Placepot pointers – Saturday August 20

YORK - AUGUST 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £4,822.50 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 6 (Dark Red), 5 (Erik The Red), 13 (Master Of Irony) & 8 (Snoano)

Leg 2 (2.15): 4 (Countermeasure) & 10 (Diploma)

Leg 3 (2.50): 11 (Jaameh), 9 (Injam) & 4 (Kellstorm)

Leg 4 (3.25): 9 (Mubtasim) & 3 (Dream Of Dreams)

Leg 5 (4.00): 12 (Heartbreak City), 18 (Shrewd), 16 (Ballynanty) & 19 (Top Tug)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Afandem) & 3 (Final Reckoning)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for York - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.45: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last twelve renewals, whilst securing 22 of the last 43 available toteplacepot positions.  The fact that just a quintet of four-year-olds have been declared this time around defies belief accordingly.  10 of the last 16 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less whereby a value for money ‘short list’ of DARK RED, ERIK THE RED and MASTER OF IRONY emerges.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to SNOANO. Each way/toteplacepot enthusiasts should be mindful that such investors carried confidence into the race from a 'fourth place' scenario in each of the last two years, only to witness an aggregate of nine non runners emerging whereby fourth place was of no use whatsoever!

Favourite factor:  Nine of the last eighteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which includes four winners during the study period.

Draw factor (ten and a furlongs):

15-7-17 (15 ran-good)

9-16-5 (15 ran-good)

10-5-6 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-11-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

4-15-7-9 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-12-10-15 (18 ran-good)

7-10-11-14 (17 ran-good to firm)

14-20-17-16 (18 ran-good)

14-3-1-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-13-12 (19 ran-good)

8-10-1 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-4-2 (9 ran-good)

16-7-2-17 (19 ran-good)

1-16-10-12 (17 ran-good)

5-4-11 (11 ran-good)

3-9-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-14-9-4 (16 ran-good)

Record of course winners in the opening race:

3/13--Chancery (2 x good to soft + good to firm)

1/1--Snoano (good to soft)

1/5--Imshivalla (good to soft)

2.15: Four-year-olds have won five of the last 12 renewals and nine race (high profile) maiden COUNTERMEASURE might have his day in the sun this time around, albeit visitors to the Knavesmire on Saturday are unlikely to witness that yellow object in the sky.  Roger Charlton made up for the defeat of Fair Eva on Thursday when securing a race at the other end of the distance barriers at York on Friday and COUNTERMEASURE gets my vote in this grade/company.  Beaten four lengths by Time Test at level weights last time out, what price would the winner of that race be in this event?  SCOTTISH and DIPLOMA are realistic threats whilst the dark horse in the contest is YORKER.

Favourite factor: Five of the last twelve favourites have scored.  The biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1 since the turn of the Millennium.

Course record in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes:

2/2--Tullius (good to firm & soft)

1/2--Celestial Path (good to firm)

1/3--Custom Cut (good)

2/6--Educate (good & heavy)

2/2--Diploma (good & good to firm)

2.50: The last 13 winners of the 'Melrose' carried weights of 9-4 or less whereby my quartet against the field consists of KELLSTORM, EMPERIOR NAPOEON, INJAM and JAAMEH.  The last named pair would benefit from more rain overnight, especially in the case of JAAMEH with the rain coming in time for him, as opposed to stable companion Regal Monarch.

Favourite factor:  Three of the last 15 favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium during which time, whilst the last seven winners have scored at prices ranging between 8/1 & 28/1.

Course winner in the Melrose Stakes:

1/1--Master Blueyes (good to firm)

3.25: Kevin Ryan has secured the two of the last four renewals of this ‘Gimcrack‘ event, also having saddled Aamadeus Wold to score eleven years ago.  DREAM OF DREAMS is the mount of Jamie Spencer who is enjoying a good week whereby Kevin's Dream Ahead raider will lack for nothing from the saddle.  That said, MUBTASIM was very impressive at Haydock last time out, though it remains to be seen if this softer ground will suit the Arcano raider.  INTELLIGENCE CROSS completes my trio against the other eight contenders.

