SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £234.90 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (12.40): 9 (Coeur De Lion) & 1 (Rather Be)
Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Grey Gold), 5 (Pearls Venture) & 1 (Bright New Dawn)
Leg 3 (1.50): 3 (Buveur D’Air), 1 (Irvine) & 2 (Rayvin Black)
Leg 4 (2.25): 4 (Top Notch), 5 (Clan Des Obeaux) & 3 (Le Prezien)
Leg 5 (3.00): 10 (Lord Of The Island), 11 (Behind Time), 1 (Mr Mix) & 2 (Connetable)
Leg 6 (3.35): 5 (beg To Differ), 7 (Sandy Beach) & 3 (Rock The Kasbah)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: It's impossible to start anywhere else than with Gary Moore who boasted an incredible 69% strike rate at Sandown this time last year with nine of his 13 runners having won. Gary had produced over 76 points of level stake profits into the bargain, yet Gary comes into Saturday at the Esher track with a 0/18 ratio! Gary saddles five runners on the card, two of which clash here, namely Altaayil and Ahio. I guess we will have to wait until later in the afternoon to see if Gary can break his duck at the track, given that declarations here also include RATHER BE and COEUR DE LION who look set to represent the respective yards of Nicky Henderson and Alan King to decent effect. The fact that the latter named raider receives a stone here could bring the pair close enough together to test out the photo finish equipment.
Favourite factor: This is a new race at Sandown with which to start proceedings.
1.15: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests, whilst eight of the ten winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 11-5. Unfortunately there are no seven-year-olds in the field this time around, whilst GREY GOLD (withdrawn last year) will hopefully take his chance twelve months on. Venetia William has saddled the last two winners, though her raider BRIGHT NEW DAWN is asked to carry 11-12 under poor conditions, albeit the trainer’s representatives usually thrive with plenty of moisture in the ground. PEARLS VENTURE might need to win a race if he is to get in the ‘Grand Annual’ again at the Cheltenham Festival, having run a fine race to finish fifth last year.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via ten renewals during which time, five market leaders having finished in the frame.
Record of course winners in the field in the second race:
1/2—Grey Gold (heavy)
1/3—Bold Henry (heavy)
2/3—Pearls Legend (good to soft & soft)
1.50: Providing a tumble last time out has not left a scar, IRVINE should go well under conditions which suit the Paul Nicholls raider, the trainer having (equally) shared four of the last five renewals with Nicky Henderson (BUVEUR D’AIR). If RAYVIN BLACK had not been entered as well, the trainers could have expected to dominate the contest but few would deny Oliver Sherwood from winning this event a week on from his tragic loss at Cheltenham. Although only four horses line up, this should still be a cracking contest.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eight favourites have won, whilst seven market leaders during the last 12 years have secured totplacepot positions.
Record of course winner in the field in the third contest on the card:
2/6—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)
2.25: Seven-year-old’s (not represented today) have won five of the last nine renewals of the ‘Scilly Isles’ novice event, as have seven of the last 13 gold medallists. I have left the stats in place as I am aware that some of you keep these records for future use. Five-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick which certainly brings CLAN DES OBEAUX (Paul Nicholls) into the mix, whilst Nicky’ TOP NOTCH has done precious little wrong over the bigger obstacles thus far. Thrown Paul’s other runner LE PREZIEN into the equation and we have another small field which could produce one of those wonderful Sandown finishes we have enjoyed down the years.
Favourite factor: The last 18 winners all scored at odds of 10/1 or less, with ten winning favourites having been recorded in the process. 16 of the 18 winners scored at a maximum price of 9/2, whilst 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. Eight of the last ten market leaders have obliged.
Record of course winners in the field in the ‘Scilly Isles’:
1/3—Amore Alato (good)
1/3—Bold Henry (soft)
3.00: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a maximum of 11-4 in this Grade 3 event which was previously contested back in 2011 before the 2015 renewal. Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last seven winners and the trainer has offered the green light to MR MIX and CONNETABLE who was a winner on this card twelve months ago. This pair are the only horses racing above the weight trend barrier unfortunately though equally, it is difficult to leave them out of the Placepot equation. As far as a potential winner of the race is concerned, my eyes are attracted to LORD OF THE ISLAND and BEHIND TIME.
Favourite factor: Four of the nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4) winners.
Record of course winners in the field in the fifth event:
1/5—Little Boy Boru (soft)
3.30: 13 of the last 15 winners have carried a maximum weight of 11-4, whilst BEG TO DIFFER is the only course winner to have scored under soft conditions, though we have to hope that by the time this race is contested, the ground does not become too deep. SANDY BEACH and ROCK THE KASBAH are marginally preferred to Irish Saint as the main dangers to BIG TO DIFFER.
Favourite factor: Four of the last nine market leaders have won (first favourites to oblige since 1998), whilst eight of the market leaders during the study period have finished in the frame.
Record of course winners in the field in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Irish Saint (good to soft)
2/7—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)
1/1—Beg To Differ (soft)
1/3—Anthony (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratio at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
6 winners—Paul Nicholls (3/16 – Profit of 2 points)
5 runners—Gary Moore (0/18)
4—Colin Tizzard (1/3 – slight loss)
3—Nicky Henderson (5/12 – Profit of 7 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (1/10 – loss of 7 points)
3—Tim Vaughan (0/1)
3—Venetia Williams (0/6)
2—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
There is no history to the meeting at Newcastle