Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Saturday April 1

DONCASTER – APRIL 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £131.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Mobsta), 9 (Ride Like The Wind) & 5 (Captain Colby)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Nimr), 15 (Lord Of The Rock) & 1 (Ballet Concerto)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Castle Harbour), 8 (Stormy Antarctic) & 10 (Tullius)

Leg 4 (3.35): 21 (Dolphin Vista), 16 (Bravery), 8 (Zhui Feng) & 19 (Highland Colori)

Leg 5 (4.10): 10 (Rocket Man Dan) & 2 (Almane)

Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Move To The Front) & 10 (Hellovaqueen)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: The last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst only two favourites have prevailed via the last 13 contests.  Unfortunately, only the two bottom weights are eliminated from my enquiries via the relevant stats this time around though in last year’s winner MOBSTA, we surely have a half decent chance of securing a Placepot position at the very least.  A winner of two of his three races in April/May thus far, Mick Channon’s raider would create more interest if a shower or two fell on Town Moor this morning.  Trap 3 is not ideal looking at the facts (not opinion) below, whereby I will add two from the higher numbers to hopefully get us through this first leg, namely Kevin Ryan’s English debutant RIDE LIKE THE WIND and CAPTAIN COLBY who represents the in-form yard of Ed Walker.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst nine of the last twenty one market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Draw details for the last eleven renewals:

14-12-2 (13 ran-soft)

10-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-soft)

9-1-4 (8 ran-soft)

11-10-12 (14 ran-good)

5-7-14 (14 ran-good)

14-10-13 (13 ran-soft)

6-2-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

16-9-17 (15 ran-good to soft)

2-7-10 (11 ran-good)

16-17-12 (17 ran--good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the opening event:

2/7—Nameitwhatyoulike

1/1—Birchwood

1/1—Captain Colby

2/4—Mobsta

1/1--Scrutineer

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won 15 renewals during the last 19 years (including 12 of the last 15), whilst the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Six vintage representatives have been declared, though the weight trend is not a factor this time around unfortunately.  The pick of the four-year-olds will hopefully prove to be NIMR who is well drawn by the look of things, whilst the booking of Frankie Dettori catches the eye.  Last year’s winner LORD OF THE ROCK is offered up the each way alternative option, with BALLET CONCERTO completing my trio again the field.  The three nominations are drawn between stall numbers six and seventeen which in a 22 runner one mile event means that the pilots will be able to dictate the way they direct their horses from the stalls.

Favourite factor: The last 15 favourites that failed to win their respective events also failed to secure toteplacepot positions.  Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored during the last 13 years.

Draw details for the last eleven renewals:

4-19-20-18 (21 ran-soft)

8-1-18-21 (21 ran-good)

15-16-14-18 (22 ran-soft)

16-8-20-13 (18 ran-soft)

2-7-8-12 (22 ran-good)

16-19-22-10 (22-good)

19-10-12-18 (19 ran-soft)

9-11-2-20 (21 ran-good to soft)

17-1-2-21 (21 ran-good to soft)

12-8-7-20 (22 ran-good)

19-20-21-15 (24-good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the second race:

1/2—Mutarakez

1/2—Lord Of The Rock

 

3.00: CASTLE HARBOUR is the win and place call in an open renewal, even though it looks as if ‘Frankie’ has deserted John Gosden’s runner on this occasion.  Favourite to beat Ribchester on his third start following two impressive displays, CASTLE HARBOUR lost his way to a fashion, though his demolition of nineteen rivals on the Knavesmire on his second start remains locked in the memory bank. Connections might have most to fear from the likes of STORMY ANTARCTIC (also has Ribchester form) and course winner TULLIUS who represents Andrew Balding whose horses have been running well of late.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this Doncaster Mile event have changed around in recent years whereby the official stance now is that there are just four renewals to take into consideration with three of the five market leaders having secured a toteplacepot position (two winners).

