KEMPTON – JANUARY 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £302.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (12.20): 2 (Poker Play) & 1 (Fidux)
Leg 2 (12.55): 4 (Return Flight) & 1 (Always On The Run)
Leg 3 (1.30): 3 (Alpha Male) & 1 (Ballymalin)
Leg 4 (2.05): 3 (Vaniteux), 2 (Vibrato Valtat) & 4 (Activial)
Leg 5 (2.40): 6 (Kalondro), 12 (Bennys King) & 8 (Sam Red)
Leg 6 (3.15): 2 (Kruzhlinen), 3 (No Duffer) & 1 (Volnay De Thaix)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: A great looking dual to start off the meeting, with POKER PLAY set to lock horns with FIDUX, albeit I fully comprehend the ‘seeding’ in place, which is part of the reason for listing the pair in preferential order at the overnight stage. That said, Alan King has saddled the winner of this event twice during the last decade whereby FIDUX is not expected to be cast aside too easily. POKER PLAY comes to the gig with a big reputation which is confirmed by the 2/5 odds I have just witnessed, the price suggesting that David Pipe’s raider (supposedly) represents a 71% chance of scoring at the first time of asking on these shores, which looks a little skinny if truth be told.
Favourite factor: Favourites came to the gig on a four timer two years ago before the run was ended, whilst all 11 winners during the last 12 years have won at odds of 11/2 or less.
12.55: The Skelton representative RETURN FLIGHT is the ‘improver’ in the field and Dan’s six-year-old looks set to snare this prize en route to better things in the spring. ALWAYS ON THE RUN is the forecast call, whilst the return of Rhapando adds interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Kempton card.
Course winners in the second race:
2/2—Always On The Run (good & good to soft)
2/5—Ericht (2 x good to soft)
1/8—Cloudy Bob (good)
1.30: The 10 pounds which ALPHA MALE receives from the ultra-consistent BALLYMALIN should be enough for Nicky Hnederson’s less exposed raider to win the day. BALLYMALIN will not go down without a fight I’ll wager whereby there might not be a great deal of daylight between the pair at the jamstick. Zamparell could sneak into the frame in what will hopefully remain an interesting ‘dead eight’ event.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 joint favourites filled the forecast positions four year's ago before the next two (even money & 10/11) successful market leaders completed a clean sweep for jollies, before last year’s 5/6 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position.
2.05: Colin Tizzard is emerging as a real threat to Paul Nicholls and Nicky Hnederson to become the champion trainer this season, though I doubt that Colin will have the last laugh with Quite By Chance. The other trio look to have his measure under the terms and conditions in place, with VANITEUX expected to lead home VIBRATO VALTAT and ACTIVIAL on this occasion. The first named pair are saddled by the usual pair of trainers who fight out the finish of the season between them, but that might not prove to be the case this term, irrespective of what happens in this contest.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged by 23 lengths before the following ten length gold medallist justified favouritism at even money. We returned to ‘real life’ twelve months ago when the (Paul Nicholls trained) 2/5 favourite was the only horse (of the three contenders) to fail to complete the course.
Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/4—Vibrato Valtat (soft)
1/3—Vaniteux (good to soft)
2.40: Six-year-olds have won six of the nine renewals of the 'Lanzarote' at odds of 20/1--9/1--8/1--9/2*--9/2**--11/4*, whilst eight of the nine winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less and I expect the trend to be continued via KALONDRA, BENNYS KING and SAM RED. The trio is listed in order of preference. If the vintage and weight trends are to be thwarted, JALEO looks to be the obvious choice.
Favourite factor: Five of the 10 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four (7/4—11/4--9/2--9/2**) winners.
Course winners in the fifth event on the card:
1/1—Local Show (soft)
3.15: All eleven horses to have secured toteplacepot positions have carried a minimum burden of 11 stones, statistics which bring the top three horses into play from a Placepot perspective from my viewpoint, namely last year’s winner KRUZHLINEN, NO DUFFER and VOLNAY DE THAIX, especially with the last three gold medallists (from four in total) having carried 11-3 or more. The trio are taken to finish in the order as written.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had finished out with the washing via two renewals of the toteplacepot finale before the10/3 market leader scraped into a Placepot position by finishing third in a nine runner contest two years ago. Life improved for favourite punters twelve months on when the 9/4 market leader duly obliged.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Volnay De Thaix (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Dan Skelton (7/64 – loss of 39 points)
4—Nicky Henderson (66/220 – Profit of 53 points)
4—Ben Pauling (4/21 – loss of 8 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (11/102 – loss of 57 points)
3—Alan King (23/167 – loss of 66 points)
3—Paul Nicholls (32/176 – loss of 36 points)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/52 – loss of 25 points)
2—Tom George (11/59 – Profit of 8 points)
2—Chris Gordon (1/36 – Loss of 15 points)
2—Anthony Honeyball (0/2)
2—Neil Mulholland (3/34 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Brendan Powell (2/36 – loss of 5 points)
2—Colin Tizzard (10/71 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Lucy Wadham (5/30 – loss of 9 points)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Warwick: £508.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced
Wetherby: £152.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield (A/W): £71.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
The meeting at Woverhampton is a new fixture on the calendar