Placepot pointers – Saturday August 13

NEWBURY - AUGUST 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £10,565.40 (7 favourites - No winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 13 (Promising) & 4 (Contentment)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Escobar), 4 (Amabilis) & 2 (Frankuus)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Red Cardinal) & 1 (Kings Fete)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Von Blucher), 15 (Dollar Reward) & 16 (Noble Peace)

Leg 5 (4.10): 4 (Home Of The Brave), 1 (Convey) & 6 (Markaz)

Leg 6 (4.45): 4 (Vincent's Forever) & 6 (Wapping)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Newbury - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Richard Hannon landed his first success of this opening event two years ago, with his dad having secured a hat trick between 2009/11.  Richard saddles his Goodwood runner up PROMISING who lived up to her name when outrunning her 33/1 odds when beaten a neck at the first time of asking.  Quite why the Invincible Spirit raider was allowed to go off at such a price remains a mystery, given that Richard singled his March foal as one to watch (Royal Ascot was mentioned) at a stable tour earlier in the season.  The main dangers on this occasion appear to be CONTENTMENT and (possibly) AMELIA DREAM.  Jungle drums have been beating about the William Haggas newcomer CONTENTMENT for some considerable time.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won via the last 21 renewals, whilst 15 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

12-3-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

3-6-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

13-7-8 (14 ran-good)

2-4-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

10-2-1 (9 ran-good)

10-4 (7 ran-good)

11-10-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-4-11 (10 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-4-8 (15 ran-good to soft)

5-12-7 (15 ran-good to soft)

9-5-7 (11 ran-good)

3-7-10 (11 ran-good)

7-5-15 (15 ran-good to firm)

16-3-4 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-2-8 (10 ran-good to soft)

6-11-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

11-13-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-10-15 (21 ran-good to firm)

2.30: 11 of the last 13 winners were sent off at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include seven successful favourites of one description or another.  Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last ten winners whereby His Frankel raider FRANKUUS cannot be overlooked at the overnight stage, even though it could be argued that Adam Kirby's mount has not progressed since scoring on debut.  Hugo Palmer had won with three of his five runners at Newbury before Friday's sport was contested at the Berkshire venue, with ESCOBAR having won over course and distance on his only start to date. AMABILIS has run two fine races in defeat when snaring silver medals.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged during the last 17 years.  10 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1--Escobar (good to firm)

3.05: Eight of the last sixteen favourites have won whilst four-year-olds have snared six of the last eleven renewals of this ‘Geoffrey Freer’ event. Only RED CARDINAL represents the vintage this time around with David Simcock's Montjeau colt coming to the gig on a four timer.  Seemingly up against it according to official figures, I am not one to let the assessor complicate my trend system, whereby Jamie Spencer's mount will feature in my Placepot permutation, probably alongside KINGS FETE who won a similar Group 3 contest at Goodwood's 'Glorious' meeting a few weeks back.  A three pound rise seems reasonable.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners. Seven of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

3.40: Three-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals which makes for impressive reading as only 23% (25/107) of the relevant fields were made up of junior representatives.  Six relevant horses (in a sixteen strong field) are set to go to post and with the chances of VON BLUCHER, DOLLAR REWARD and NOBLE PEACE catching my eye at the time of writing.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to MONTADAB.  David Loughnane has his team in great form and Pat Smullen is an interesting booking.

Favourite factor: Three of the last thirteen favourites have won, results which came as a welcome relief to punters as three of the previous four winners had scored at 25/1-20/1-16/1.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

2-8-13 (9 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-13-2 (14 ran-good)

12-1-2 (14 ran-good to firm)

14-1-10(15 ran-good)

2-7-4 (9 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-9-4 (11 ran-good to soft)

13-14-12 (14 ran-good to soft)

13-8-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

13-9-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

Your first 30 days for just £1

14-7-15-2 (16 ran-good)

4-6-3 (10-good to firm)

15-6-2 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

9-1-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

14-5-7-13 (18 ran-good)

6-2-7 (9 ran-good)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/7--Pastoral Player (good to firm)

4.10: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last fifteen renewals, though three-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests of this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes.  With no 'junior' runners in the line up this time around, the way if left clear for four-year-olds to make the most of the opportunity, the pick of which should prove to be HOME OF THE BRAVE, CONVEY and MARKAZ.

Favourite factor: Four clear marker leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last seventeen years.  Nine of the nineteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

2-13-7 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (6 ran-good to soft)

5-4 (5 ran-good)

4-10-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-11 (9 ran-good)

6-9 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4-10 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-2-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-3-5 (9 ran-good)

7-11-6 (13 ran-good)

4-5-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

6-3-8 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

4.45: Although course and distance winner LOVING YOUR WORK will (rightly) have plenty of supporters in the Placepot finale, I tend to fill my Placepot slips will three-year-olds in this type of mixed vintage event, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be VINCENT'S FOREVER and WAPPING.

Favourite Factor: Last year's inaugural 11/4 favourites finished out of the money in fourth placed behind horses which filled the frame at 14/1-14/1-8/1.

Record of the course winner in the contest:

3/5--Loving Your Work (2 x good to soft + good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday:

5--Richard Hannon (7/48 at Newbury this season - winners at 20/1-10/1-15/2-7/1-7/2-3/1-11/8*)

4--Sir Michael Stoute (2/10 - winners at 2/1 & 4/11*)

3--John Gosden (2/24 - winners at 13/2 & 7/2)

3--William Haggas (0/7)

3--Charlie Hills (1/25 - winner at 5/1)

3--Hughie Morrison (3/14 - winners at 8/1-11/2-3/1)

2--Ralph Beckett (2/7 - winners at 3/1 & 2/7*)

2--Henry Candy (1/10 - winner at 25/1)

2--Mick Channon (0/22)

2--David Evans (0/16)

2--Marjorie Fife (---)

2--David Loughnane (---)

2--Brian Meehan (3/21 - winners at 20/1-9/1-8/1)

2--Hugo Palmer (3/5 - winners at 16/1-12/1-4/1)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £822.90 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £49.60 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced

Market Rasen: £475.50 - 7 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced

Newmarket: £91.80 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced

Ripon: £155.60 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced

 

Newbury overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 1.55 & 2.30:

1.55: 

7/97--Mick Channon (Amelia Dream & Harlequin Rose)

0/1--Simon Dow (Chica De La Noche)

1/33--Ralph Beckett (Considered Opinion)

7/45--William Haggas (Contentment)

0/6--Clive Cox (Foxcatcher)

5/24--Henry Candy (Guiding Star)

0/2--Richard Hughes (Hathra)

0/10--William Muir (Heart Of Gold)

1/7--Jeremy Noseda (Magicinthemaking)

2/34--Eve Johnson Houghton (Nuptials)

2/14--Sir Michael Stoute (Partitia)

17/140--Richard Hannon (Promising)

0/12--Charlie Hills (Sukiwarrior)

6/76--Brian Meehan (Think Fashion)

2.30: 

2/7--Hugo Palmer (Escobar)

7/36--Mark Johnston (Frankuus)

17/140--Richard Hannon (Mr Scaramanga)

1/33--Ralph Beckett (Amabilis)

1/21--Marcus Tregoning (Argenterie)

 

 

 

Your first 30 days for just £1