Doncaster record of course winners in the third contest:

1/2--Tullius

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have claimed 21 of the last 56 available Placepot positions, statistics which include seven of the last fourteen winners.  15 of the last 18 winners have had a maximum of one run since the end of the previous flat season, whilst the last 12 winners have carried 9-4 or less.  Putting all those stats and facts in the deep fat fryer produces a short list of DOLPHIN VISTA, BRAVERY, ZHUI FENG and HIGHLAND COLORI.  DOLPHIN VISTA is trained by Richard Fahey who boasts the best recent record in the contest.  RIchard has saddled two winners and three placed horses during the last six years, albeit via twenty representatives in the Lincoln Handicap.  YUFTEN is added to the equation having earned the reserve nomination, though value for money is only conspicuous by its absence.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Lincoln Handicap in the last 18 years which is a thoroughly decent return in such a competitive event, though just two of the other 14 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

Effect of the draw during the last thirteen years:

22-2-18-21 (22 ran-soft)

15-6-19-12 (22 ran-good)

3-22-20-18 (17 ran-soft)

3-1-19-10 (22 ran-soft)

12-21-9-2 (22 ran-good)

16-19-6-15 (21 ran-good)

1-5-10-14 (21 ran-soft)

9-3-2-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-3-16-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-21-2-1 (22 ran-good)

23-16-12-24 (24 ran-good)

6-7-1-12 (24 ran-good)

7-6-13-12 (23 ran-good to soft)

Doncaster record of course winners in the Lincoln Handicap:

2/2—Gabrial

1/1—Oh This Is Us

1/3—Steel Train

1/1—Lucy The Painter

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2/5—George Cinq

1/8—Highland Colori

2/5—Withernsea

 

4.10: ROCKET MAN DAN and ALMANE are the only two runners for money at the time of writing and now and then, we simply have to take the view that if we have made it through the Lincoln Day quagmire this far, we should adopt the stance of laying off our bet via the place exchanges.  With this pair, we will have plenty of scope to at least get our stake money back providing of course, the first four races on the card have gone out way!

Favourite factor: Just nine of the 25 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years (three winners).

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

3-8-4 (10 ran-soft)

2-6-4 (9 ran-good)

2-6-8 (17 ran-soft)

13-4-15 (12 ran-soft)

10-1-9 (12 ran-good)

5-2-9 (12 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-soft)

14-11-21 (19 ran-good to firm)

19-14-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-18 (18 ran-good)

5-12-4 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12 (18 ran-good)

15-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

 

4.40: This is the second division of the ‘Brocklesby’ whereby a similar approach for the two-year-old event (as was the case in the first heat - previous race on the card) can be adopted.  However, Bill Turner has won the 'Brocklesby' five times in the last 15 years, whereby money for HELLOVAQUEEN would demand plenty of respect.  The other horse for laying off purposes appears to be MOVE TO THE FRONT, despite the experience gained by Jurisprudance on the continent recently.

Favourite factor: Just nine of the 25 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years (three winners).

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

3-8-4 (10 ran-soft)

2-6-4 (9 ran-good)

2-6-8 (17 ran-soft)

13-4-15 (12 ran-soft)

10-1-9 (12 ran-good)

5-2-9 (12 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-soft)

14-11-21 (19 ran-good to firm)

19-14-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-18 (18 ran-good)

5-12-4 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12 (18 ran-good)

15-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track in 2016 + profits/losses accrued:

14 runners—Richard Fahey (6/91 – loss of 44 points)

5—Karl Burke (3/29 – Profit of 41 points)

5—John Gosden (10/40 – Profit of 3 points)

5—Richard Hannon (4/52 – slight loss)

4—Declan Carroll (0/9)

4—Mick Easterby (4/20 – Profit of 12 points)

4—David Evans (1/11 – Profit of 15 points)

3—Alan Balding (2/17 – Profit of 11 points)

3—David O’Meara (7/59 – Slight profit)

3—Ed Walker (1/6 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Charlie Appleby (8/26 – Profit of 13 points)

2—Michael Bell (0/7)

2—Mick Channon (1/9 – Level profit/loss on the season)

2—Keith Dalgleish (1/14 – loss of 7 points)

2—Michael Dods (2/38 – loss of 6 points)

2—Tim Easterby (3/57 – loss of 24 points)

2—Robert Eddery (0/5)

2—Brian Ellison (2/33 – Loss of 24 points)

2—Roger Fell (1/3 – Profit of 31 points)

2—Ivan Furtado (0/11)

2—Jim Goldie (2/25 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Jo Hughes (0/1)

2—Kevin Ryan (1/38 – loss of 36 points)

2—Brian Meehan (0/12)

2—Rod Millman (0/3)

2—Stan Moore (0/1)

2—Jedd O‘Keeffe (4/14 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (8/20 – Profit of 20 points)

2—Roger Varian (8/29 – Profit of 13 points)

2—Stuart Williams (0/3)

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

127 declared runners

 

 

 

 

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