NEWCASTLE – JULY 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend - was Turf until 2015 - now A/W:
2016: £125.50 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle:
Leg 1 (1.50): 9 (Mazzini), 1 (Al Qahwa) & 2 (Amazour)
Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Ornate), 11 (Koropick) & 9 (Perfect Pastures)
Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (London Prize) & 7 (I Am Not Here)
Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Natural Scenery), 6 (Seamour), 14 (Lord George) & 18 (Champagne Champ)
Leg 5 (4.05): 11 (Carthage) & 8 (Go George Go)
Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Rockwood), 6 (Auspicion) & 7 (Archipeligo)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well. In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 29/60, which equates to over 48%. If you put that record into terms of odds, it would suggest that these runners are 21/20 to win their respective events! Upwards and onward by informing that only five four-year-olds contested last year’s first running of this event but it was enough to secure a 117/1 Exacta forecast between two vintage representatives. Just three relevant horses have been declared this time around, with MAZZINI slightly preferred to AL QAHWA and THE COMMENNDATORE this time around. AMAZOUR returns to defend his crown and his 2/2 record over course and distance make the five-year-old a definite threat. Ismail Mohammed winners tend to be well backed so watch out for any market support in the lead up to the contest.
Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position last year when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
2.25: With nine of the last twelve gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals. Quite why ORNATE is the only vintage representative baffles yours truly on this occasion and with four of Robert Cowell’s last twelve runners having won, Ornate’s 10/1 quote this morning makes plenty of win and place appeal. Hugo Palmer was boasting 3/3 recent stats at one point yesterday before his next four runners capitulated, though with his inmates showing improved form, Hugo’s KOROPICK (the only three-year-old in the field) is also kept on the right side from a Placepot perspective. The world and his dog seem to be aware that Michael Easterby tends to do most of his winning on the flat in the early months of the season and with 20 gold medallists having been recorded in April/May/June this year, Michael’s PERFECT PASTURES completes my trio again the other eight contenders.
Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
3.00: Punters latched onto last year’s winner who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and LONDON PRIZE will be equally popular to go close here, especially as the Ian Williams raider ran the track well to finish second to Natural Scenery (my tip for the big race) back in February and it might only take a repeat of that effort to give the bookmakers a real fright leading up to the main event. Connections are expected to have most to fear from I AM NOT HERE whose trainer Brian Ellison secured a 23/1 double yesterday via both codes of our favourite sport.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 market duly obliged.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/1—I Am Not Here
3.30: 14 of the last 19 winners of the ‘Pitman’s Derby’ have carried weights of 8-12 or less and I could give chances to both LORD GEORGE and Rod Millman’s 25/1 chance CHAMPAGE CHAMP form that sector of the handicap. That said, I am sweet on the chance of NATURAL SCENERY with four-year-olds having secured 11/27 contests in recent times. Josephine Gordon is riding like a ‘woman possessed’ right now, though she will not be happy to read that gender is mentioned as she is now well and truly ‘one of the lads’. I’ll wager that Ben Curtis will be told to be a little more patient than when booting SEAMOUR for home with the race seemingly won a furlong from home twelve months ago. His chance from a Placepot perspective is there for all to see again, whilst Natural Beauty’ stable companion GOOD RUN is expected to outrun his 20/1 quote. For all that I quoted the long term weight stats to open the analysis for this event, it’s worth noting that four of the last five winners have carried 9-3 or more to victory, stats which suggest that NATURAL SCENERY and SEAMOUR could go clear of the field on the run to the line.
Favourite factor: Six of the last 12 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 19 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 12 of the 23 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of the course winners in the Northumberland Plate:
2/2—Fly Me To The Stars
4.05: GO GEORGE GO was a fine example of the talent that Alan Swinbank had in training horses and ‘Plate day’ will not quite be the same with Alan and Dandy Nicholls in attendance this year. Sally Haynes has picked up the thread to fine effect however and tears could be in the offing if this four time course and distance winner can go in again today in front of the massive crowd. Ben Curtis was just touched off in this this race too following the ‘Plate’ last year but I have a mind that the pilot could go close aboard CATHAGE here, albeit the six-year-old is seemingly only the second string (of three in total) that Brian Ellison has declared. Fellow inmate SUITOR has obvious claims, but CARTHAGE represents value for money from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite found one too good from a win perspective, though Placepot players were happy with the outcome.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
4/5—Go George Go
4.45: Karen McLintock remains one of the most underrated of trainers in my book and Karen has a good chance of putting the record straight here having declared ROCKWOOD. Fellow course and distance winners AUSPICION and ARCHIPELIGO might offer most resistance as the field aim for the jamstick.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader sent the majority of punters back into the city centre in a buoyant form, even though it was via a southern trained (Luca Cumani) winner!
Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newcastle card on Saturday:
2—Saeed Bin Suroor
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
86 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chester: £122.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Doncaster: £263.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Lingfield (turf): £127.10 - Last year’s meeting was contested on the A/W track
Newmarket: £214.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Windsor: £310.90 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
York: This is a new meeting