Favourite factor:  Only one favourite has obliged during the last thirteen years, albeit ten of the last eleven winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Seven of the fifteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

9-5-4 (8 ran-good)

5-6-9 (9 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

6-7-23 (8 ran-good)

1-4-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-7-10 (11 ran-good)

4-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

5-2-4 (8 ran-good)

3-2 (6 ran-good to soft)

9-7-6 (13 ran-good)

2-4-3 (11 ran-soft)

9-5-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-4-1 (11 ran-good)

9-7-2 (9 ran-good)

2-5-3 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (10 ran-good)

7-5-8 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

4.00: The number of three-year-old declarations in the Ebor Handicap has dropped, with only the very best vintage representatives able to take their place in the line up which disappoints yours truly to a fashion. The last junior winner was recorded  2001 remains to be seen and once again, three-year-olds are conspicuous only by their absence on this occasion.  Last year's seven-year-old winner was first older horse (seven or more) to win in over 35 years.  11 of the last 14 winners have been drawn fourteen or higher, with only two winners drawn in single figures during the study period. The last 13 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last 11 contests.  Taking the facts and stats into account, my ‘short list’ for the ‘Ebor’ consists of HEARTBREAK CITY (15/21), SHREWD (10), BALLYNANTY (1) and TOP TUG (4).  The ‘dark horse’ from my viewpoint is SHE IS NO LADY (5).

Favourite factor:  Two favourites have won via the last 17 renewals with 10 market leaders securing toteplacepot positions in the process.

Course winners in the Ebor Handicap:

1/2--Vent De Force (good)

1/1--Heartbreak City (good to soft)

1/4--Shrewd (good)

1/3--First Mohican (good to soft)

4.35: Second and third favourites have decent records in this event of late and FIRST RECKONING looks a viable proposition, with AFANDEM likely to be too short for the 'working man' to back from a win perspectively.  I would be abosutely banjaxed if both horses finished out of the frame, though whether we reach the final leg of our favourite wager is another matter entirely.

Favourite factor:  Three favourites have won via the last 18 renewals, whilst 12 of the other 16 market leaders failed to reach the frame.  Only one favourite has obliged via 12 renewals during the last 13 years, though 10 of those gold medallists were returned at a top price of 17/2.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

8-4-7 (9 ran-good)

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1-6-4 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (6 ran-soft)

3-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

10-1-4 (10 ran-good)

9-13-6 (13 ran-good)

2-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2-7 (10 ran-good)

6-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

4-6-7 (10 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-soft)

2-6-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-2-9 (10 ran-good)

8-4-2 (8 ran-good)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

7-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Saturday:

9--Mark Johnston (2/47 at York this season - winners at 9/1 & 5/1)

5--Charlie Appleby (1/12 - winner at 3/1**)

5--Ralph Beckett (3/11 - winners at 25/1-7/2**-10/3)

5--Tim Easterby (3/39 - winners at 11/1-9/1-5/1)

5--Richard Fahey (7/81 - winners at 33/1-20/1-10/1-13/2-5/1-9/2-4/1)

5--Kevin Ryan (5/38 - winners at 16/1-5/1-9/2-3/1-13/8*)

4--David O'Meara (2/75 - winners at 8/1 twice)

3--Andrew Balding (0/7)

3--William Haggas (4/18 - winners at 11/1-3/1*-11/4*-6/5*)

3--Alan King (2/6 - winners at 10/1 & 7/1)

3--Aidan O'Brien (2/15 - 10/3 & 5/6*)

3--Sir Michael Stoute (4/13 - winners at 6/1-11/4-9/4*-13/8*)

2--Marco Botti (0/3)

2--Ed Dunlop (0/6)

2--Brian Ellison (1/25 - winner at 25/1)

2--Richard Guest (0/6)

2--Ron Harris (1/3 - winner at 11/4*)

2--Tony Martin (---)

2--Hughie Morrison (0/4)

2--Hugo Palmer (0/7)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

99 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £80.00 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed -2 unplaced

Chester: £311.40 - 9 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: £23.30 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced

Newton Abbot: £114.20 - 6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced

Perth: £11.60 - 6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 placed

Sandown: £168.00 - 7 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced

 

York overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 3.25 & 4.35:

3.25:

0/4--John Gosden (Ardad)

3/9--Charlie Appleby (Blue Point)

19/103--Kevin Ryan (Dream Of Dreams)

0/6--Ed Dunlop (Global Applause)

No runners--John Ryan (Grey Brittain)

0/6--Aidan O'Brien (Intelligence Cross)

2/22--Karl Burke (Medici Banchiere)

0/1--Simon Crisford (Mokarris)

1/5--Wiliam Haggas (Mubtasim)

5/96--Mark Johnston (The Last Lion)

1/4--Marco Botti (Unabated)

4.35: 

0/7--Hugo Palmer (Afandem)

1/13--Tom Dascombe (Big Time Baby)

3/9--Charlie Appleby (Final Reckoning)

0/5--James Tate (Kyllachy Rock)

No runners--Ron Harris (Secret Potion)

0/2--David Evans (Smokey Lane)

5/96--Mark Johnston (Sutter County)

4/27--Richard Fahey (Megan Lily)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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