ASCOT - OCTOBER 7
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £110.10 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Waady) & 3 (Kyllang Rock)
Leg 2 (2.25): 9 (Waldgeist) & 5 (Great Hall)
Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Blue Point), 6 (Second Thought) & 1 (Magical Memory)
Leg 4 (3.35): 14 (Straight Right), 17 (Mikjack), 18 (Raising Sand), 16 (Amazour) & 9 (Makzeem)
Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Eternally) & 10 (One Master)
Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Shamshon), 2 (Lincoln) & 1 (Equimou)
Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: It’s difficult to look beyond WAADY for openers with John Gosden sending out consistent winners, having dominated this meeting in recent times. As a trainer who absolutely loves snaring winners at top venues, John will be anxious to make up for one lost in the Steward’s room yesterday and aside from KYLLANG ROCK and (possibly) Sir Robert Cheval (the only course winner in the line up), WAADY looks to have been found an ideal opportunity by the popular trainer. That said, money for KYLLANG ROCK would add interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: 15 of the last 16 winners have been returned at prices ranging between 9/2 and 33/1, with just one winning favourite recorded during the study period. Six of the last 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions which in a competitive races such as this, is a half decent record.
Record of course winner in the opening event:
1/7—Sir Robert Cheval (good)
2.25: Four-year-olds have won seven renewals of the 'Cumberland Lodge' during the last 12 years, though this year’s main hope MIDTERM is a tough cookie to call given his inconsistency, a word you don’t often associate with runners from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. Andre Fabre has successfully raided these shores far too consistently for my liking down the years and the trainer appears to have studied the form book well enough for WALDGEIST to represent the yard to winning effect. GREAT HALL who would be such a popular winner for Mick Quinn. Having won on both of his starts at this venue, the ground will be ideal, providing it does not dry out too much in the lead up to flag fall.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have won during the last 12 years alongside two joint favourites, whilst all 13 gold medallists have won at a top price of 5/1. 12 of the 16 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the ‘Cumberland Lodge’:
1/2—Secret Number (good to soft)
1/3—Danehill Kodiac (good to firm)
1/3—Arthenus (good to soft)
2/2—Great Hall (good to soft & soft)
3.00: Only a handful of three-year-olds have contested this event during the last seven years having secured four victories at 13/2, 6/1, 9/4 and 7/4, figures which are backed up by 20/1 and 8/1 silver medallists in two of the years when the vintage missed out from a win perspective. The two relevant vintage raiders least year snared gold and bronze medals when returned at 7/4* and 10/1. BLUE POINT is the obvious vintage representative to home in on given Charlie Appleby’s consistent form (recent ratio of 9/22) and bookmakers could be reeling by the time this race is finished if Waady and Waldgeist have ‘gone in’ before William Buick returns to the saddle to winning effect aboard the selection. Readers who like to be a little more speculative about their selections might home in on SECOND THOUGHT from an each way perspective at around the 10/1 mark this morning. MAGICAL MEMORY is the other potential winner of the race from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (two winner at 9/4 & 7/4) thus far.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/2—Blue Point (good to firm)
3.35: 12 of the 17 winners to date carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst four-year-olds have secured five of the last 11 contests. No horse in the field possesses ticks in both of the trend boxes this time around unfortunately, with MIJACK and RAISING SAND standing out from the crowd via their respective marks. That said, there is money for STRAIGHT RIGHT at the time of writing and with 12/1 quotes in places at the time of writing, I doubt those odds will be available by the time that shops open their doors later this morning. MAKZEEM is the only four-year-old in the field that makes any appeal. Any money for the outsider Amazour would be worth heeding from an each way perspective and there are certainly a lot worse 25/1 chances on the Ascot card today.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last 20 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders with favourites having won the last two contests at 11/2 & 9/2.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—Speculative Bid (good to firm)
2/3—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)
4.10: Three-year-olds have won 14/15 renewals of this race to date, and with 7/13 runners represented by vintage raiders this time around, the odds are around 5/6 for another three-year-old winner to score before the form book comes into play. However, that form book suggests that the declaration of last year’s winner ETERNALLY will make life tough for the juniors this time around. ONE MASTER is a speculative call given the nature of her Yarmouth victory, though William Haggas does not ‘tilt at windmills’ with representatives that have little to offer whereby his Fastnet Rock filly is taken to lead home the three-year-olds ahead of Irish raider XENOBIA. Plenty of support in the ring would bring James Tate’s Urban Fox into the equation.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged to date, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/1—Eternally (good to soft)
4.50: Racing off a five pound lower mark than when returned as the successful favourite last year, the Placepot chance (at the very least) for SHAMSHON is there for all to see, especially as the Stuart Williams raider won in July, albeit four subsequent efforts have failed to live up to that standard; hence the lower mark. LINCOLN and EQUIMOU are feared most though at 9/1 in a place, SHAMSHON would be the call from a win perspective. The reserve nomination is awarded to JUSTICE LADY.
Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have snared two gold medals and one of the bronze variety alongside Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday (their number of winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years are in brackets where applicable):
3 runners—Michael Appleby (1)
3—Andrew Balding (2)
3—Roger Charlton (1)
3—John Gosden (3)
3—David O’Meara (1)
2—David Elsworth (1)
2—Richard Fahey (2)
2—W T Farrell
2—Kevin Ryan (1)
+ 29 trainers with one entry
71 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newmarket: £75.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Redcar: £53.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Fontwell: £59.30 – 6 favourites & 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £48.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced