NEWBURY – APRIL 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £45.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.35): 15 (Wave Reviews), 14 (Tiercel) & 13 (Taqdeer)
Leg 2 (2.10): 7 (Sandro Boticelli) & 1 (Agent Murphy)
Leg 3 (2.40): 6 (Marenko), 7 (Nassuivian Pearl) & 10 (The Black Princess)
Leg 4 (3.15): 5 (Tasleet) & 1 (Crazy Horse)
Leg 5 (3.50): 13 (Master Of Irony), 11 (Sinfonnieta) & 16 (Rocco's Delight)
Leg 6 (4.25): 5 (Lord Napier) & 3 (Gunnery)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.35: Roger Varian has saddled two of the last seven winners and his Olden Tomes representative TIERCEL ran really well on soft ground at Sandown last year before contesting the Group 3 Autumn Stake at Newmarket to close out his juvenile year. The second effort was no mean achievement on much faster ground and it could just be that Andrea Atzeni's mount will be more at home with some cut in the ground. Whether any horse needs as much as there is likely to be on Saturday is open to doubt however. John Gosden was quoted this time last year as saying that TAQDEER was "a lovely horse and a great mover" which makes it such a pity that heavy ground has ensued though whether John will actually run his Fast Company representative on bad ground is open to plenty of debate. We were forecast plenty of rain here in Bristol this (Friday) morning though as yet (11.00) the wet stuff is only conspicuous by its absence thankfully. SABRE SQUADRON is a potential outsider to consider, whilst there is a form line connected to WAVE REVIEWS which suggests that the William Haggas could run these ragged if we take the bare details into account. Beaten just two and a half lengths on debut by Crazy Horse, it's worth noting that the John Gosden raider contests the Group 3 'Greenham' later on the card.
Favourite factor: Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged (only two market leaders have scored during the last decade), though seven of the last eight jollies have claimed Placepot positions.
2.10 (John Porter Stakes): Four-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last eight years (first and third three years ago). I was impressed with SANDRO BOTICELLI at Doncaster and I fancy John Ryan's mount to get the better of fellow four-year-old SOUND OF FREEDOM. That said, five-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests, with course winner AGENT MURPHY being the lone vintage representative this time around. Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops up and down the country if you want to join in the plunge on Restorer, the four-year-old I have left out of the mix!
Favourite factor: 13 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.
Newbury record of course winners in the 'John Porter':
2.40 ('Fred Darling'): Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ three years ago in a career which spanned over forty years. Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998. Richard 'junior’ has offered the green light to both MARENKO and LIGHT UP OUR WORLD, the pair being listed in order of preference at the time of writing. That all said, Ralph Beckett has his team in fine form and he has won the last three renewals of this 1000 Guineas when represented. Ralph has declared his Bahamian Bounty raider NASSUVIAN PEARL with each way claims in my book and given her official low (71) rating, Fran Berry's mount might offer value for money if the meeting is staged. Other to consider include BESHARAH and THE BLACK PRINCESS.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include five winners.
Newbury record of course winners in the 'Fred Darling':
3.15 ('Greenham'): Having won four of the last eight and five of the last 14 renewals, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card and in LOG OUT ISLAND and PALAWAN, the yard should be well represented. Richard's latter named Mount Nelson raider is the only soft ground winner in the field, albeit his stable companion is officially rated a superior horse by as much as twelve pounds. This type of ground can be a great leveller however and I would be shocked if PALAWAN finished a dozen lengths behind his stable companion, especially with race fitness on his side. TASLEET could prove to be the class act in the line-up though, whilst the chance of CRAZY HORSE would be enhanced if Wave Reviews wins the opening race on the card.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 18 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.
Newbury record of course winners in the 'Greenham':
3.50 (Spring Cup): Four and five-year-olds have won 17 of the last 18 renewals, whilst the relevant vintage representatives have secured 55 of the last 67 available toteplacepot positions in the process. Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 12 contests during the last 18 years whilst claiming 36 toteplacepot positions. The pick of the five vintage representatives this time around are MASTER OF IRONY (Drawn 3/17) and SINFONIETTA (2) and ROCCO'S DELIGHT (5) according to my slide rule, given that six of the seven four-year-old winners during the last eleven years had carried a maximum weight of 8-12. There is also the draw to consider and as you will note, my three selections are drawn low which could prove advantageous if you look below at the one renewal in the last 17 years to have been contested on heavy ground. All three horses act on soft/heavy ground for good measure. The pick of the trio of five-year-olds could prove to be LINCOLN (12) who has won on soft ground in the past, with Mick Channon's raider sitting bang on the 8-12 mark. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to GABRIAL'S KAKA (14) representing Richard Fahey who is the only trainer to have secured two victories in this race during the last decade. Out of interest, last year's unplaced favourite Buckstay heads the handicap this time around.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via 17 renewals during the last 18 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 13 of the last 17 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.
Draw factor' (eight furlongs) - last year's result listed first:
5-14-6-7 (22 ran-good to firm)
11-25-3-6 (23 ran-good)
21-9-1-7 (25 ran-good to soft)
7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)
10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)
12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)
20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)
11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)
11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)
13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)
22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)
26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)
14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)
20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)
6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)
14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)
Newbury record of course winners in the Spring Cup:
1/1--Gabrial's Kaka (won this race two years ago)
4.25: John Gosden attempts a four-timer in the race and in LORD NAPIER, John looks to have a fine chance of extended the great run, providing of course that the Galileo colt can handle the conditions. Keep an eye on the non-runner board and make your Placepot bets as late as possible, given that withdrawn fancied horses are the 'edge' to have in your favour when 'potting'. I do not have that advantage of course writing this column over 24 hours before flag fall of the opening event on Saturday's card. Connections of John's Epsom Derby entry LORD NAPIER are likely to fear GUNNERY (along with the conditions) more than most. Peter Chapple-Hyam's Le Havre colt is involved in the Dante/Derby at the time of writing and there was plenty to like about his debut effort here at Newbury under yielding conditions.
Favourite factor: Three of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), the three (9/4, 15/8 & 4/6) favourites having won their respective events. Before the 'drought' began however, three of the four favourites between 2004 and 2007 had prevailed.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday:
3--Sir Michael Stoute
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
70 declared runners
Placepot dividends for last year's corresponding meetings:
Ayr: £751.10 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Bangor: £10,789.70 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
Nottingham: £18.10 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thirsk: £258.60 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Wolverhampton: £182.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Three of the four odds on favourites have won at this corresponding fixture during the last five years, whilst John Gosden leads the favourite ratios with figures of 4/6. That said, Richard Fahey and Andrew Balding scored with the only market leaders they saddled during the study period.
From a negative perspective involving favourites, supporters of Roger Charlton (0/4) and Richard Hannon (0/3) have been badly hit. In total 13/46 market leaders have obliged.
The average Placepot dividend during the five year period stands at £487.50. 35 favourites contested the Placepot races: 11 winners - 11 placed - 13 unplaced.