Placepot pointers – Saturday August 27

GOODWOOD - AUGUST 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £82.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Bella Alissa), 6 (Glacier Point) & 4 (Eula Varner)

Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (Grecial Light) & 4 (Kilmah)

Leg 3 (3.20): 10 (Withernsea), 12 (Big Time), 11 (Farlow) & 4 (Mister Universe)

Leg 4 (3.55): 2 (Mr Singh) & 8 (Platitude)

Leg 5 (4.30): 4 (Thikriyaat) & 5 (Zonderland)

Leg 6 (5.05): 4 (Illusive), 2 (Room Key) & 8 (Red Rannagh)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Henry Candy has has saddled two of the three winners to date, whereby his newcomer EULA VARNEL will be kept on the right side, especially as the trainer intimated earlier in the year that his Showcasing filly moved particularly well for a big horse during a stable visit.  The size of Henry's April foal might just be against her down the hill here at Goodwood at the first time of asking whereby she might be playing catch up with other newcomers such as BELLA ALISSA and GLACIER POINT late doors.  The experienced runners in the field have failed to pull up a tree between them thus far.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites (via three renewals) have missed out on toteplacepot positions thus far.

2.45: Several leading trainers in the land are represented in this Group 3 Prestige Stakes which looks like it will take plenty of winning.  Eight of the nine fillies have already won, with just a Richard Hannon raider missing out thus far which makes for a rare change!  GRECIAN LIGHT and KILMAH stand out from the crowd (albeit marginally) from my take on the contest, with ARWA expected to be on the their  heels in the shadow of the post.  Richard's raider PROMISING deserves her place in the line up, albeit as a maiden.

Favourite factor: Six of the last nine favourites have prevailed whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the period.

3.20: The last six winners have all carried a minimum burden of 8-11 (as have nine of the last eleven), whereby the bottom nine horses in the handicap are eliminated from my thoughts alongside two other, who are weighted to drop into the 'inferior' sector of the list via a jockey claim.  The pick of the remaining eleven contenders will hopefully prove to be some northern raiders, namely BIG TIME and Richard Fahey's pair WITHERNSEA and FARLOW who are listed marginally in order of preference.   The overnight reserve nomaintion is awarded to Mark Johnston's MISTER UNIVERSE, making it potentially a clean sweep for trainers 'north of Newmarket'!

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have landed four of the last seven contests, whilst six of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame during the recent period (exact science).

Record of course winners in the third event:

1/3--Donncha (good)

1/5--Can't Change It (good)

1/4--Rex Imperator (good)

1/3--Majestic Moon (good)

2/2--Shady McCoy (good & good to firm)

3.55: Seven of the eleven winners (in as many years) have carried a minimum burden of 9-7 in this Listed event whereby I am homing in on the top two horses in the weights first and foremost, namely MR SINGH and GLARING. The official figures suggest that it would be churlish to ignore the chances of two of the trio of three-year-olds in the field, with PLATITUDE and GOLDMEMBER standing out from the crowd if we conveniently ignore the weight stats.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last eleven renewals have been claimed by hoses sent off at odds of 4/1 or less, statistics which include two clear market leaders and one joint favourite.  Five of the twelve favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.30: Three-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals of this 'Celebration Mile' and going back further in time, the positive stats for the three-year-old increase, with junior raiders having won 13 of the last 22 contests. THIKRIYAAT and ZONDERLAND certainly boast definite claims this time around and with Arod tending to flatter to deceive these days, I'll nominate LIGHTNING SPEAR as the main threat from the older horses.   ZONDERLAND hails from last year's successful Clive Cox yard, whilst Sir Michael Stoute's improving Azamour gelding THIKRIYAAT has won four of five assignments to date.

Favourite factor: Only three favourites have prevailed during the last eleven years though that said, ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 8/1.  Five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  It's worth noting that only two of the five odds on favourites in this event have won during the last eleven years.

Record of course winners in the 'Celebration Mile':

2/4--Toormore (2 x good to soft)

1/1--Thikrayaat (good to firm)

5.05: If we take the claimr's allowance into account, ILLUSIVE is well in here after his course and distance victory last time out and there is every chance that George Scott's Galileo representative can snare another Plcepot position at the very least. Others for the overnight mix include ROOM KEY and RED RANNAGH from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame thus far,  behind winners who scored at 25/1-25/1-16/1-11/2.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2--Illusive (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Goodwood card on Saturday (Stats compiled prior to Friday's meeting):

9--Richard Hannon (6/49 at Goodwood this season winners at 16/1-7/1-9/2-9/2-7/2-3/1)

6--Richard Fahey (1/27 - winner at 6/1)

5--David Simcock (3/18 - winners at 10/1-7/1-13/8)

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3--Peter Chapple-Hyam (0/3)

3--Clive Cox (1/11 - winner at 11/1)

3--Mark Johnston (7/54 - winners at 12/1-17/2-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-5/2)

2--Charlie Appleby (6/24 - winners at 5/1-9/2-9/2*-4/1-11/4-11/8*)

2--Mick Channon (4/33 - winners at 16/1-7/2*-5/2*-9/4*)

2--David Menusier (0/1)

2--David O'Meara (0/6)

2--Sir Michael Stoute (7/23 - winners at 8/1-9/2-5/2*-9/4*-2/1*-7/4*-13/8*)

2--Ian Williams (1/6 winner at 14/1)

2--Stuart Williams (0/8)

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £315.30 - 8 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced

Cartmel: £234.80 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced

Newmarket: £127.70 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced

Redcar: £42.30 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced

Windsor: £23.30 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced

 

Goodwood overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.10 & 2.45 (Stats compiled before Friday's meeting was contested):

2.10:

1/13--Peter Chapple-Hyam (Bella Alissa)

0/2--Simon Dow (Chica De La Noche)

14/102--Richard Hannon (Curry - Money In My Pocket - Silver Mist)

4/12--Henry Candy (Eula Varnel)

0/18--Stan Moore (Everkyllachy)

1/23--Clive Cox (Glacier Point)

0/1--Stuart Kittow (Incentive)

0/2--Dean Ivory (Seaview)

9/89--Mick Channon (Tara Celeb)

0/2--Tony Carroll (Twilight Spirit)

 

2.45:

3/49--Charlie Hills (Arwa)

3/33--Richard Fahey (Belle Meade)

6/26--Charlie Appleby (Grecian Light)

15/77--Mark Johnston (Kilmah)

3/12--William Haggas (On Her Toes)

14/102--Richard Hannon (Promising)

1/17--Ralph Beckett (Rich Legacy)

0/16--Sylvester Kirk (Tibuttina)

0/1--James Tate (Urban Fox)

 

 

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