CHELTENHAM - DECEMBER 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £151.80 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (12.05): 5 (Coeur De Lion) & 2 (Defi Du Seuil)
Leg 2 (12.40): 3 (Different Gravey) & 2 (Baron Alco)
Leg 3 (1.15): 10 (Un Beau Roman), 7 (Parsnip Pete) & 5 (Baltimore Rock)
Leg 4 (1.50): 7 (Bouvreuil), 12 (Thomas Brown), 13 (Frodon) & 6 (King’s Odyssey)
Leg 5 (2.25): 3 (Wholestone), 4 (Anchor Man) & 5 (Impulsive)
Leg 6 (3.00): 6 (My Tent Or Yours), 1 (Old Guard) & 2 (The New One)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sandown - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.05: The last five horses saddled by Paul Nicholls in this opening event have secured two gold medals and two of the silver variety between them, the only problem being the defeat of a 2/7 chance during the period. Paul secured an 84/1 four timer on the card four years ago, having saddled 37 winners at the two day fixture during the last seven years. You might imagine than I am particularly frustrated that Paul is not represented this time around, though I have left the stats in for you in terms of next year’s contest! COEUR DE LION eventually got the hang of things to win on debut at Wetherby and will come on a great deal for experience I’ll wager, with connections probably having most to fear from course winner DEFI DU SEUIL.
Favourite factor: 61/63 horses which were sent off at 11/1 or more were beaten during the study period which suggests we should keep fancied horses on the right side, despite a 33/1 chance upsetting the apple-cart three years ago. 13 of the last 16 winners have been returned at 6/1 or less, statistics which includes five successful favourites. 13 of the last 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, only four of the eight odds on favourites have won during the last 16 years.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
1/1—Defi Du Deuil
12.40: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last 13 renewals during which time, six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged. The record is especially impressive given that the vintage was not represented four years ago. DIFFERENT GRAVEY is the lone six-year-old in the field this time around and Nicky Henderson’s High Chaparral gelding was really impressive at Ascot when winning over fences and I’m hoping that Noel Fehily’s mount will win this en route to much better things in the spring. Still entered up for the World Hurdle (quoted at 25/1), I would love to see connections take the chasing route personally, hoping that readers have not lumped on for the World Hurdle! BARON ALCO and ZARIB might represent forecast value if you are looking to go down that route.
Favourite factor: Going back a little further in time, 12 of the 16 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via 15 renewals, statistics which include nine winners.
Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:
2/7—Whisper (good & good to soft)
1.15: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals of this handicap steeplechase event over Cheltenham’s minimum trip, whilst favourites have won four of the last six contests at 5/1-4/1-11/4-11/4**. Course winner UN BEAU ROMAN is fancied to lead the other two eight-year-olds home, with PARSNI PETE and BALTIMORE ROCK offered up if the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion.
Favourite factor: The last 11 winners have been sent off at a top price of 13/2 though it’s worth noting that only four market leaders (winners of their respective events) have finished in the frame during the recent period, negative figures which include pairs of joint favourites in each of the last two years joint favourites.
Record of the course winner in the third contest:
1/14—Sew On Target (good to soft)
1/2—Un Beau Roman (good)
1/3—Keel Haul (good)
1.50: Paul Nicholls saddles FRODON and BOUVREUIL in an attempt to win the race for the fourth time in eight years. Seven-year-old’s lead the six-year-olds 5-4 during the last 3 years, whilst five of the last nine gold medallists carried weights of 11-4 or more to victory. Before going any further (and before I forget to mention it), the local weather forecast has suggested that rain will fall around these parts overnight and well into tomorrow in some areas. Any rain should aid and abet the chance of BOUVREUIL for Paul and his team, whilst other of interest include THOMAS BROWN and KING’S ODYSSEY.
Favourite factor: A fancied horse - if not the favourite - usually wins this event, with 35 victors having been returned at single-figure odds, including 15 of the last 19 gold medallists. In 2007, Tamarinbleu became the longest priced winner in the contest’s history when scoring at 22/1. Just six market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 14 years.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
2/9—Village Vic (soft & heavy)
1/5—Module (good to soft)
1/1—King’s Odyssey (heavy)
1/3—Solar Impulse (good)
1/3—Roman Flight (good)
1/3—Thomas Brown (soft)
2.25: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 5-3 via the last ten contests, having secured five of the last seven events and this year's representative five-year-old WHOLESTONE has a chance to atone for a defeat here at Cheltenham the last day. ANCHOR MAN and IMPULSIVE STAR would be dangerous if on top form in receipt of weight from the main contenders in another fascinating race.
Favourite factor: Market leaders (of one description or another) have secured nine of the 12 renewals thus far, whilst 12 of the last 15 favourites have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:
3.00: Considering that favourites tend to dominate this toteplacepot finale, it remains interesting that five-year-olds have won three of the last six (and four of the last nine) contests. Five-year-old OLD GUARD returns to defend his crown, though the terms and conditions of the race look to favour MY TENT OR YOURS this time around. Throw in THE NEW ONE and we have a wonderful last leg to savour.
Favourite factor: 11 favourites have won during the last 15 years, whilst 12 of the 17 market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the International Hurdle:
3/4—Old Guard (good – good to soft - soft)
5/10—The New One (4 x good to soft & soft)
2/6—Court Mistral (good & good to soft)
2/3—Mister Miyagi (good & good to soft)
1/3—Melodic Rendezvous (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Saturday followed by their seasonal stats at the track + profits/losses accrued – these figures were accurate before Friday’s sport was contested at Prestbury Park:
7 runners—Colin Tizzard (3/21 – Profit of 4 points)
6—Nicky Henderson (2/17 – loss of 17 points)
6—Paul Nicholls (5/21 – loss of 4 points)
5—Dan Skelton (1/8 – loss of 1 point)
4—Evan Williams (1/5 – Profit of 12 points)
3—Alan King (2/12 – Profit of 1 point)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/20 – loss of 12 points)
3—Venetia Williams (0/2)
2—Peter Bowen (No runners)
2—Tom George (1/19 – loss of 2 points)
2—Warren Greatrex (0/2)
2—Paul Henderson (1/1 – Profit of 25 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (2/17 – loss of 2 points)
2—Neil Mulholland (2/10 – loss of 4 points)
+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £34.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winnrs – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield (N/H): £64.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle (A/W): This is a new meeting
Wolverhampton: £126.10 – 5 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 3 unplaced (1 non-runner)