KEMPTON – FEBRUARY 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £3,166.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (1.15): 10 (Alibi De Sivola), 1 (Rainy City) & 13 (Argante)
Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Charli Parcs), 7 (Fidux) & 5 (Percy Street)
Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Frodon) & 3 (Charmix)
Leg 4 (3.00): 4 (River Wylde), 2 (Elgin) & 1 (Capitaine)
Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Irish Saint), 9 (Ballykan) & 5 (Double Shuffle)
Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Sir Note) & 4 (Easy Street)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-2 or more which eliminates the bottom two horses in the handicap if you take the stats seriously, though many will include Nicky Henderson’s Fakenham winner AGRANTE I’ll wager. Seven-year-olds have won four of the last nine renewals and narrowing the field, my ‘short list’ consists of Nicky’s stable companion ALIBI DE SIVOLA and RAINY CITY. Although off the course for over 13 months, it’s difficult to entirely rule Shwaiman out of the equation. There will certainly be worse outsiders on the Kempton card.
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has obliged during the last 17 years with 10 of the 22 market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. 13 contests have slipped by since the only successful favourite scored. Seven recent winners scored at 33/1-22/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-10/1.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/1—River Frost (good to soft)
1/1—Coastal Tiep (good)
1.50: Some of the previous winners of this ‘Adonis’ event have gone all the way to the top of their respective sectors down the years, including Well Chief, Snow Drop and Punjabi, notwithstanding the likes of Binocular, Bilboa and Penzance. Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last ten winners (not represented three years ago), whilst Paul Nicholls has trained four gold medallists via his last eleven representatives. Nicky saddles CHARLI PARCS and PERCY STREET this time around, though Paul Nicholls is not represented. Course and distance winner FIDUX is added into the overnight mix. It's worth noting the horses that leading trainers enter in these races, irrespective of how they run on the day. Relevant representatives (as an example) two years ago both went on to win races within their next two assignments at 16/1 and 4/1. This is the type of thinking we need to put into our analysis of certain races, especially when dealing with inmates of the top stables.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won this event during the last 18 years whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 19/1. 13 of the 18 market leaders finished in the money in this Triumph Hurdle trial.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/1—Charli Parcs (good)
1/1—Fidux (good to soft)
2.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled eight of the last eleven winners of the ‘Pendil’ whereby FRODON comes straight into contention, especially as Paul’s five-year-old has won five of his last seven races in the style of a horse with a fine future in the game. Paul has not won the race with a five-year-old since Napolitain started the trainer’s great run of victories back in 2006 but with (seemingly) only CHARMIX to beat here, FRODON is the confident call.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in recent times, statistics which include ten winners.
3.00: Sire De Grugy was one of the sextet of five-year-old winners of this race during the last eleven years, though it does not look as though this renewal will produce a champion like Gary Moore's grand servant. Vintage representatives ELGIN, CAPITAINE and CAPTAIN FOREZ are listed in marginal order of preference. RIVER WYLDE is also improving well enough to warrant his declaration.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won via the last sixteen renewals of this Grade 2 ‘Dovecoat’ contest, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame. 12 winners have scored at odds of 6/1 or less during the study period.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
3.35: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last ten contests, having snared seven of the last eighteen renewals of this Grade 3 event, whilst 11 of the last 14 winners have carried 10-12 or more. IRISH SAINT is unbeaten at this track (3/3) and the only eight-year-old in the field, whilst hailing from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap. BALLYKAN sits right on the 10-12 mark and if the ground continues to dry out, the Twiston-Davies team could be celebrating another winner. My trio against the remaining ten contenders is completed by DOUBLE SHUFFLE with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to Three Muskateers.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
2/4—Annacotty (good to soft & soft)
2/5—Theatre Guide (good to soft & soft)
1/1—Double Shuffle (good)
3/3—Irish Saint (good – soft – heavy)
1/2—Cocktails At Dawn (good)
1/1—Triolo D’Alene (soft)
1/6—Opening Batsman (good)
4.10: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals yet that edge (if you believe in trends) ‘bypassed’ trainers twelve months ago. Seven of the last nine winners carried a minimum weight of 11-8 and putting the stats and facts together, I’m gambling on SIR NOTE (winner of six of his last nine races) and EASY STREET to land the dividend between them. Out of interest, SIR NOTE is the only horse in the field that possesses ticks in both of the trend boxes and as in the case of Ballykan in the previous race on the card, absence of rain between now and flag fall would be regarded as a definite bonus.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last 16 renewals of this event were secured by market leaders. The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 7/1. The last eleven favourites have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/2—Full Shift (good to soft & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
10 runners—Nicky Henderson (8/33 – loss of 14 points)
6—Alan King (5/18 – Slight profit)
6—Dan Skelton (3/31 – loss of 18 points)
5—Paul Nicholls (6/23 – loss of 1 point)
3—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 6 points)
3—Neil Mulholland (0/8)
3—Venetia Williams (0/4)
2—Harry Fry (1/7 – loss of 4 points)
2—Emma Lavelle (0/5)
2—Nigel Twiston Davies (2/10 – loss of 1 point)
2—Paul Webber (0/9)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
64 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £79.50 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Newcastle: £235.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Lingfield: £181.90 – 6 favourites – No winenrs – 2 placed – 4 unplaced