ASCOT – JANUARY 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £69.10 (8 favourites: 4 winners -- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (12.40): 2 (Dolos), 1 (Dino Velvet) & 5 (Percy Street)
Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (More Buck’s), 1 (Johnny Og) & 5 (Colin’s Brother)
Leg 3 (1.50): 5 (Happy Diva), 2 (Whiteout) & 1 (Kotkikova)
Leg 4 (2.25): 10 (Drumcliff), 5 (Jaleo) & 2 (Gibalfaro)
Leg 5 (3.00): 6 (Un De Sceaux) & 1 (Ar Mad)
Leg 6 (3.35): 8 (Dark Flame) & 6 (Fox Appeal)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: There are plenty of negative comments being made about the chance of this meeting being staged but upwards and onward by informing that Alan King has won the last two renewals when represented whereby the chance of DINO VELVET is respected. DOLOS has his measure if we take the official figures seriously, whilst PERCY STREET can be expected to make plenty of improvement following his Newbury debut.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine renewals have been won by market leaders whilst two horses returned at 100/30 prevailed in the first two contests.
1.15: JOHNNY OG returns to defend his crown and the five pound claimer in the plate can only enhance his chance. That said, MORE BUCK’S looks a serious danger, especially with Paul Nicholls having the best record at this fixture during the last five years (five winners). COLIN’S BROTHER is the other horse to mentioned relating to potential winners of the contest.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite was one of two runners that failed to complete the course.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/3—Johnny Og (soft)
1.50: The official assessor will expect hat trick seeker HAPPY DIVA to struggle to win under these terms but Richard Johnson has been booked to ride Kerry Lee’s improving King’s Theatre mare and I believe she could be up to the task, certainly from a Placepot perspective. Willie Mullins took the race twelve months ago whereby WHITEOUT demands plenty of respect, whilst KOTKIKOVA completes my trio against the remaining four contenders in this Grade 2 contest which is confined to mares.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective to date, statistics which include three winners.
2.25: Five-year-olds came to the gig on a four timer last year, representatives claiming silver and bronze medals when both returned at 10/1. Vintage representatives are 2/1 to get back to winning ways here before the form book is consulted, with GIBALFARO and JALEO boasting each way claims from my viewpoint. Whether either horse can keep tabs on six-year-old DRUMCLIFF at the business end of proceedings remains to be seen. Out of interest, six-year-olds have won the other three contests during the last six years.
Favourite factor: Just two of the twelve favourites have obliged to date, whilst just three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/1—Adrien Du Pont (good to soft)
1/1—Wait For Me (good to soft)
3.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last eight winners of this Grade 1 event, three of which were returned as favourites. Paul’s raider DODGING BULLETS will be anything but one of the favourites here, with defending champion UN DE SCEAUX back in town, notwithstanding the chance of AR MAD. Elsewhere, the booking of Davy Russell for TOP GAMBLE catches the eye and there will be worse outsiders on the Ascot card I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: 14 of the 16 winners since the turn of the Millennium have been returned at 5/1 or less, stats which include eight successful favourites.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/2—Dodging Bullet (soft)
2/6—Royal Regatta (2 x good to soft)
1/1—Un De Sceaux (soft)
3.35: 10 of the 14 winners carried weights of 11-1 or less whilst Paul Nicholls has saddled two of the last three winners at 12/1 and 11/2. Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last seven contests and putting all the stats and facts together, my short list consists of DARK FLAME, FOX APPEAL and IRISH SAINT.
Favourite factor: Three of the 14 renewals have fallen the way of the favourite, whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Regal Encore (good to soft)
1/5—Cold March (good)
2/4—Irish Saint (good to soft & heavy)
1/6—Fox Appeal (soft)
1/2—Dark Flame (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Paul Nicholls (31/144 – Loss of 13 points)
3—Nicky Henderson (31/140 – loss of 32 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (17/98 – loss of 2 points)
3—Alan King (11/73 – Profit of 22 points)
3—Kerry Lee (0/1)
3—Gary Moore (6/68 – loss of 2 points)
3—Nick Williams (3/27 – loss of 10 points)
2—Harry Fry (11/38 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Anthony Honeyball (1/7 – Profit of 14 points)
2—Willie Mullins (5/14 – loss of 6 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/55 – loss of 32 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/46 – loss of 19 points)
2—Evan Williams (4/46 – loss of 13 points)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
55 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £22.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Taunton: £76.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £57.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
There is no history relating to the Newcastle meeting