SANDOWN - DECEMBER 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £88.00 (7 favourites - 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (12.20): 3 (Bardd) & 1 (Dashing Oscar)
Leg 2 (12.50): 7 (Royal Debutante), 9 (Ding Ding) & 10 (Tullow Tonic)
Leg 3 (1.20): 4 (Rainy City), 7 (Blue Rambler) & 6 (Arctic Gold)
Leg 4 (1.55): 3 (Murracadja) & 1 (Altior)
Leg 5 (2.25): 9 (Graasten), 1 (Zubayr) & 2 (Brain Power)
Leg 6 (3.00): 1 (Ar Mad), 3 (Sire De Grugy) & 6 (Vibrato Valtat)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: Novice hurdle races produce the best record in the sport for winning favourites, and this opening event is a great example given the results during the last 17 years (see below). Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the last ten renewals between them, whilst Nicky Henderson has secured the last seven renewals, whereby the 14/1 starting price of the winner two years ago defied belief! I know that trends are there to be shot at and if it were the perfect science, I would not have to work every day for a living. That said, I'll take 14/1 winners any day of the week, especially given that Nicky's second (more fancied) runner finished second at 3/1, creating a 53/1 forecast. Don't always believe that I am in the minority for harping on about trainer trends, as the tote forecast (Exacta) paid less than twenty pounds, whereby many punters homed in on Nicky's great record in the race. Nicky would have had any number of options for this opening event whereby the declaration of good ground course winner BARDD jumps off the page. If Nicky is to be denied on this occasion, DASHING OSCAR (Harry Fry’s only runner on the card) might prove to be the 'spoiler' the ranks, despite the fact that Noel Fehily’s mount is asked to give weight away to all nine rivals. A 13 length winner under decent conditions at Bangor the last day, DASHING OSCAR should figure prominently
Favourite factor: Favourites have a great record in this event, having won 12 of the last 17 renewals, with 14 of the successful horses having been returned at odds of 7/2 or less. 16/17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, investors from a win perspective should note that favourites have been beaten at 4/6, 8/11 and 4/5 within the last 14 years.
Record of the course winner in the field:
12.50: Handicap hurdle events beyond the minimum trip offer the worst record for favourites under either code of the ‘sport of kings’ year in and year out. Those were words I opened with two years ago and you can see the result for yourself in the 'favourite factor' section below. Five-year-olds have secured half of the available Placepot positions via two renewals, statistics which include both winners at 14/1 & 5/1. Both winners carried a minimum burden of 11-2. All four vintage representatives hold chances, though the (brief) weight trend suggests that ROYAL DEBUTANTE might get the better of DING DING and Tom Weston’s hat trick seeker TULLOW TONIC close home.
Favourite factor: The inaugural contest set up a great Placepot dividend (£1,939.70), with the frame being filled by horses returned at 14/1-25/1-8/1. Only one of the joint 9/2 market leaders finished in the frame (without winning) twelve months ago.
1.20: Paul Nicholls has saddled seven winners on this corresponding card during the last five years whereby the chance of RAINY CITY is respected, especially as Paul’s winners included those returned at 9/1-9/1-8/1-13/2-5/1. Ian Williams has his team in rude health under both codes just now whereby BLUE RAMBLER can figure prominently, arguably alongside ARCTIC GOLD.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card
1/1—Fingal Bay (good to soft)
1/1—Killala Quay (good to soft)
1.55: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last 12 winners of this prestigious ‘Henry VIII’ Novice Chase with the trainer represented by five-year-old MARRCUDJA, with vintage representatives having won the last four (and five of the last six) renewals. All four horses deserve their places in the line-up, though Nicky Henderson’s ALTIOR looks the main danger which would bring about another Henderson/Nicholls duel, the two trainers having dominated this corresponding meeting down the years.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 17 winners have won at odds of 7/2 or less (14/1, 13/2 and 5/1 winners in the last three years spoil the trend to a fashion), statistics which includes six clear market leaders and two joint favourites.
2.25: 13 of the last 17 contests have been won by horses carrying weights of 10-13 or less, whilst four-year-olds have claimed six of the last fifteen renewals. GRAASTEN is the only runner in the field with ticks in both boxes and Gary Moore’s raider is the first name on the team sheet accordingly. Fellow four-year-old ZEPHYR is the main threat from my viewpoint, with BRAIN POWER expected to secure the bronze model.
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 18 favourites have been beaten in this Listed hurdle event, though 12 of the last 15 winners have been returned in single figures. Eight of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame.
3.00: Three of the last four winners of this event have gone on to win the 'Queen Mother' at Cheltenham in the same season and going back a further year, the silver medallist at Cheltenham was a 4/5 chance to win. Paul Nicholls has saddled eight of the last 16 winners of the ’Tingle Creek’ (including seven of the last 11) and the stable is represented by seven-year-old VIBRATO VALTAT who was the returned beaten favourite twelve months ago. Seven-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals via just 20% of the total number of runners during the period, vintage representatives only having been conspicuous via their absence in two of the other three renewals. AR MAD won the big novice event at the corresponding meeting last year and it would come as no surprise if Gary Moore’s raider went very close here in a renewal which might be easier to win than it has been for several years. Willie Mullins sends over UN DE SCEUX, whilst the declaration of SIRE DE GRUGY adds plenty of interest.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won this ‘Tingle Creek’ event, whilst the last 16 winners all scored at odds of 9/1 or less.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their five years stats at Sandown + level stake profits/losses accrued – Stats compiled before Friday’s sport was contested at the Esher venue:
5—Paul Nicholls (26/155 (loss of 16 points)
4—Tom George (2/25 – loss of 13 points)
4—Nicky Henderson (33/122 (Profit of 24 points)
4—Philip Hobbs (12/72 – loss of 4 points)
4—Gay Moore (22/92 – Profit of 105 points)
3—Charlie Longsdon (4/39 – loss of 20 points)
3—Charlie Mann (3/25 – Profit of 14 points)
3—Ian Williams (3/17 – loss of 3 points)
2—Kim Bailey (1/13 – loss of 3 points)
2—Vic Dartnall (1/12 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Chris Gordon (1/25 – loss of 19 points)
2—Seamus Mullins (0/1)
2—Dan Skelton (loss of 20 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (loss of 18 points)
2—Sheena West (2/8 – Profit of 5 points)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
63 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Aintree: £333.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Chepstow: £30.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wetherby: £141.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: This is a new meeting