ASCOT - DECEMBER 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £498.00 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (12.40): 6 (Wylde Magic), 5 (Walt) & 1 (Red Infantry)
Leg 2 (1.15): 3 (Top Notch) & 1 (Caid Du Berlais)
Leg 3 (1.50): 5 (Orbasa), 9 (Overtown Express) & 2 (Captain Conan)
Leg 4 (2.25): 7 (Unowhatimeanharry) & 1 (Alex De Larredya)
Leg 5 (3.00): 13 (Go Conquer), 12 (Fourth Act) & 9 (Fletcher’s Flyer)
Leg 6 (3.35): 3 (Brain Power), 12 (Meet The Legend), 19 (Golden Spear) & 13 (Willow’s Saviour)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Just the six renewals to date though that said, five-year-olds have won all six events (12/1-7/1-6/1-6/1-9/2-3/1*) whilst securing the forecast positions on two occasions (9/2 & 8/1--6/1 & 14/1) and the first and third horses home (3/1 & 16/1) four years ago. Last year’s 12/1 winner was the first name on my team sheet. The pick of this year's three vintage representatives could prove to be WYLDE MAGIC and WALT. If the vintage trend is to be breached this time around, RED INFANTRY could outrun his odds representing the consistent Ian Williams yard.
Favourite factor: Three of the six market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via one gold and two silver medals.
1.15: Five-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals and in TOP NOTCH, the vintage could barely have a better (lone) representative. His hurdling form was ‘top notch’ or damn close, though it’s as well to note that Paul Nicholls boasts identical stats from a trainer perspective, whereby CAID DU BERLAIS is the obvious danger. In receipt of four pounds however, the vote has to go to TOP NOTCH who should build on a promising start to his chasing career.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (10/11--5/4**--6/5--Evens) winners.
Record of the course winners in the second event:
1/1—Top Notch (soft)
1.50: Paul Nicholls held three options during the week in an attempt to follow up his victory in the first running of this event twelve months ago, Paul has declared ORBASA having won with his last six runners over the course last two days. This is a competitive even however, with chances also offered to the likes of OVERTOWN EXPRESS and even CAPTAIN CONAN who would have been a ‘good thing’ in this grade/company not so long ago.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite missed out on a Placepot position.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/2—Johnny Og (soft)
1/1—Dark Flame = (good to soft)
1/1—Ravens Tower (good)
2.25: Paul Nicholls (Ptit Zig and Zarkandar preferred in the order as listed) has a good record in this event (thanks to Big Bucks in the main recently), though it would arguably take a career best effort from both horses to finish in front of UNOWHATIMEANHARRY, if Harry Fry’s raider arrives at the course at the top of his game. Much could depend on the weather however, as the French raider ALEX DE LARREDYA could go very close if the ground comes up soft (or heavy) on Saturday. I believe that Harry Fry’s eight-year-old has the hold over the domestic rivals but beating ‘Alex’ might depend on the conditions.
Favourite factor: Favourites have secured eight of the last 13 contests, whilst 12 of the 14 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/3—Lil Rockefeller (good to soft)
1/4—Ptit Zig (soft)
3/5—Sternrubin (good to soft – soft - heavy)
1/1—Un Temps Pour Tout (heavy)
3.00: Eight of the last 10 winners have carried 11-1 or less with GO CONQUER and FOURTH ACT selected from the few qualifiers on this occasion. Not too far up the handicap I could give a squeak to FLETCHER’S FLYER, whilst EDUARD represents the bang in form northern yard of Nicky Richards..
Favourite factor: All manner of results have ensued in recent years but from a toteplacepot perspective, four of the last six favourites have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/3—Le Mercurey (soft)
1/2—Trevor Nivernais (soft)
2/3—Irish Saint (good to soft & heavy)
1/3—Triolo D’Alene (good to soft)
1/1—Fletchers Flyer (soft)
1/1—Minella Daddy (good to soft)
1/1—Another Hero (good to soft)
3.35: Five-year-olds have secured seven of the 13 renewals of ‘The Ladbroke‘ (albeit the race now carried another title), and the likes BRAIN POWER, STERNRUBIN, MEET THE LEGEND and GOLDEN SPEAR all expected to be on the scene at the last flight, with the four horses listed in marginal overnight preference. JOLLY’S CRACKED IT is just preferred to WILLOW’S SAVIOUR as the overnight reserve, having dead-heated with STERNRUBIN in the contest twelve months ago. It’s worth noting that aside from the pair that dead-heated last year, WILLOW’S SAVIOUR is the only other course winner in the field.
Favourite factor: Only five of the last 17 favourites have finished in the frame in the toteplacepot finale.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
3/4—Jolly’s Cracked It (good – good to soft - soft)
2/2—Willow’s Saviour (good to soft & soft)
2/3—Sternrubin (good & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued – These stats were compiled before Friday’s sport at the Berkshire track was contested.
9 runners—Nicky Henderson (29/126 loss of 33 points)
8—Paul Nicholls (28/133 loss of 17 points)
5—Jonjo O‘Neill (3/48 – loss of 25 points)
5—Colin Tizzard (9/48 – Profit of 17 points)
4—Harry Fry (10/34 – Profit of 5 points)
3—Tony Martin (0/2)
3—Dan Skelton (4/40 – loss of 5 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (17/93 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Martin Keighley (1/10 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Alan King (11/68 – Profit of 27 points)
2—Mulholland (2/15 – loss of 8 points)
2—Seamus Mullins (1/16 – Profit of 18 points)
2—Oliver Sherwood (5/27 – loss of 12 points)
2—Ian Williams (loss of 1 point)
2—Venus Williams (13/82 (Profit of 35 points)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
73 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £170.40 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle (NH): £60.80 – 8 favourites – 5 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Lingfield: £330.50 – 7 runners – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced