NEWBURY - DECEMBER 31
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £29.10 (6 favourites - 5 winners & 1 placed)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (12.10): 6 (Percy Street) & 10 (Saint Contest)
Leg 2 (12.40): 4 (Welsh Shadow), 3 (Sir Ivan) & 10 (Aqua Dude)
Leg 3 (1.15): 8 (Blameitalonmyroots), 12 (Yanmore) & 3 (Willoughby Hedge)
Leg 4 (1.50): 8 (Robin Roe) & 2 (Baltazar D’Allier)
Leg 5 (2.25): 3 (Cepage), 1 (Knockgraffon), 2 (Romain De Senam) & 4 (Icing On The Cake)
Leg 6 (3.00): 7 (Willow’s Saviour) & 3 (Born Survivor)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.10: Nicky Henderson has saddled the winner on the only four occasions in which his stable was represented in this event during the last seven years, whereby PERCY STREET has to be the call at Nicky's local venue. Daryl Jacob’s mount ran in the high nineties on the level whereby any amount of talent jumping timber must surely take the three-year-old close in this interesting juvenile hurdle event. SAINT CONTEST and FINAL CHOICE both have experience which will give them an edge if push comes to shove over the final couple of flights I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen market leaders (via ten renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include six successful favourites from a win perspective.
12.40: Six-year-olds have secured 13 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions, stats which include six of the eight winners at odds of 16/1-8/1-5/1-5/1--4/1**-5/2*. Vintage representatives are 7/6 to improve the ratio from a win perspective before form lines are taken into account on this occasion. The pick of the relevant six horses on this occasion should prove to be WELSH SHADOW, SIR IVAN and AQUA DUDE, given that last year’s 8/1 winner Imagine The Chat was short listed by yours truly.
Favourite factor: Three of the eight market leaders (winners of their respective races) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—My Wigwam Or Yours (good to soft)
1.15: The 'Mandarin' is nothing like the race it once was but with six-year-olds having won three of the latest five contests, this year’s two vintage representatives are expected to go well, namely BLAMEITALONMYROOTS and YANMORE. WILLOUGHBY HEDGE might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have won during the last six renewals, though they were the only market leaders to secure Placepot positions during the period.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/1—Potters Cross (good to soft)
1/4—Bob Tucker (good to soft)
1/4—Horatio Hornblower (good)
1/5—Financial Climate (soft)
1.50: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen renewals of the Challow Hurdle, with the trend probably being extended by ROBIN ROE or the Irish raider BALTAZAR D’ALLIER this time around. Gordon Elliott had his fair share of Christmas winners over the Irish Sea over the festive period, though the trainer probably felt a little ‘punch drunk’ having played second fiddle to Willie Musson in no uncertain terms! ROBIN ROE is marginally preferred though if the five-year-olds are to be denied this year, MESSIRE DES OBEAUX would be the call.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) to date.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
1/2—Major Mac (good)
2.25: Although bottom weighted ICING ON THE CAKE is running from three pounds out of the handicap, it’s impossible to rule Oliver Sherwood’s raider out of the equation with any amount of certainty where I am going to include all four runners in this event, hoping that the horse with the least number of units prevails, which will probably be the afore mentioned runner. The other three are listed in marginal order of preference as CEPAGE, KNOCKGRAFFON and ROMAIN DE SENAM in this ‘win only’ contest.
Favourite factor: This was deemed to be a new race on the card two years ago as the contest was reduced in trip, with the even money favourite finishing last of the three finishers the first year, before last year’s 5/2 market leader made amends. It should not be forgotten however that Cue Card won this race back in 2011 over the additional quarter of a mile.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/1—Knockgraffon (good to soft)
1/1—Cepage (good to soft)
3.00: WILLOW’S SAVIOUR was thrown into a lion’s den on seasonal debut at Ascot before Christmas and though this finale is not going to be that much easier to win, race fitness will make a difference now and the Dan Skelton raider is my each way hope in a fascinating event. That said, ‘Harry’ rides stable companion BORN SURVIVOR and having opted for all four runners in the previous race, I am relying on Dan’s pair to secure the dividend between them, if we are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners) via three contests.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Nicky Henderson (37/164 – loss of 21 points)
6—Dan Skelton (6/39 – loss of 7 points)
5—Paul Nicholls (29/161 – loss of 20 points)
5—Venetia Williams (10/94 – loss of 43 points)
3—Rebecca Curtis (8/61 – Profit of 2 points)
3—Alan King (18/158 – loss of 66 points)
3—Oliver Sherwood (5/36 – loss of 5 points)
3—Evan Williams (2/33 – loss of 9 points)
2—Gordon Elliott (0/1)
2—Warren Greatrex (10/60 – loss of 14 points)
2—Gary Moore (6/71 – loss of 17 points)
2—Anabel K Murphy (0/2)
2—Brendan Powell (1/30 – loss of 19 points)
2—Colin Tizzard (10/79 – loss of 29 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/90 – Profit of 14 points)
2—Nick Williams (3/39 – loss of 11 points)
+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
69 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Warwick: £58.40 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £554.80 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 4 unplaced
Lingfield (A/W): £14.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced