NEWBURY – FEBRUARY 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £601.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.15): 5 (Dead Right) & 1 (High Bridge)
Leg 2 (1.50): 7 (Red Hanrahan), 4 (Tobefair) & 2 (Morello Royale)
Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Native River), 1 (Bristol De Mai) & 3 (Le Mercurey)
Leg 4 (3.00): 2 (Altior) & 5 (Traffic Fluide)
Leg 5 (3.35): 11 (Ballyandy), 10 (Movewiththetimes), 13 (Song Light) & 7 (William H Bonney)
Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Final Nudge), 4 (Vinnie Red) & 2 (Vieux Lille)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: Neil Mulholland had saddled more winners this week (Monday onward) before Friday’s sport was contested than any other handler (under either code) and in receipt of ten pounds form HIGH BRIDGE, connections will be hoping that DEAD RIGHT can take full advantage of the concession. AZZERTI is preferred to Multiculture of the others, believing that the ground will not be soft/heavy enough to give Richard Johnson’s mount a winning chance.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last 13 renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites have won four of the last seven contests. Nine of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/1—High Bridge (good to soft)
1.50: Seven-year-olds have secured six of the last thirteen contests though that said, six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals. The lone six-year-old RED HANRAHAN is expected to figure prominently at the very least, whilst two of the trio of three-year-olds might offer most resistance close home, namely TOBEFAIR and MORELLO ROYALE.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have claimed gold alongside one joint favourite during the last eighteen years. 12 of the 18 favourites have reached the frame.
2.25: Paul Nicholls has won eight of the fifteen renewals of this event to date, and his winning representatives were all class acts. Denman, Kauto Star, See More Business, Shotgun Willy and Valley Henry are an impressive quintet to name but five, notwithstanding the 2013 gold medallist Silviniaco Conti. LE MERCUREY is the stable representative on this occasion. Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst eight-year-olds have won three times since Denman opened the recent scoring on behalf of the vintage back in 2008, though the vintage is not represented on this occasion. NATIVE RIVER is the other seven-year-old in the ‘win only’ field (alongside LE MERCUREY), with BRISTOL DE MAI completing the field. Official figures suggest that Paul’s raider is under the cosh here to land a blow but then again, three runner races have become infamous down the year in terms of the ‘frequency’ of outsiders winning the day. Course and distance winner NATIVE RIVER is one of the few horses (five in total on the Placepot card) to have won before here at Newbury which might just tilt the balance in his favour.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 15 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
2/3—Native River (2 x good to soft)
3.00: Paul Nicholls has won six of the last thirteen renewals and the Ditcheat representative this time around is Dodging Bullets, though the ex-Champion Chaser is a shadow of his former self it seems, not (respectfully) that he was one of best winners of the two mile championship down the years by any means. More likely winners here include ALTIOR and TRAFFIC FLUIDE. The latter named raider would make ALTIOR pull out all the stops if returning to the track in top form after a year off the track. Fox Norton more than deserves his place in the line-up, though trying to concede five pounds to ALTIOR and ten to TRAFFIC FLUIDE looks to be something of a tough ask.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last seventeen renewals, whilst the biggest price returned about the winner was 5/1 during the study period. Fifteen of the eighteen market leaders reached the frame.
3.35: Splash Of Ginge landed my nap (the only offered bet of the day) three years ago when scoring at 33/1 in the 2014 Betfair Hurdle, something I have been 'dining out on' for a long time now! I followed that up by naming the following 20/1 winner Violet Dancer as the first named runner mentioned in my analysis 12 months later. 47 of the last 56 horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions in the Betfair Hurdle carried weights of less than 11-3 (including 12 of the last 14 relevant winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last seventeen gold medallists, though Nicky as without a runner last year. Gary Moore has snared three of the last nine renewals (not represented twelve months ago), whilst five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 5-4 via the last nine contests. No five-year-olds (fitting the weight trend) are included this year whilst Gary Moore is also on the missing list, the stats being left in the mix for your records. Taking all the facts and stats into consideration, my ‘short list’ comprises of BALLYANDY, MOVEWITHTHETIMES, SONG LIGHT and WILLIAM H BONNEY. The quartet are just about listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this famous event in recent years, whilst ten of the last eighteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, which is a very healthy return in such a competitive event.
Record of the course winner in the ‘Betfair Hurdle’:
1/2—Wait For Me (soft)
1/4—Gassin Golf (good to soft)
4.10: I note that FINAL NUDGE is given a 5/1 quote via the overnight trade press staff, odds which I believe would be a fair bit shorter if the eight-year-old has been trained by a ‘stronger name’, rather than the underrated handler David Dennis. Whatever his price, FINAL NUDGE demands to be included in the mix here, arguably alongside VINNIE RED and VIEUX LILLE
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
8 runners—Paul Nicholls (1/18 – loss of 14 points)
4—Nicky Henderson (6/30 – loss of 9 points)
3—Warren Greatrex (2/11 – slight loss)
3—Philip Hobbs (4/16 – Profit of 45 points)
3—Alan King (5/16 – Profit of 5 points)
3—Kerry Lee (0/2)
3—Ben Pauling (1/6 – loss of 2 points)
3—Colin Tizzard (4/13 – Profit of 8 points)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/11)
2—Gary Moore (0/13)
2—Fergal O’Brien (1/2 – level profit/loss)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Warwick: £909.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield: £270.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £212.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
The meeting at Uttoxeter was abandoned