NEWMARKET – APRIL 30
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends from the last five years:
2015: £344.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
2014: £150.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
2013: £337.10 (8 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2012: £84.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
2011: £137.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average dividend: £210.80 - 33 favourites in total - 14 winners - 7 placed - 12 unplaced
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (2.00): 14 (Spring Offensive), 11 (Emerald) & 7 (Mutamakkin)
Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Cotai Glory), 20 (Waady), 7 (Dutch Masterpiece) & 22 (Iffranesia)
Leg 3 (3.05): 5 (Jack Hobbs) & 1 (Simple Verse)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Air Force Blue) & 8 (Marcel)
Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Stamp Hill), 9 (Ikerrin Road) & 6 (Plagiarism)
Leg 6 (4.55): 6 (Sky Kingdom) & 3 (Cymric)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Four-year-olds come to the party having won six of the last nine contests, whilst securing 16 of the last available 31 toteplacepot/each way positions. Nine of the eleven winners of the race have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whereby my short list comprises of SPRING OFFENSIVE, EMERALD and MUTAMAKKIN. The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing, all three horses having won with juice in the ground. Sir Michael Stoute (responsible for last year's beaten 9/2 favourite) saddles the latter named raider, whilst stable companion INTIMATION receives the overnight reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Five of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one winner.
Newmarket record of course winners in the opening contest:
1/9--Master The World
2.30 (Palace House Stakes): Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals of this event whereby DUTCH MASTERPIECE and IFFRANESIA are two big priced each way types to throw into the mix, with the ground not threatening to ruin their chances. I'm hoping that the rain does not come down too heavily to thwart the chance of COTAI GLORY who I am sweet on for reasons posted down at the foot of this column. As a winner of five of his eight races to date (one of them under soft conditions), WAADY cannot be ruled out of the equation. Out of interest, the only time this race has been contested with juice in the ground during the last decade in 2012, horses running from stalls 2-4-6 filled the frame in a sixteen runner field.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last sixteen favourites have won, whilst 10/20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Newmarket record of course winners in the second event on the card:
3.05 (Jockey Club Stakes): Four and five-year-olds have won the last fourteen renewals between them (equal split) and that ratio influenced yours truly to name last year's 7/1 winner Second Step. All seven runners this time around hail from the relevant vintages, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be JACK HOBBS and SIMPLE VERSE. Unfortunately, the chance of nominating another 7/1 winner looks remote with 'Jack' likely to go off around the 4/7 mark on Saturday.
Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve renewals have fallen the way of favourites, though just one other market leader has struck gold during the last eighteen years. 11/19 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions in recent times.
Newmarket record of course winners in the third race:
3.40 (2000 Guineas): Aidan O’Brien has won this race seven times in all and in AIR FORCE BLUE, Ballydoyle have a strong hand, notwithstanding his stable companion Air Vice Marshall also having been declared. AIR FORCE BLUE was a 4/7 chance with some firms three weeks ago, though there is a rumour that the market leader might be put up at 4/5 overnight if more rain is on the radar on Saturday morning. Either way, I doubt that even money will be on offer, though it just goes to show how dangerous it is to plunge on hot favourites in the ante post market these days. Each way alternatives include my 33/1 Racing Post winner MARCEL and the Group 2 gold medallist GALILEO GOLD. The 'Craven' winner STORMY ANTARCTIC could also outrun his odds in a fascinating renewal. All three each way options have acted on the ground as it stood at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Only four market leaders have won the 2000 Guineas since the turn of the Millennium, albeit 13/16 gold medallists scored at a top priced of 11/1. That said, the thick end of thirty per cent of the toteplacepot positions during the study period have been gained by horses starting at 25/1 or more! Four 100/1 chances have finished in the frame since the turn of the Millennium alongside the 150/1 runner up in 2013, notwithstanding the 40/1 winner two years ago.
2000 Guineas draw factor in recent years:
16-19-5 (18 ran-good to firm)
3-1-10 (14 ran-good to firm)
6-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)
12-16-4 (18 ran-good to soft)
1-5-11 (13 ran-good to firm)
5-9-16 (19 ran-good to firm)
17-3-4 (15-good to firm)
6-14-9 (15 ran-good)
10-19-7 (24 ran-good to firm)
9-11-13 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-14-16 (19 ran-good to firm)
11-1-4 (14 ran-good)
Newmarket record of course winners in the 2000 Guineas:
1/1--Air Force Blue
4.20: 17/19 horses to secure toteplacepot positions via just the six renewals thus far have carried weights of nine stones or less, stats which include all six winners, three of which won at 16/1-16/1-12/1. Accordingly, my short list against the field consists of STAMP HILL (the more rain the better), IKERRIN ROAD (John Quinn has his team in good form) and PLAGIARISM, a winner on his seasonal debut last year. HOPE COVE is offered the reserve nomination, though soft ground would be an unknown factor.
Favourite factor: All six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners at 9/2-9/2-11/10.
4.55 (Newmarket Stakes): Pat Smullen retains the ride aboard SKY KINGDOM who the jockey rates as the pick of his rides on Saturday. 'Wood Ditton' form varies from year to year to say the least, though it would be disappointing if the William Haggas raider failed to (at least) repeat his effort from an impressive performance on his first day at school. CYMRIC could be a real threat if the rain came before flag fall as his seven furlong success on soft ground at Sandown last year remains locked in the memory bank. ABDON completes my trio against the other five contenders to close out the first Placepot teaser of the weekend.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst 10/18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years.
Newmarket record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday:
7--Mark Johnston (1/7 at Newmarket this season)
4--Charlie Appleby (0/3)
4--Robert Cowell (--)
4--Richard Fahey (0/3)
4--John Gosden (5/16)
4--Sir Micahel Stoute (1/7)
3--James Fanshawe (0/1)
3--Richard Hannon (1/15)
3--Hugo Palmer (1/4)
3--Ed Walker (1/3)
2--Conrad Allen (--)
2--Ralph Beckett (0/2)
2--Clive Cox (--)
2--Brian Meehan (0/1)
2--Paul Midgley (0/1)
2--William Muir (0/3)
2--Aidan O'Brien (0/4)
2--John Quinn (1/1)
2--Saeed Bin Suroor (1/7)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
85 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends fro last year:
Doncaster: £1,440.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 unplaced - 4 unplaced)
Goodwood: £257.60 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Hexham: £374.80 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Thirsk: £64.70 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Uttoxeter: £19.40 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
This season's Placepot dividends:
April 12: £236.50 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
April 13: £12.70 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
April 14: £162.80 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
I cannot help but note that Charlie Hills saddles just the one runner on the Newmarket card, the trainer boasting 3/11 stats on the Rowley Mile after the 'Craven meeting'. Only John Gosden saddled more winners earlier this month, whereby Cotai Glory (2.30) definitely rates as an each way player from my viewpoint.