HAYDOCK - AUGUST 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £112.50 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock:
Leg 1 (2.00): 7 (Pick Your Choice), 6 (Spring Offensive) & 4 (Treasuary Notes)
Leg 2 (2.35): 6 (Top Of The Glas), 4 (Tapis Libre) & 5 (Multellie)
Leg 3 (3.10): 11 (Mix And Mingle) & 8 (Golden Stunner)
Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (Foundation) & 7 (Royal Artillery)
Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Gershwin) & 2 (Snoano)
Leg 6 (4.45): 8 (Barkstone Ash), 6 (Brilliant Vanguard) & 1 (Ustinov)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
General overview - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Four-year-olds have won the last five (and six of the last seven) renewals. It defied belief accordingly that just two relevant raiders lined up though it made little difference as another 4/1 was added to the tally. 43% of this year's field (6/14) is made up of four-year-olds which makes the selections a little more difficult to asses though in PICK YOUR CHOICE, SPRING OFFENSIVE and TREASUARY NOTES, we should get through to the second leg of our favourite wager comfortably. I had to agree with Hugo Palmer's comments during the week about Galileo Gold having been dropped a pound after his narrow defeat at Goodwood, something which Hugo would appreciate for his handicappers from time to time! The case is relevant here as Sir Michael Stoute's representative Grand Inquisitor was beaten seventeen and a half lengths last time out but runs here off the same mark. Indeed, Sir Michael's four-year-old has been beaten by an aggregate of 44 lengths via his last six defeats, yet he runs off the same mark as when that negative run started!
Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen favourites during the last eleven years have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five successful markets leaders, whilst a rogue 66/1 chance came to the aid of bookmakers back in 2009.
Record of course winners in the opening race:
1/7--Silvery Moon (heavy)
1/3--Archie (good to soft)
1/1--Free Code (good)
3/6--Mont Ras (2 x good + good to firm)
6/21--Chosen Character (2 x good, 2 x good soft, soft and heavy)
2.35: The three course winners will do for yours truly in a race which cuts me to the quick for reasons stated below. TOP OF THE GLAS is joined by C/D winners TAPIS LIBRE and MULTELLIE in my Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: This looks another of the nonsensical 'Shergar Cup' style of race which I have evaded for so many years now. As stated before, I cannot hold with the hypocracy of the BHA who hold so dear to them the finer points of the rules of the sport and then entertain 'team games' at Ascot! Out of interest, you might note that every favourite at Ascot last year finished out of the frame in the Placepot events. As you might have gathered, this is a new race on the Haydock card and personally, I hope that it is the only renewal to be staged. Big Mal, News At Ten.....
3.10: Three-year-olds have held the edge in this race to date, maintaining the tradition of successful junior raiders on this card down the years. Vintage representatives are 1/2 to extend the trend before the form book is consulted this time around, with MIX AND MIGLE and GOLDEN STUNNER arguably being the pick of the ten relevant entries. These two fillies look more than capable of holding their own (at the very least) against their five older rivals, with MUFFRI 'HA possibly standing out from that small crowd.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite, the five winners being returned at 12/1-11/1--10/1--13/2--9/2 thus far. Two of the six market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of course winners in the second event on the card
1/1--Tapis Libre (good to firm)
1/1--Top Of The Glas (good)
3.45: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last seventeen renewals, yet junior raiders were conspicuous by their absence five years ago and only the runner up represented the vintage three years back. Only John Gosden appears to have availed himself of the relevant information, because John saddles the only two 'junior' raider in this year's field, namely FOUNDATION and ROYAL ARTILLERY. Don't get put off by that scenario as last year's winner Intilaaq was the only relevant horse in the line up.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have scored via eighteen renewals. 14 of the 20 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the third contest:
1/1--Light And Shade (good)
1/1--Peru (good to soft)
4.15: Ten of the twelve winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less whilst three-year-olds have won five of the twelve renewals. Both trends went 'pear shaped' last year, always trying to give readers the full picture. GERSHWIN has the best chance of the trio of three-year-olds in the field to my way of thinking, whilst if the stats go base over apex again, SNOANO could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Three of the twelve contests have fallen the way of the favourites of one description or another. Seven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:
1/3--Lord Ben Stack (good to soft)
1/1--Gershwin (good to soft)
1/1--Demonstration (good to firm)
4.45: The last nine winners of the toteplacepot finale have carried a minimum weight of 9-1, statistics which unfortunately do not help on this occasion, though I have left the information in the analysis as I know many readers like to keep records. Upwards and onward by suggesting that ten time winner BARKSTONE ASH has been given a chance b y the handicapper here, having been dropped two pounds relating to his last two efforts when 'only' beaten by an aggregate of less than ten lengths. Not getting any younger at eight years of age, Eric Alston's raider representats a value for money each way shour from my viewpoi9nt. Arguably, more logical winners in the field include
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade. Eight of the last eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Haydock card on Saturday - the stats are relevant up to and including the meeting staged on Thursday 4th August:
7--Richard Fahey (5/49 at Haydock this season - winners at 7/2*-11/4*-5/2*-7/4*6/4*)
5--Tim Easterby (4/35 - winners at 12/1-17/2-7/1-4/1)
3--John Gosden (1/11 - winner at Evens*)
3--David O'Meara (5/28 - winners at 16/1-8/1-7/1-7/2*-10/3*)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (1/10 - winner at 6/1)
2--Charlie Appleby (3/10 - winners at 11/4*-11/4***-15/8*)
2--Clive Cox (1/7 - winner at 8/1)
2--Tom Dascombe (10/52 - Priced ranging between 13/8* & 50/1)
2--Brian Ellison (3/13 - winners at 12/1-6/1-5/1)
2--William Haggas (9/20 - Prices ranging between 4/6* & 4/1)
2--Mark Johnston (5/35 - winners at 5/1-4/1-11/4-15/8*-5/4*)
2--David Loughnane (0/7)
2--Kevin Ryan (1/23 - winner at 2/1*)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
69 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ascot: £881.60 - All six favourites finished out of the frame
Ayr: £418.90 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced
Lingfield: £5,964.50 - 6 favourites - No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced
Newmarket: £228.40 - 6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Redcar: £157.70 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Represented trainers who secured multiple winners at the corresponding meetings last year:
Karl Burke - 1 runner at Ayr having secured a 22/1 double there last year
Richard Fahey - 4 runners at Redcar - 4/1 double twelve months ago