatrex saddled nine winners during the course of December and WESTERN RYDER can continue the good run on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners via ten renewals during the last eleven years.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/1—Sussex Ranger (good to soft)
3.00: These events for veterans remain as popular as ever and at least three selections are required to ensure we secure the Placepot dividend if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager. My ‘short list’ consists of CLOUDY TOO, PERFECT CANDIDATE and DOUBLE ROSS. Sue (and Harvey) Smith are not in the habit of wasting expenses whereby the soft/heavy ground was vital for CLOUDY TOO to take his chance and his 4/7 record on heavy going ensures that the twelve-year-old was the first name on the team sheet. The reserve nomination is awarded to BENBENS.
Favourite factor: One of the two 7/1 joint favourites won the inaugural contest, though search parties were still out looking for the other beaten market leader several weeks later. Last year’s 5/1 market leader was similarly lost without trace.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/4—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)
1/2—No Duffer (good to soft)
2/9—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)
1/3—Benbens (good to soft)
2/6—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)
2/5—Vino Grigio (good & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/5 +21)
4—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 4 points)
4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/4 +14)
3—Nigel Hawke (0/1)
3—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)
2—Tom George (0/1)
2—Nicky Henderson (2/9 – loss of 5 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (0/5)
2—Kerry Lee (First runners at Sandown this season)
2—Ben Pauling (1/4 +5)
2—Dan Skelton (1/10 – loss of 5 points)
2—Sue Smith (First runners at Sandown this season)
2—Ian Williams (0/2)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £11.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Wincanton: £393.80 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced
Lingfield: £43.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £57.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced