KEMPTON – JANUARY 9
12.15: Twelve months ago, I formed the wrong conclusion that Officer Drivel was probably too exposed to win this event and the mistake could be made with GOLDEN GATE BRIGHT this time around I'll wager. Mark Pitman's dual winner had no answers when upped in grade at Cheltenham last time out, but with only DIRECTIONAL having shown real ability among his four rivals, it might be Alan King's Excellent Art newcomer GILD MASTER that gives GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE most to do at the business end of proceedings. Alan's new hurdlers are often transferred from different stables but the trainer has saddled his four-year-old on all nine assignments thus far, with connections still waiting for a return on their investment from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Favourites came to the gig on a four timer twelve months ago before the run was ended, whilst all 10 winners during the last 11 years have won at odds of 11/2 or less.
12.50: COMEONGINGER boasts a good ratio around this quick circuit, though slower conditions are in place after all the rain. That will not worry connections of Chris Gordon's King's Theatre gelding whose last two victories were gained on soft ground. Balgarry was never really going at Newbury the other week and running off the same mark having been upped four pounds recently, I'm inclined to prefer the likes of THE CLOCK LEARY and STARKIE from the other end of the handicap on this occasion.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Kempton card.
Kempton record of course winners in the second race:
1.25: Proven heavy ground winners TAPACULO and WESTSTREET should figure prominently, though they are from being the only horses in the line-up whose connections will be able to sleep comfortably on Friday night. This pair might ultimately have too much class for Brod Na Heirann and The Boss's Dream however, with the Philip Hobbs top weight TAPACULO expected to shrug off the burden of (joint) top weight to winning effect. WHATAKNIGHT cannot be ruled out of the equation at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 joint favourites filled the forecast positions three year's ago before the last two (even money & 10/11) successful market leaders completed a clean sweep for jollies in this event thus far.
2.00: A disappointing turnout for a race with a guaranteed £30k prize money with just three runners having been declared. The terms and conditions of the contest suit WISHFUL THINKING, though the thirteen-year-old threw in the towel a little too early for my liking at Huntingdon last time out and he heads towards the last chance saloon from my viewpoint, for all that he has been a grand servant to Philip Hobbs and the team down the years. Nicky Henderson's Topham Trophy winner TROLO D'ALENE is being trained with another Grand National tilt in mind. The nine-year-old never really got into the big race last April before being pulled up before 'Bechers' on the second circuit, but it would be foolish to totally ignore this former Hennessy winner. That leaves PTIT ZIG as the probable winner, especially as the Paul Nicholls raider will not be inconvenienced by conditions.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged by 23 lengths before last year's ten length gold medallist justified favouritism at even money.
2.35: Six-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals of the 'Lanzarote' at odds of 20/1--9/1--8/1--9/2*--9/2** whilst seven of the eight winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less and I expect the trend to be continued via YALA ENKI, WESTREN WARRIOR and IBIS DU RHEU. The trio is listed very much in order of preference, especially as Venetia Williams (YALA ENKI) is seemingly the only trainer to have noticed the 'vintage edge' on this occasion. Five pound claimer Charlie Deutsch could land one of the biggest wins of his career aboard the six-year-old. If the vintage and weight trends are to be thwarted, Kempton specialist BROTHER TED looks the obvious choice.
Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three (7/4--9/2--9/2**) winners
Kempton record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:
3.10: All nine horses to have secured toteplacepot positions have carried a minimum burden of 11 stones, statistics which bring KRUZHLINEN, MASTERS HILL and LE REVE into my overnight mix. The first named pair make most appeal with Lucy Wagham's top weight (Le Reve) asked to carry 11-12 to victory in what might be desperate ground by the time the Placepot finale is contested. GRANDADS HORSE is another to consider over your late night tipple/early morning beverage.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had finished out with the washing via two renewals of the toteplacepot finale before last year's 10/3 market leader scraped into a Placepot position by finishing third in a nine runner contest.
Kempton record of course winners in the sixth race:
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the complete Kempton card on Saturday:
2--Dr Richard Newland
1--Anabel K Murphy
52 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends in recent years:
2015: £187.80 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
2014: £131.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
2013: £79.70 (7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
2012: £454.90 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
2011: £27.10 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £176.24
Favourite details in Placepot races:
32 favourites – 16 winners – 5 placed – 11 unplaced
Most successful trainers during the five year study period ay Kempton on Lanzarote Hurdle day (level stake profit to one pound):
9/32--Nicky Henderson (favourite record: 5/9) + £6.87
Two runners on Saturday
4/13--Philip Hobbs (favourite record: 3/3) + £4.45
Four runners on Saturday
The following two trainers have positive records but are not represented at Kempton on Saturday. The ratios have been left in the analysis for you to record for future use.
3/5--Nick Williams (favourite record: 1/1) + £15.00
3/9--Jonjo O’Neill (favourite record: 2/2) + £10.00