NEWMARKET - JULY 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £29.00 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.45): 11 (Sizzling) & 7 (Poetic Charm)
Leg 2 (2.15): 7 (Cheval Blanche), 8 (Tropical Rock) & 3 (Gymnaste)
Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (City Of Joy), 1 (Masham Star) & 7 (Maths Prize)
Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Bossy Guest), 2 (Buckstay), 3 (Tashweeq), 14 (Sir Dancealot) & 15 (Withernsea)
Leg 5 (4.00): 6 (Gustav Klimt) & 3 (Etefaaq)
Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Caravaggio) & 7 (The Tin Man)
Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.45: Aidan O’Brien’s record of 2/4 at the meeting this week is backed up by a 10/1 runner up which points the way to SIZZLING in the opening event, a contest Aidan won two years ago. Only Charlie Appleby has saddled more winners on the July course this week (3/12 – see all the stats below) whereby his Dubawi filly POETIC CHARM is taken as the principle danger, especially as the filly holds an entry in an Irish Group 1 race later in the year.
Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety whilst securing Placepot positions.
2.15: 18 of the last 20 winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-1 or less and the trio to home in on from this sector of the weights (9/10 qualify) from my viewpoint are CHEVAL BLANCHE, TROPICAL ROCK and GYMNASTE. That said, I’m sure there will be worse outsiders on the card than MARIE OF LYON who looks overpriced at around 18/1 at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last 20 years, whilst 14/26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
2.50: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried 9-1 or more and it's worth noting that just 16 'qualifiers' have run in total via the last four contests to produce decent priced winners at 9/1, 8/1 & 11/2. There are only five horses to choose from this time around, with the pin coming down on the side of CITY OF JOY, MASHAM STAR and EXECUTIVE FORCE via the relevant quintet. Of the horses below the ‘superior weight barrier’, MATHS PRIZE appears to be the value for money option.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last eighteen years, whilst eleven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
3.25: The last nine winners carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, as have 21 of the last 23 horses to have secured Placepot positions. Although this scenario ‘only‘ eliminates nine (possibly eleven via claims) of the 20 declarations, all assistance is required in trying to track down the winner of the Bunbury Cup, as ever was the case. Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, whilst five-year-olds have 'dominated' of late, snaring four of the last six contests. My quartet against the field take into account the facts and stats are BOSSY GUEST, BUCKSTAY (joint favourite for race last year), TASHWEEQ and WITHERNSEA in the Placepot mix. That said, I will probably have an each way saver (single) on VON BLUCHER at 33/1 (thereabouts), albeit the ex-John Gosden raider carries sixteen ounces less than what the weight trend recommends. There is no way that the four-year-old would have been priced up at those odds if John still trained the course winner and I would not be surprised if P J McDonald’s mount figured prominently. SIR DANCEALOT could outrun his price to reward each way investors too.
Favourite factor: 10 of the last fourteen favourites have been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures on nine occasions), whilst only eight of the twenty one market leaders have reached the frame,
Record of course winners in the ‘Bunbury Cup:
1/4—Buckstay (good to firm)
1/1—Tashweeq (good to soft)
1/5—Bossy Guest (good to firm)
1/2—Von Blucher (good to firm)
4.00: 'Team Hannon' have saddled five of the last sixteen winners of this race which is named after the 1983 July Stakes winner Superlative. Richard saddles ETEFAAQ this time around, albeit Aidan’s O’Brien’s Curragh winner GUSTAV KLIMT will probably take the beating. You can certainly ignore the 7/4 quote in the trade press about the favourite who might get close to even money by the time that flag fall arrives. Aidan’s juveniles have run well at the meeting thss far and his Galielo colt is expected to go one better than his beaten favourite last year who ran behind a 7/1 winner trainer by Charlie Appleby who saddles AQABAH this time around.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have claimed win and place positions during the study period, statistics which include seven winners.
Record of the course winner in the Superlative Stakes:
1/1—Etefaaq (good to soft)
4.35: In previous years I suggested that without wishing to upset connections, I would compare market leaders in the July Cup to top graders at the White City all those (halcyon) years ago, whilst other supposed ‘top notchers’ were A3/A4 types. Tough talk I know but in yesteryear, horses fancied for this race did not beat each other (like graders at a greyhound stadium) in turn, as was the case for a good while until last year. I readily admit that the last couple of renewals have now looked like the real deal and in CARRAVAGIO we have a storm trooper who has that rare quality of speed and fortitude/resilience, call it what you like. Unbeaten thus far following six assignments, it might need an off day to beat him, rather than any of his rivals, albeit they are a decent group of thoroughbreds and no mistake. LIMATO is good on his day (won this race last year) but the days are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, whereas I am sick and tired of THE TIN MAN proving me wrong on so many occasions!
Favourite factor: Ten of the last 15 favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst five market leaders have won during the last 15 years, offering strength to my argument regarding the calibre of contenders in recent years.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Limato (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday followed by their stats at the July meeting this week:
5 runners—Richard Fahey (0/9)
5—Mark Johnston (1/8 – winner at 8/1)
4—Charlie Appleby (3/12 – winners at 9/2, 7/2 & 11.10*)
4—John Gosden (1/11 – winner at 9/4*)
4—Richard Hannon (1/12 – winner at 13/2)
4—Aidan O’Brien (2/5 – winners at 6/4* & 11/8*)
3—Michael Bell (0/3)
3—Mick Channon (0/1)
3—William Haggas (0/2)
2—Karl Burke (No previous runners this week)
2—Ed Dunlop (1/2 – winner at 7/1)
2—Mick Easterby (No previous runners this week)
2—Charlie Hills (0/6)
2—Gary Moore (No previous runners this week)
2—Hugo Palmer (0/5)
2—George Peckham (No previous runners this week)
2—Kevin Ryan (0/2)
Trainers with 1 runner on Saturday who have saddled a winner this week:
1/1—Hughie Morrison (11/4)
1/2—Jeremy Noseda (6/1)
1/5—Roger Varian (13/2)
+ 31 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on Saturday’s card
85 declared runners
For the record, three other trainers have saddled one winner each (all from three opportunities) but are not represented at Newmarket today, namely Andrew Balding (7/1), Brian Meehan (7/2) & Stuart Williams (7/1) = total of 15 winners at Newmarket this week going into today’s final day
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ascot: £41.70 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 4 unplaced
Chester: £22.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced
Hamilton: £16.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Salisbury: £122.60 – 6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
York: £448.90 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced