ASCOT – FEBRUARY 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £171.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.15): 2 (Beyond Conceit) & 5 (Topofthegame)
Leg 2 (1.50): 2 (Arpege D’Alene), 4 (Laurium) & 6 (Label Des Oneaux)
Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Chef D’Oeuvre), 6 (Go Conquer) & 3 (O’Faolains Bay)
Leg 4 (3.00): 11 (Divine Spear), 9 (Templeross) & 7 (Air Horse One)
Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Cue Card) & 5 (Taquin De Seuil)
Leg 6 (4.10): 2 (Definite Chance), 1 (Bon Enfant) & 3 (Joe Farrell)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: Five and six-year-old have (equally) shared the last six contests between them and course winner TOPOFTHEGAME and DE DOLLAR MAN make some appeal. That said, Nicky Henderson secured a 32/1 double on the corresponding card last year and BEYOND CONCEIT should take the beating to maintain the recent trend of good results for the Seven Barrows yard.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners, albeit the 2012 (4/7) favourite could only secure the silver medal, whilst a 4/9 jolly was another Placepot casualty despite finishing second in what was a 'win only' contest.
Record of the course winner in the opening contest:
1/1—Topofthegame (good to soft)
1.50: Seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 18 renewals of this ‘Reynoldstown’ event, with ARPEGE D’ALENE and LAURIUM catching the eye at first glance relating to the relevant declarations. Six-year-old LABEL DES OBEAUX is an obvious danger, whilst FLINTHAM is a full brother to Carruthers who snared this race back in 2009. This is a truly fascinating contest.
Favourite factor: The last 18 winners have produced a top priced winner of 17/2. 10 favourites secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/2—Fletchers Flyer (soft)
2/2—Arpege D’Alene (soft)
1/1—Flintham (good to soft)
2.25: 11 of the 15 toteplacepot positions to date have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum weight of 11-3, statistics which include all five (9/1-7/1-4/1-11/4*-5/4*) of the six winners. The weight trends suggest GO CONQUER, O FAOLAINS BOY and CHEF D’OEUVRE will figure prominently and I cannot envisage all three horses finishing out of the frame.
Favourite factor: Three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame to date (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/2—Sausolito Sausage (soft)
1/3—Tenor Niovernais (soft)
1/3—O’Faolains Boy (soft)
3.00: Nine of the last eleven winners (including eight of the last nine gold medallists) have carried weights of 11-2, whilst six-year-olds have won three of the last renewals, with seven-year-olds claiming the other two recent renewals. Taking all the facts and stats into account, DIVINE SPEAR, TEMPLEROSS and AIR HORSE ONE make most appeal, the trio having been listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (11/2**, 11/4 and 9/4) winners.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
3.35: It goes without saying that CUE CARD is the class act on the Ascot card but there is just a chance this this trip could find him out now, especially as the trip looks spot on for TAQUIN DE SEUIL. The latter named Jonjo O’Neill raider could be classed as a little disappointing I guess following some very promising efforts earlier in his career. Granted, the ten-year-old could have the best of his days behind him but as a ten time winner, Jonjo’s representative is no ‘back number’ just yet I’ll wager. CUE CARD would only have to be in ‘Sunday mode’ to prove difficult to beat however, whereby TAQUIN DE SEUIL is offered mainly as the forecast/alternative Placepot call.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 18 market leaders during the study period claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include twelve successful market leaders. Nine of the last eleven favourites have won with the other gold medallists during the period scoring at 11/2 & 4/1.
Record of the course winners in the feature race on the card:
1/1—Cue Card (soft)
2/6—Royal Regatta (2 x good to soft)
4.10: Richard Johnson has ridden two of the five horses this season for Emma Lavelle to winning effect. Richard take the ride aboard FORTUNATE GEORGE with a definite chance in proving the ratio. I don’t make a habit of picking the top three horses in the weight as a general rule of thumb, but precious little else appeals in a disappointing finale from my viewpoint, despite the number of entries.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/2 favourite found one two good for him last year when claiming a Placepot position.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Desert Sensation (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Alan King (1/10 – loss of 8 points)
5—Rebecca Curtis (0/2)
5—Gary Moore (2/4 – Profit of 17 points)
5—Paul Nicholls (6/29 – loss of 2 points)
5—Jonjo O’Neill (0/12)
4—Nicky Henderson (6/23 – Profit of 3 points)
3—Harry Fry (1/8 – loss of 5 points)
2—Sue Gardner (No previous runners this season)
2—Warren Greatrex (1/5 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (2/17 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Sue Smith (No previous runners this season)
2—Colin Tizzard (2.14 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/2)
2—Evan Williams (0/3)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £3,919.70 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Wincanton: £400.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £720.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Kempton: £129.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced