NEWBURY – APRIL 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Midterm), 5 (Second Step) & 7 (Dai Harraild)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Dabyah), 9 (Rain Goddess) & 7 (Promising)
Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Barney Roy), 2 (Dream Castle) & 8 (Via Serendipity)
Leg 4 (3.40): 13 (George William), 20 (Fastnet Tempest), 17 (Storm Ahead) & 10 (Chelsea Lad)
Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Call To Mind) & 3 (Commander)
Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Dhalam) & 7 (Musical Terms)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
*Please note that as part of this card was transferred to Chelmsford last year with Newbury having been abandoned, I have completely ignored those results. The draw would obviously not have been valid and the whole context of the meeting was ‘lost’ from my viewpoint (divided thoughts of trainers/changes in declarations etc), whereby I have decided that my stats are classed as ‘turf only stats’. I hope you are in agreement with this decision though that said, the judge’s decision is final!
1.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last nine years (first and third four years ago). For all that I have waxed lyrical about John Gosden’s runners this week, Muntahaa was a little disappointing the last day whereby MIDTERM and DAI HARRAILD are preferred, despite giving race fitness away. SECOND STEP offers course stats of 2/2 and if an older horse is to deny the ‘juniors’ on this occasion, Roger Charlton’s six-year-old fits the bill. Available at 10/1 in a place or two this morning, SECOND STEP is the each way call in a fascinating opening event.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.
Record of the course winners in the 'John Porter':
2/2—Second Step (good & good to soft)
1/1—Midterm (good to soft)
2.30: Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ four years ago in a career which spanned over forty years. Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998. Richard 'junior’ saddled last year’s ‘Chelmsford winner’ and his raider PROMISING boasts win and place claims this time around. That said, DABYAH jumps off the page hailing from John Gosden’s in form yard, notwithstanding the fact that she won at the first time of asking last year (under fast conditions), suggesting that she is not a stuffy type for this first assignment of the year. Queen Kindly did not do a great deal wrong last season but 7/2 hardly represents value for money on her seasonal debut. Aidan O’Brien has not saddled a winner via five representatives at Newbury during the last five years which tempers enthusiasm a tad as far as his Galileo filly RAIN GODDESS is concerned.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include five winners.
Record of the course winners in the 'Fred Darling':
1/2—Poet’s Princess (good to soft)
3.05: Having won four of the last eight and five of the last 14 renewals on turf, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card and in their Haydock winner BARNEY ROY, the yard should be well represented. Snapped up by the Godolphin team following that sole start, ‘Barney’ is fancied to step up in class to winning effect before moving on the better things this season. Talking of Godolphin, the blue colours are also carried by DREAM CASTLE giving the team a stand out chance in this year’s renewal. VIA SERENDIPTY is offered up as the value for money alternative each way shout.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 18 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.
3.40: Four and five-year-olds have won 17 of the last 18 renewals on turf, whilst the relevant vintage representatives have secured 55 of the last 67 available toteplacepot positions in the process. Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 12 contests during the last 18 years whilst claiming 36 toteplacepot positions. The pick of the five vintage representatives this time around are GEORGE WILLIAM (Drawn 7/23), FASTNET TEMPEST (4) and STORM AHEAD (14) according to my slide rule, given that six of the seven four-year-old winners during the last twelve years had carried a maximum weight of 8-12. CHELSEA LAD (15) is added into the equation, despite Ryan Moore’s mount having to carry two pounds over the ‘superior’ weight barrier. The four ‘selections’ just about cover the width of the track where the ‘stall scenario’ should not present a problem from a Placepot perspective. Overnight moves have been noted for Donncha and Master Carpenter for those of you that follow ‘overnight money’.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via 17 renewals during the last 18 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 13 of the last 17 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.
Draw factor' (eight furlongs) - recent results listed first:
5-14-6-7 (22 ran-good to firm)
11-25-3-6 (23 ran-good)
21-9-1-7 (25 ran-good to soft)
7-21-8-11 (22 ran-soft)
10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)
12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)
20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)
11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)
11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)
13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)
22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)
26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)
14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)
20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)
6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)
14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)
Record of the course winner in the Spring Cup:
1/3—Boomshackerlacker (good to firm)
4.15: Roger Varian has saddled two of the last seven winners (turf stats) and his Frankel colt COMMANDER is expected to figure prominently with Roger having declared that he “ticks all the boxes”. Jungle drums have been beating for CALL TO MIND for some time and carrying the colours of The Queen, Ryan Moore’ mount should also run well for the William Haggas team. William intimated this time last year that although he liked the February foal a lot, this would be his year. Having missed last season entirely, let’s hope that the assessment was correct.
Favourite factor: Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged (ignoring the all-weather winner last year - only two market leaders have scored during the last decade), though seven of the last eight jollies have claimed Placepot positions.
4.45: It’s a shame that this race attracted so many (seemingly) no-hopers because the main protagonists in each division would have made a good race to witness had they clashed. John Gosden looks set to improve a fantastic week having declared DHAMLAM, though The Queen has another interesting runner on the card in MUSICAL TERMS.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby all the same stats apply. Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged (ignoring the all-weather winner last year - only two market leaders have scored during the last decade), though seven of the last eight jollies have claimed Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday followed by their five years stats at the course + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Richard Hannon (33/319 – loss of 120 points)
6—Wiliam Haggas (22/121 – loss of 14 points)
5—Roger Charlton (10/89 – loss of 22 points)
5—John Gosden (32/158 – Profit of 12 points)
4—Brian Meehan (14/142 – loss of 17 points)
4—Sir Michael Stoute (13/83 – loss of 16 points)
3—Ralph Beckett (16/104 – Profit of 5 points)
3—Richard Fahey (10/75 – Profit of 15 points)
3—Charlie Hills (11/155 – loss of 75 points)
3—Rod Millman (0/37)
3—Hughie Morrison (8/97 – loss of 21 points)
3—Marcus Tregoning (2/38 – loss of 28 points)
3—Roger Varian (8/72 – loss of 29 points)
2—Marco Botti (5/54 – loss of 11 points)
2—David Menuisier (1/7 – Slight profit)
2—William Muir (2/35 – loss of 25 points)
2—Aidan O’Brien (0/5)
2—Hugo Palmer (6/24 – Profit of 23 points)
2—Amanda Perrett (4/40 – Profit of 12 points)
2—David Simcock (7/44 (loss of 13 points)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £142.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Nottingham: £8,399.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Thirsk: £186.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Bangor: £516.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £158.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced