DONCASTER – APRIL 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £407.80 (7 favourites - 2 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Keystroke), 7 (Maraakib), 20 (Carnival King) & 10 (Predominance)
Leg 2 (2.45): 17 (Storm Rock), 21 (Fire Ship), 11 (Mutakarez) & 6 (Farlow)
Leg 3 (3.20): 14 (Gracious John) & 2 (Jack Dexter)
Leg 4 (3.55): 1 (Custom Cut) & 8 (Muwarry)
Leg 5 (4.30): 11 (The Last Lion) & 3 (Crucial Moment)
Leg 6 (5.05): 10 (Neoclassical) & 6 (High Command)
Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes
2.15: Four-year-olds have won 14 renewals during the last 18 years (including 11 of the last 14), whilst the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-3. Ten vintage representatives have been declared, though only four relevant runner qualify via the weight trends. The pick of the quartet will hopefully prove to be KEYSTROKE, MARAAKIB and PREDOMINANCE. CARNIVAL KING is offered up the each way alternative option. The four nominations are drawn between stall numbers eight and fifteen which in a twenty two runner one mile event means that the pilots will be able to dictate the way they direct their horses from the traps.
Favourite factor: The last 14 favourites that failed to win their respective events also failed to secure toteplacepot positions. Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored during the last 12 years.
Draw details for the last ten renewals:
8-1-18-21 (21 ran-good)
15-16-14-18 (22 ran-soft)
16-8-20-13 (18 ran-soft)
2-7-8-12 (22 ran-good)
19-10-12-18 (19 ran-soft)
9-11-2-20 (21 ran-good to soft)
17-1-2-21 (21 ran-good to soft)
12-8-7-20 (22 ran-good)
Doncaster record of course winners in the first race:
1/2--Master Of Irony
2.45: Four-year-olds have claimed 18 of the last 52 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six of the last 13 winners. 15 of the last 17 winners have had a maximum of one run since the end of the previous flat season, whilst the last 11 winners have carried 9-4 or less. Putting all those stats and facts in the deep fat fryer produces a short list of STORM ROCK, FIRE SHIP, MUTARAKEZ and FARLOW. Last year's 12/1 winner Gabrial was the second named runner in dispatches. Gabrial was trained by Richard Fahey (as is Farlow) who boasts the best recent record in the contest. RIchard has saddled two winners and three placed horses during the last five years, albeit via fourteen representatives in the Lincoln Handicap. SECRET BRIEF is added to the overnight equation having earned the reserve nomination, despite his two outings since November.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Lincoln Handicap in the last 17 years which is a thoroughly decent return in such a competitive event, though just two of the other 13 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.
Effect of the draw during the last twelve years:
15-6-19-12 (22 ran-good)
3-22-20-18 (17 ran-soft)
3-1-19-10 (22 ran-soft)
12-21-9-2 (22 ran-good)
16-19-6-15 (21 ran-good)
1-5-10-14 (21 ran-soft)
9-3-2-20 (20 ran-good to firm)
12-3-16-5 (21 ran-good to soft)
13-21-2-1 (22 ran-good)
23-16-12-24 (24 ran-good)
6-7-1-12 (24 ran-good)
7-6-13-12 (23 ran-good to soft)
Doncaster record of course winners in the Lincoln Handicap:
3.20: The last ten winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst two favourites have prevailed via the last 12 contests. I suggested that first time up might be the time to catch Dinkum Diamond in the 2014 contest and sure enough, the 12/1 chance scored for us on soft ground. I'm tempted to go against my weight trend here as GRACIOUS JOHN met all kinds of traffic problems at Lingfield last week whereby I feel that the David Evans raider deserves another chance. If the trend is to be extended, I fancy that SUEDOIS and MAAREK offer value for money at the overnight stage. The other nomination is JACK DEXTER who has secured a medal of each colour in the race via just the three relevant assignments.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst nine of the last twenty market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Draw details for the last ten renewals:
10-11-5 (10 ran-good)
6-8-5 (9 ran-soft)
9-1-4 (8 ran-soft)
11-10-12 (14 ran-good)
5-7-14 (14 ran-good)
14-10-13 (13 ran-soft)
6-2-4 (13 ran-good to firm)
16-9-17 (15 ran-good to soft)
2-7-10 (11 ran-good)
16-17-12 (17 ran--good)
Doncaster record of course winners in the third event on the card:
1/4--Move In Time
3.55: David O'Meara saddled the winner of this event back in 2012 and CUSTOM CUT is a twelve time winner who could carry my cash on Saturday. Having won five races at a higher level (3 x Group 2 & two Group three events), this Listed event should be within reach despite the relevant penalties. MUWARRY is certainly the dark horse in the line-up who would be especially feared if money was forthcoming leading up to flag fall, whilst BELARDO completes my trio against the other five runners in this dead eight contest.
Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this Doncaster Mile event have changed around in recent years whereby the official stance now is that there are just three renewals to take into consideration with two of the four market leaders having secured a toteplacepot position (one winner).
4.30: Bill Turner has won the 'Brocklesby' five times in the last 14 years, whereby money for CRUCIAL MOMENT would be interesting. Bill's Pivotal raider was Bill's only option at the penultimate entry stage which is unusual, whilst the £40k purchase on Guy Fawkes Day last year is an expensive purchase as far as Bill's Somerset yard is concerned. That all said, Wesley Ward saddles his first 'Brocklesby' runner (Create A Dream) according to my records, whilst Mark Johnston has repeated last year's achievement of dominating the juvenile division thus far. Mark saddles THE LAST LION this time around.
Favourite factor: Just eight of the 24 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 17 years (two winners).
Draw details for the last twelve renewals:
2-6-4 (9 ran-good)
2-6-8 (17 ran-soft)
13-4-15 (12 ran-soft)
10-1-9 (12 ran-good)
5-2-9 (12 ran-good)
10-2-16 (14 ran-soft)
14-11-21 (19 ran-good to firm)
19-14-13 (19 ran-good to soft)
10-2-18 (18 ran-good)
5-12-4 (15 ran-good)
16-13-12 (18 ran-good)
15-5-14 (17 ran-soft)
5.05: Roger Varian (HIGH COMMAND) and John Gosden (NEOCLASSICAL and FASTNET BLAST) secured the same impressive stats of 8/27 here on Town Moor last season and their representatives carry my main overnight interest. These three-year-old maidens on Town Moor are difficult to solve at the best of times, let alone at the start of the season, whereby I will trust to the 2015 racecourse ratios of the selected trainers to close out my Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via 17 renewals during the last 18 years, whilst 11 gold medallists (including eight of the last 12) scored at odds of 5/1 or less. 11 of the 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Saturday:
7--Richard Fahey (12/90 at Doncaster last season)
6--Richard Hannon (9/55)
6--David O'Meara (8/58)
4--Marco Botti (3/29)
4--Brian Ellison (2/34)
4--Paul Midgley (0/16)
4--John Ryan (0/3)
3--Karl Burke (0/21)
3--Mick Channon (1/21)
3--Keith Dalgleish (0/9)
3--David Evans (1/21)
3--Michael Dods (1/25)
3--John Gosden (8/27)
3--Jedd O'Keeffe (1/19)
2--Andrew Balding (1/15)
2--Ralph Beckett (5/24)
2--Ruth Carr (1/25)
2--Tony Carroll (0/9)
2--Scott Dixon (1/15)
2--Robert Eddery (0/2)
2--Jim Goldie (2/26)
2--Richard Guest (1/13)
2--Brian Meehan (2/8)
2--Jeremy Noseda (3/10)
2--Deborah Sanderson (0/1)
2--Roger Varian (8/27)
2--Mark Walford (0/9)
+ 43 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
125 declared runners