KELSO – APRIL 7
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £77.50 (8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 45.5% units went through – 2/1** & 5/1 (2/1**)
Race 2: 57.4% of the remaining units when through – 10/3, 3/1* & 10/1
Race 3: 60.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 & 2/1*
Race 4: 23.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 (2/1)
Race 5: 51.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 7/2
Race 6: 49.5% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2**, 4/1 & 6/1 (7/2**)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kelso:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Teddy Tee), 3 (Just Georgie), 2 (Hills Of Dubai) & 4 (Acdc)
Leg 2 (2.25): 9 (Treshnish), 6 (Taxmeifyoucan) & 8 (Gassin Golf)
Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Yala Enki) & 5 (Seldom Inn)
Leg 4 (3.35): 9 (Landecker), 1 (Donna’s Diamond) & 5 (Taking Risks)
Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Vengeur De Guye) & 2 (Bobbies Diamond)
Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Graystown) & 10 (Lastin Memories)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
1.50: In all honesty, I only chose Kelso today because ITV were hosting their programme from the Scottish venue because frankly speaking (a topical tip for the horse in the 4.15 at Uttoxeter?), this is a poor day of racing to end a wretched week. Upwards and onward however by suggesting that it is time to retire to the bar at the first time of asking, with all four runners holding realistic claims in this win only contest. Hoping for the horse with the least number of Placepot units at flag fall to prevail, I would nominate Teddy Tee as the tentative potential winner, though only if the proverbial gun was aimed at yours truly. Whichever horse prevails (likely as not), at least 60% of the Placepot units will be lost in this opening event, whereby a decent dividend can be expected at Kelso this afternoon.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Kelso today.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
2.25: TRESHNISH is the outsider to home on from my viewpoint with Sue Smith’s five-year-old looking to be on a handy mark in this grade/company. Mirsaale has it all to do as far as the weight trend is concerned as the last six winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-3. TAXMEIFYOU CAN and GASSIN GOLF are expected to offer most resistance to the win and place selection at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Although market leaders have won via seven renewals thus far, they were all returned as joint favourites. It’s worth noting that aside from the winners, the other seven jollies all finished out of the frame!
Record of the four course winners in the second contest on the card:
2/2—Mirsalle (good & soft)
1/1—Golden Jeffrey (good)
3.00: It would not surprise me if YALA ENKI and SELDOM INN dominated proceedings as the jockeys raise their whips, perhaps in a similar way in which the pair filled the forecast positions in the race last year, even though the trade press would have us believe that this is a new event on the card! YALA ENKI positively thrives in bad ground (as do so many of the Venetia Williams inmates) and it is very doubtful that the eight-year-old will fail to reach the frame, win lose or draw at around the 5/1 mark at the time of writing. If you ignored the last three efforts of WILD WEST WIND (failed to complete the course on each occasion) you could offer the Tom George raider a chance, though only if you were going to ‘watch’ the race from behind the sofa!
Record of the four course winners in the third race:
1/1—Yala Enki (heavy)
3/7—Seldom Inn (good – good to soft – heavy)
1/3—Samstown (good to soft)
1/7—Harry The Viking (good to soft)
3.35: As a five time winner here at Kelso (unsuccessful elsewhere), there will be worse outsiders on today’s card than LANDECKER I’ll wager, especially as the heavy ground should not inconvenience Nick Alexander’s ten-year-old representative. Connections of DONNA’S DIAMOND will be looking for compensation sooner rather than later having lost the supplementary fee for running in a race at the Cheltenham Festival the other week though that said, now many others in this event would have even been thought of in that regard? TAKINGRISKS completes my trio against the remaining seven contenders in a half decent contest.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have secured Placepot positions to date though that said, only one (5/2) market leader has actually won the event to date.
Record of the four course winners in the field:
2/3—Takingrisks (2 x heavy)
4/10—Total Assets (2 x good to soft – soft – heavy)
5/16—Landecker (2 x good to soft – 2 x soft – heavy)
4.10: Having gone ‘over the top’ in the first four races on the card, I am allowing myself just two Placepot chances here, the pin having dropped on VENGEUR DE GUYE and BOBBIES DIAMOND. The first named raider represents Lucinda Russell who has the best recent record at the corresponding meeting, whilst BOBBIES DIAMOND attracted overnight support which caught the eye at the thick end of a double digit price.
Favourite factor: Contrasting results from the two contests thus far as last year’s 11/8 favourite more than made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 5/2 market leader.
Record of the three course winners in the fifth event:
1/6—Vengeur De Guye (good to soft)
1/4—Oak Vintage (good)
4.45: GRAYSTOWN is the win and place call at 14/1 (Ladbrokes) this morning in a race which should not prove difficult to win, despite the declaration of hat trick seeker Haul Us In who does not represent value for money from my viewpoint. I prefer to nominate LASTIN MEMORIES as the danger to my each way play, despite Sandy Forster’s raider running from two pounds out of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date via four renewals, statistics which include two successful (9/2 & 7/2**) market leaders from a win perspective.
Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/4—Road To Gold (2 x heavy)
1/10—Another Mattie (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.